Briefly- From secession to accession and its implications

The accession of four regions to Russia after the show of overwhelming will of the people with referendum, brought about some fundamental implications. One of them already has been declared; “this is not a “special Military Operation” to defend the Russian and Russian speaking people anymore”, “this has become the defense of Russian territory and Russian citizens”. So, the SMO has lost its meaning, and now it has become a war of defense- which either declared officially or not is a “declaration of war” on Ukraine. It is aligned not only with the Russian constitution but with the international law (regardless of the admittance of West). The fight in these areas was mostly being waged by the militias and they were in command of the ground. Now they become the part and under the command of Russian military.

As one of the comrades pointed out,” the Russian bureaucrats at the service of oligarchs are as calculating as the American counterparts when it comes to strategize the short and long-term interests of the class they serve. In reality, they are more calculating and sinister because they all have studied Leninism and Soviet History and know how to use that for their own interests.”  Accession of regions removes the burden of all other countries of “recognizing” the “regions gained autonomous status with secession.” It is now not an issue as far as they are concerned; they are obligated to neither recognize nor reject.

The decisive implication, other than the “limitless war” comes with it, is related to other regions with large Russian and ani-Euromaidan population. Now the fear of not being recognized if and when they succeed in secession from Ukraine is gone. They do not have to fight for the “autonomy” but to merge with Russia.

If we go back to the assessment of Donbass Leninists in July which summarized that the “Russian bourgeoisie is taking it slow with the consideration of not alienating the local population and giving ample time to Kiev neo-Nazis to sit at a negotiation table. At the same time, considering the population and progressive ideological make up of Dnieper, Nikolayev, Odessa they are preparing themselves and the locals to further advance to these regions in order to force Ukraine bourgeoisie to an agreement much heavier than the one that they agreed in Istanbul, but did not comply with... Due to the Western, especially that of US pressure not to sit for an agreement, it is most likely that Kharkiv, Dnieper and Nikolayev are on the agenda and will be “liberated” in the process. Depending on the developments during this phase, Odessa is a likely choice to cut Ukraine from accessing to Black Sea. All of which has the expectation of an internal conflict within Ukraine bourgeoisie and the removal of “Euromaidan”, “US-NATO” bourgeois clique from power by the Ukrainians themselves.”

It looks like this assessment will confirm itself to be correct. Even though Putin said that they are ready to sit down for an agreement, concluding his words with “new regions are not negotiable” and with the “ultimatum to Ukraine to withdraw all its forces from these regions”, clearly confirms the comrade's assessment that Russia is as eager as the US-NATO to drag this war till it gets the best gain-deal out of the war.  The longer the war is, the larger the Ukraine loss of territories will be- but most likely limited to the regions mentioned.

It Is Within the possibilities that Zelensky may be removed from the power somehow once the Russian starts the all-out war and invades few or all of these regions. However, considering the US-NATO stand, which is unlikely except in the case where some serious changes occur in Europe with the uprising of people due to economic discontent and fear of nuclear war. This, as the Donbas Comrade mentioned in July, is one of the crucial elements of Russian policy of influencing the “public opinion” by not using its air force heavily in Ukraine, taking the war easy through the winter with expectation of uprisings. Otherwise, European lackey bourgeoisie and their bureaucrats will follow the US-NATO directives. This brings the question of other neighboring countries and their stance to the most likely escalated war. Especially Estonia with its bordering Russian populated region of Narva and to a degree Finland, Latvia, Lithuania may be a target for Russians if their attitude is considered dangerous by Russians.

Similarly, any attempt against Kaliningrad by Lithuania and/or by Poland would be another serious issue to expand the war.  Would the war go as far as a nuclear war? Possible but unlikely.  The US is weakening European countries and annexing them economically and politically. Its preference is proxy war where it can get richer in short time to balance its economic crises by selling weapons and ammunitions, gas, oil etc., without directly participating in the war.

Why is nuclear war possible but unlikely?  People have a habit of looking at the event itself, but not in the big picture. They think that this war will trigger the “big picture”, while in reality it is the "big picture" that triggered this war. The “big picture” war is already going on in different forms. If the US-NATO believed in its capability and profitability, they would have already been involved militarily.

The big picture is that if Russia loses, that will bring about the beginning of the end of North Korea and China-and so of Iran and others for that matter.  Thus, Russia is not alone in this war.  North Korea has already declared his willingness to support militarily, China yesterday reiterated the military alliance in the case of a war that threatens the existence of Russia.  A direct nuclear war between these two blocks could not be a winning war for any side, especially for Europe, South Korea, Japan and to a large degree the US. Finance capital, Military industrial complex are not adventurists but profiteers. They only take calculated risks.

In conclusion, the implications of “accession-merging “indicates that this was a great politics played by Russia which;

1)   gave the legitimate reason to upgrade the war from Special Military Operation to all-out war, which includes bombing any place in Ukraine and beyond – including the Zelensky’s bunker

2)      gave excuse to its friendly countries not to make any statement or take counteraction

3)      opened up its horizon to “liberate” the other heavily Russian and anti-Euromaidan regions

4)    gave the chance -in worse case- to sit down for an agreement with much better conditions than the Istanbul agreement

5)      gave the chance to implement its long-term goal of influencing European peoples’ opinion against their own governments

6)      gave the opportunity to show the other bordering nations not to be tempted by US-NATO

7)    (in combination with the sabotage to gas line) gave the chance to present itself to Asian, African, and Latin American countries that Russia is not so much different than them -as far as the US-NATO aggressive and imperialist policies are concerned.

Overall, it seems that Russian bureaucrats in this issue- and so in the economic and other sanction issues- outplayed the US counterparts. This coming month and following three months will be drawing a better picture of what will happen- a unipolar world where one can ride its horse freely without any interference, or a multi-polar world in where one cannot.