New General Secretary of Vietnam CP – expectations and fears

Following the death of the General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong at the age of 80, 67 years old To Lam was elected as the new General Secretary before the Communist party congress scheduled for 2026.

Lam was born in 1957, graduated from the People’s Security Academy, officially admitted to party in 1982, professor in Law and Security, worked at the ministry of Public Security since 1979, became  Secretary of the Party Committee in 2020,in  2016 became a member of the 12th-tenure Politburo, and Deputy Minister of Public Security.

Well known difference between the two leaders is that Trong was a committed Marxist , may be due to his life time experience in security  as the head of  Public Security Ministry, his ideological commitment is not publicly known.  However, he is well known with his relentless fight against corruption as the “enforcer” of Trong. As the head of Public Security, he followed Trong ‘s policy that “ no one is off limits and no exception” policy and the practice against corruption. That policy proven in practice with the ousting of seven members  out of 18 members of the Politburo formed in 2021.

The fear voiced by  the (domestic and external)  “corrupters”  is that he may be following Xi Jinping foot steps and becoming fiercer against the corruption. What they fear most is that  five Politburo members comes from Lam's old ministry and three others from the army. However, one of the Politburo member, former public security lieutenant general, Pham Minh Chinh, became premier, the joy of internal and external “investors” and corrupt ones did not last long, at least not to their expectations. Their wishful thinking (and in a way confession) is that at the end of 18 months, Lam will not be able to stay as Communist Party leader, because his corruption investigations will lead his opponents to join together to resist his confirmation as Trong's successor at the Party Congress on early 2026.

Son of a decorated Vietnam War hero who had become a provincial police chief. According to the VinUniversity senior political lecturer Hai Hong Nguyen " there will be some slowdown in the decision-making between now and the 14th Congress (in 2026), and security will be further tightened." I have to remind that the   VinUniversity is a private, not-for-profit university established by Vingroup – the largest private conglomerate in Vietnam. The University has built strategic collaborations with Cornell University and the University of Pennsylvania in the US.

Another typical Vietnamese “Think Tank group’s” chairman, Ha Hoang Hop, says that "The emphasis on state-owned enterprises, while providing a buffer  has also hampered innovation and competitiveness. The next leader will need to balance stability with bolder economic reforms, attracting foreign investment and fostering a more entrepreneurial environment."

Ironically, as usual none of these “Think Tank” groups, or say, the NED financed and supported organisations, institutions would dare to talk about the “dependence” on the US but continuously emphasize the growing “dependence” on China. They complain that “Government  cracks down on civil society as well as corruption.” What they mean as civil society is the NED (National Endowment for Democracy) NGOs (non local-government  organisations but external government organisations).

Lecturer Nguyen of the  VinUniversity predicts that the Communist Party will keep Lam as interim leader and says that "He still needs to walk within the communist and socialist rail track, as well as the thoughts of Ho Chi Minh. But of course, we will not hear ideological statements from Lam, as we used to hear from Trong…I think under Lam's leadership, we will see regime security tightened more on the one hand, while economic liberalization and foreign relations are enhanced on the other.”

Coincidently or interestingly the approaches of North and South Vietnam to economy differs in its context except that of the NGOs spread in both regions that favors the private sector over state ownership of the large industries. They usually spin the facts by mixing the heavy industry ownership with the small enterprise ownership in their assessments and arguments. They admit that State-owned enterprises are as a dominant contributor to the development of Vietnam’s economy. The admittance follows with a “but”.  They say, “But because the state sector is inefficient, and Vietnam is increasingly integrating internationally, the private sector is growing.”  Vo Xuan Vinh, Professor of Finance and Dean of the Institute of Business Research, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City states that “To achieve its goal of escaping the middle income trap and building a prosperous nation by 2045, Vietnam should shift from a ‘picking the winners’ approach to one that promotes a fair and competitive business environment, so that a ‘level playing field’ can be established for all sectors to compete in”.

The flood of “Western Narratives and point of view” from  a mounting  NGOs and NED financed and supported groups, media outlets, academicians, bribery, corruption  influencing the decision making and thus  Vietnam is at a cross road. It is highly unlikely that there will be a drastic change during this 18 months of To Lam’s leadership. However, the consequences of the decisions taken at the Congress of Communist Party may be more indicative of the direction Vietnam will follow. We will wait and see.

Erdogan A
Vietnam 2024