Long term implications of Syria's collapse ; a Marxist Leninist evaluation
INTRODUCTION
As I have pointed out in the previous article, such events cannot be analyzed in a simplistic way solely based on the event itself and based on just "what happened" and who benefited from it , but in connection with what the implications of that event in the medium and long term by making dialectical connection between the region specific (medium term implications) and world in general(long term implications). The further developments in the event and information surfaced enable us to make a better judgement and make a better assessment for the initial, the medium and long term implications of the event. The “causes” of such developments do not derive from one reason but a cumulative dialectically connected reasons. Each party involved do and may have its own reasons both colliding and coinciding with the others in its character. At the initial phase it may coincide but in the medium and long term it may contradict even to an antagonistic scale. Unlike the common narratives like “coalition”, “alliance”, they are not in a fixed “coalition” but it is a “marriage of convenience” in which each is pursuing its own goal. That is why to stuck in the subjective assumed reasons for the event neither explains the causes of it nor its medium and long term implications. An assessment from the wrong, subjective reasons will not tell the entire truth and cannot evaluate the implications that will follow.
The
information surfaced following the event within a week confirmed the high
likely possibility of it being a trap
set out in the Middle East by the US-West, Israel and Turkiye. The plot that
extended to Syria and will possibly intended extending to Iraq, Lebanon and Iran for the policy
and practice of "extending
Russia", is spontaneously being turned in to a trap of "extending
US-West-Israel" by Russia and China. That may be a consequence of
China's infiltration to CIA intel or Russia realizing the trap at the last
moment; either way it does not weigh decisive importance. What is important is
that Russia did not fall in to the trap but pulled the US-West-Israel in to
their own trap by just cutting its losses in Syria and excluding itself from
the conflict in Syria. It does not seem Russia set that trap but the trap of
culprits has become a trap for
themselves when Russia cut its involvement.
It
is correct that Syria is a highly important country for Russia and China for
their security both strategically and economically. In this sense Russia is the
loser in the short term and US-Israel, more so Turkiye is the big winner in the
short term. However, each such events will bring with itself medium and long
term implications that may easily change the situation against them
drastically.
As
a policy and practice Russia and China is concentrated on
"securing" their borders through strategic and economic alliance, in
Ukraine case, through military action, especially with the neighboring countries.
The
policy and practice of US-West and Israel is and has been creating chaos,
regime changes, and military conflicts through out the regions not only in
the specific but world wide which requires costly military and/or civil
professional involvement in all of them. Constant bombing, military incursion
into other countries, into bordering countries with tanks and other mechanized way requires
long term logistics, logistical support; without large troops on the ground and
logistical support for them no incursion will be sustainable but vulnerable.
In
Syria specific, bombing the civilian and military infrastructure of Syria may
be beneficial in the short term, but that is highly questionable in the long
term for it will be alienating not only the people of Syria but the
"new government" and the Jihadists.
In
this specific and related to Israel for the medium and long term implications,
one has to make a comparison with the size of Gaza and Syria and Hamas and
Jihadists as far as their military power and effectiveness. While making
this comparison one has to keep the historical examples and realities in mind.
Although the Jihadists have the same ideology at the core, they are not homogenous in the application of the ideology to the practical life. That fact
is in addition to the fact that they have “power struggle” amongst themselves.
Contrary
to the misconception, just because the Jihadists are supported by some external
forces does not make them permanently a proxy of their donors. History
has proven this fact and the gradual or prompt changes in their character and
attitudes; whether in reaction to the attitudes of their original donors or
financial, military changes in their power. Striking examples are Afghanistan
and Palestine. In Afghanistan, once proxy Taliban, Hamas in Gaza once turned in
to a proxy as they were being supported against the PLA in order to divide and
conquer Palestine turned against their donors in a decisive way.
Keeping
this fact in mind and considering the size and power and various factions of
the Jihadists in Syria, there is no guarantee that they will not turn
against Israel and the US-West. There is, however, more reasons for the
possibility of this transformation in
the long run.
That
is why, the medium and long term implications of the Syrian event may and most
likely will, in the long run, turn
against the interests of the "current winners of the short term”.
Let's
never forget, what happened and will be happening in Syria and beyond is only a
part of the conflict between the declining unipolar world order led by
the US and multi polar world order led by Russia and China. Latest plot in Syria, succeeded -for short term, the
other plot in South Korea failed miserably, In Romania so far successful, In
Moldova partly successful for they won the majority of votes of people living
in Europe but lost the majority in the country,
in Georgia still going on, in Armenia who knows. Looking at the
increasing protests In Pakistan it seems it will work against them badly,
sooner or later, in Bangladesh it is in a questionable state now, they are
losing the South East Asian countries one by one in a big way... Neo-Cons policy
and practice of "extending
Russia" is turning in to the policy and practice of "extending US" to a critical scale.
Behind
the collapse
It
has come to the light that no one involved in had any expectation of the
collapse of Syrian military and government so fast. It was a shock for all. The
collapse of Assad regime was a part of plan but without any expectation of its
speedy collapse. I had asked the question; “Why is it that the army of
Syria who fought vigorously 4 years against the Jihadist directly supported by
the US-West with air cover, all of a sudden did not fight against them? Is
the “not to defend "order to
generals given true? It seems that two factors played a role in the
dissolution of military; extremely low wages of military officers and personnel
who are easy to be bought off and the decision of Assad and government
officers.
There
are sufficient enough information that Assad was distancing himself from Russia
and Iran and aligning himself with some Arab countries in the Gulf. That may be
a result of the setup by US-West which brought about the alienation of Syria
from Russia and Iran. Looking at the information surfaced, Assad refused the offers of Russia and Iran to
train and organize its army a couple
years ago. He probably was not expecting any insurgency despite the fact that
Russia and Iran warned him months ago about the possibility of an attack from
Idlib. Adding to this the meetings of Assad representatives with the representatives of HTS for the
peaceful transfer of power, although it does not diminish the importance of CIA-Mossad
and MIT involvement, in some sense this
may have boosted the Jihadists self
confidence and presented them some "independence".
Looking
at the result, it’s confidence, dissolution of Syrian Army, Assads delusion and
reproachment with the Gulf states and ignoring Russia and Iran’s offers and
warnings paved the way for a quick “collapse” rather than a “military victory”
through military conflict.
Second
phase of the development – What will the implications be for Syria in
particular and for the involved parties in general?
SYRIA
Based
on the developments and implications, the existence and continuation of Syria
as an entity seems to be very bleak.
The
first inevitable question comes to mind is to be; “will an infighting for power
start amongst the “jihadists”? Although they are ideologically similar, their
concept of governing and laws are varied. The stronger ones, SNA and HTS are
largely controlled by Turkiye but there are numerous other factions within and
without HTS. That brings forward the question of a “power fight” and the
question of fragmentation of Syria. Will Syria be "Balkanized"-divided in a
couple different regions and "new States"? Considering the regions
controlled by various groups and their “backers”, there is a possibility . The
most important of them are the US backed
SDF in the North East of Syria, Turkish influenced HTS in Baghdad, Turkish
controlled SNF in the north, and US-Israeli controlled ISIS in the East and
south. HTS is an umbrella organization of various factions within which the
power struggle is waged in different form and scale. All the frozen
conflicts within the participating parties and within the region have become or
will become ripe to be reignited.
Despite
all the expected fantasy based fallacies of the Western Media, there is no
functioning government in Syria. Let’s assume a government is formed. Due to
its economic problems, hunger, and lack of energy for even the revival ad
survival of small enterprises, will force the government to concentrate on
“food and energy” supply in a country which is rich in these resources but
under the control and theft of the US
backed SDF. That is why the North East
issue will become a primary and serious issue for the new government.
We
read and see from Western Media and its extensions news stating that "HTS
and SDF" agreements are being made". These are the same fantasy and
fallacies based propaganda disseminated by the Western Media and their
extensions about Ukraine which are being
practiced in reference to Syria.
Proceeding
from the fact that HTS is nothing but largely a gang in the hands of Turkiye;
speaking about agreements between SDF and HTS has no validity and
credibility. On the Western and extension media, in the North East, defeats
are presented as "agreements", protests of people are presented as
"celebrations", desertions and splits of Arabs from the regional
power have never been mentioned. SNA, a big partner of HTS has already attacked
and grabbed Manbij. Most, if not all, the areas conquered by SDF in North East Region after the collapse of
Syria have been retaken by HTS and SNA. In other words, HTS-SNA, and
US-Israel-SDF in an active conflict already. Israel and US war planes were
bombing the HTS in the region in
order to prevent their progress against SDF.
Russia’s
latest official statement of suspending the grain aid (probably the oil will
follow) to Syria may be considered as an indication of the frustration of
Russia. Oil and grain rich region of Syria has been under the US control and
the economic sanctions devastated the Syrian population in general. It
was Russia who prevented the situation in Syria (except in Idlib which was
supported by Turks) not to turn into a humanitarian crises with hunger and
starvation. The implications of the
suspension of grain export to Syria, the chaotic and dire situation in Syria
may easily turn in to a human catastrophe. The only salvation solution lie
in the North East region of Syria under the US control. US will not give up
the region voluntarily and will not make any move to prevent the incoming human
catastrophe in Syria. Prevention of catastrophe is not and has never been the policy and practice of US
but the creation of chaos and catastrophe has been a primary one. For this
reason North East Syria is a key for any "government" in order to
survive and remain in the power.
Northeast
Syria region and US- SDF controlling the
region will be the primary issue in Syria for a long time to come. Let’s add
the fact that SDF in the South Northeast
is a minority (if any existed before) who grabbed oil rich land of Arabs with the US for the US.
This region will remain to be the primary question and reason for the conflicts
because of its food and oil rich character and its occupied status.
Let’s
add and just keep in mind for the
future the brother of Basher Assad, Major General Maher Hafez Al-Assad who
left Syria with its army (said to be more than 3,000 officers and
soldiers) to Iraq. This is in addition
to over 4,000 reported in one border crossing and another 2,000 in another. There
isn’t any data on the crossing of individual soldiers platoons. This is a
formidable force should be considered in relation to the further developments
and changes in the balance of powers in Syria.
PALESTINE
Palestine
and Palestinian people who were cheering the fall of Assad are and will
be the biggest losers of all. It is most likely that, without the help of
Iran- Hizballah, not only Gaza but West Bank population will be exterminated,
depopulated, resettled, and annexed.
All
the attention and coverage about Palestine and Genocide of Israel diminished.
The tactic of distracting the attention from the genocide worked well.
Although
the fight goes on in Gaza and may be ignited in the West bank, the only hope
of Palestinians for a state lie in the destruction of Israel which is
unlikely in the short term unless Israel attacks Iran and Iran responses
destructively.
ISRAEL
Although
Israel is the big winner in short term but considering it is waging multiple
losing wars in the region and surrounded by “enemies”, religious factions, it
may well be the worse loser in the long term.
The first obvious question will be “how far they will penetrate into Syria?” Considering the weakness of ground forces of Israel, it is unlikely that they will be attempting to a ground invasion of Syria but limiting it to Golan heights and demilitarized zone. They may well utilize its “jihadist assets” in the small villages and towns to incorporate them.
Israel already started bombing Syrian airfields, ammunition, missile, and other
military depots. The distance between
the occupied Golan heights and Damascus is 60 KM, there was a "buffer,
demilitarized zone" in between
which has been taken control of it by Israel.
Second
question that
will have to follow is to be ; “will the attitude of Jihadist change towards
Israel?” In this subject, I refer back
to my comment in the Introduction and examples of Taliban and Hamas. How
feasible for Israel to live side by side with a Radical Islamist state in
the long run especially with the practice of bombing and occupying the Golan?
The other most important question is to be ; Will they facilitate the destruction of Gaza (and West bank) and integrate it to Israel? Or will they leave that to the aftermath of the soon to be waged war against Iran? Short answer is ; they will try however; it has been over a year since the genocide started by supposedly one of the “strongest military” in the world who still could not achieve its stated objectives against a small region and a small militia. The fact is that politically Israel is defeated, on the ground militarily, with claimed huge losses that never been disclosed, it is not a winner yet . Having said that, for Israel to achieve all its strategic goals is possible but highly unlikely especially in reference to the West Bank which has been passive so far and did not show any resistance.
Isolated from the world due to its genocide in Gaza, attacks in Syria and the
cruel hypocrisy that has been revealed
for the most in the world, the future of Israel is bleak. Currently, in
addition to some Christian and Buddhist countries, there is no one Musim
dominated country who did not ban the visa application to Israeli citizens and
those who visited Israel. That of course by itself is another blow to Israel
not only economically and politically, but a blow to its recruitment practices
for MOSSAD in those countries.
With the collapse of Syria, neither the dream of Israel for pipeline,
nor the gas pipe line from Qatar to Europe through Syria (US plan to counter
BRICS) can be achieved. Sometimes, actually more often especially of US and
Israel, the goals carry contradictions within. Now these dreams turned into fantasies since
in order for them to achieve and guarantee control of the pipelines require
long term “stability” in the given region in order to extract maximum profit.
The
main question that is being debated is if Israel will attack Iran. The latest
Israel attack to Iran has proven the fact that Israel has no capability of harming
Iran decisively. However, the last Iran’s’ attack to Israel has proven the fact
Iran is capable of destroying Israel. Israel is approximately 22,000 sq
km and the population is concentrated in few
cities, whereas Iran exceeds 1,6 million sq km with high mountains. It
is inconceivable that Israel can destroy Iran but it is conceivable
that Iran can destroy Israel. That is why, Israel, as always, has to depend on US in its long dreamed fight
against Iran. That by itself is another subject that requires a whole article
by itself. In short response, despite the hawkish Neo-Cons in the US it is highly unlikely that US will directly involve in a war between Israel and Iran; for
the simple reason is that such a war will inevitably mean a war against Russia,
China, North Korea.
Thus,
in so many aspects, Israel may by far turn out to be the within the category of
worse losers in the medium and long
term.
LEBANON
Lebanon
is another country within the goals of Israel to turn it into an entity
without a functioning government and with religious factions fighting against
each other; a chaotic place and power that will not present a threat to Israel.
That is the original theory called “Lebanonization” goes back to 1990s which is practiced in Balkans and stamped
the term “Balkanization.” The possibility of realizing that goal has always
been there during the unipolar world. However, with the transition to
multipolar world, that possibility is turned into a fantasy. Despite the fact
that Israel has many assets and followers in Lebanon, history has shown that
Israel is not and will not be capable of fragmenting Lebanon. It is reported that, in addition to Iraq thousands
of Hizballah fighters and Syrian army personnel with heavy weapons
crossed the border to Lebanon. In other words, Lebanon’s military power is
not diminished but strengthen.
Do
the commentaries about Hizballah being decimated has any validity or wishful
thinking? It is pure fantasy and wishful
thinking on the part of Western Media and on the part of some disappointed,
panicked commentators. It is true that Hizballah has been weakened but its
power to defend Lebanon is not diminished. They have been preparing for their
defense for 18 years since they
literally defeated Israil in 2006.
It
is true that with the uncertain situation in Syria, the conduit between
Iran and Lebanon for weapons has been interrupted. Looking at the history of
the world, one conduit closes and other opens up in the same or in another
place. Considering the dominance of crime lords, drug cartels in Syria
that always dominated the market and are powerful enough to wage a war against
the Jihadists -if they have not already recruited them- , they may well be the
“conduit” for the weapons from Iraq and Syria to Hizballah.
TURKIYE
The
big winner in the short term, and most likely for the medium term, Turkiye, is
not actually a part of US-West- Israel “coalition” but in it for the reasons
of the convenience of a loose-marriage. Each has its own agenda. Only the
collapse of Assad was the common goal . Now it is done, their interests shifted
from compromise to conflict. An internal turmoil and hot conflict among
the Jihadists does not serve the
interests of Turkiye but serves the interests of Israel. Expanding the control
of and/or stabilization and strengthening of PYD in the Northeast Syria serves
the interests of US but conflicts with the interests of Turkiye. Turkiye already controls the northwest Syria,
the largest cities; Idlib, Aleppo, Afrin and now Manbij. Looking at the
developments and the statements of the HTS leaders, it looks like Turkiye have
great influence on Damascus too. Before even a government is formed, Jihadists
attacked Manbij and Der Elzor and started massacres.
Considering
this fact, its "control" over HTS/Syrian new government although
highly unlikely at the moment, it may turn into a conflict if HTS opposes any
military action of Turkey in North East Syria. Turkey’s attitude to Northwest Syria is well known
and there is no possibility that they will compromise on that issue. That in
turn, will bring two NATO nations head to head. I doubt that Trump who
was bragging about the $40 million dollar a month income extracted and stolen from the Syrian
people at this region will easily let it go.
Unlike
the simplistic perspective, Turkiye, despite its being a NATO member,
has more political independence than most, if not all, European countries. They only act in line
with their own interests even to the degree of backstabbing the other in
the process. Let’s leave Damascus to one side for the sake of discussion,
northeast Syria in specific is considered to be a vital, existential
question by The elite of Turkiye. They will not budge from their
attitude regardless of the interests of the US. There is no way that the
declining empire US will take chances and further distance itself from Turkiye
and push it to the arms of BRICS -which is a vital question for the US. The
only alternative for the US will remain, like always, desert those you
supported, cut, and run like in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Afghanistan etc.…
In
this sense, Turkiye is the big winner not only in the short term but in the
medium term. For the long term, we will have to see the direction of
developments in the era which we live in can change direction so fast.
RUSSIA
It
is a fact that Syria had a strategic importance for Russia (and for that
matter, China) Strategic importance of Syria is not diminished for Russia but
its priorities forced them to cut their possible losses and leave the
irrecoverable situation to the “coalition” to deal with. In this sense they are both losers and
winners depending on the way the question is raised.
Will
they keep their military presence and bases in Syria?
Are
Russians really "fleeing",
or Turkiye and HTS trying very hard to keep them there- of course for their own
interests?
I
have seen numerous videos of Russian military convoys from different
parts of Syria moving most likely towards Air and Naval base on the coast of
Syria. Interestingly unimpeded by the HTS and other Jihadists. There is not
even one incident that the HTS , nor other jihadists members are trying
anything against them. If it happened, the Western Media would blown it to the
headlines with great exaggerations. That by itself is an indication of the
control of HTS by the Turkish government who wants to repair and continue
its "damaged relation" with Russia.
Will
Russia have diplomatic relations with the new “Syrian Government”? According to
the news, photographs, and videos, they have already allowed the new flags of
Syria raised in related buildings in
Russia.
Based
on the statements
of the officials from various parties, it is clear that HTS wants Russia to
remain with its military bases and/because Turkish government is trying very
hard to keep them there as a balancing force and as an insidious gesture to
have a "leverage" over Russia against the US. With the
credibility Erdogan has not so much different than that of US and Western
governments, It is highly unlikely that Russia will remain in those bases
and face another backstabbing by Erdogan. It may not be a quick withdrawal but
a likely withdrawal.
US
As
a “partner” of the “anti-Assad coalition” the US hypocrisy, as always reveals itself
blatantly. They tried to paint the leader of the Jihadists to a “moderate
rebel” through their mainstream media and outlets. They have not yet revoke the
"terrorist" categorization of the new "leader" of Syria nor
the $10 million reward for his
capture. On one side they call him a terrorist and put a reward on
his head, on the other side they claim he is a ‘moderate” and their “
man” who toppled Assad. It is
amazing that each “coalition” member is competing with each other to “own him
up” as its “man”.
The
most important issue for the US was the collapse of Assad regime. That
is not a question any more as far as the involvement of US is concerned.
Since
their justification for having military presence in NE Syria is
to fight (their own creature) ISIS, the organization one of the leader of which
was Golani, their “man”, and If they do revoke the terrorist category on the
organization and on him, there will
be no credible justification to have military presence in North East Syria.
That is one reason they are in quagmire.
Another
significant issue is the economic sanctions of US on Assad’s Syria. Since
there is no more Assad’s Syria to speak about, will they remove the economic
sanctions imposed on Syria?
I
believe we will have to wait till Trump takes the power in US in order to see
their approach and make further assessments in regard to US.
If
I am not mistaken, on the 3rd or 4th day of the Jihadi
offensive in Syria, US and its partners in Northeast made a southward move to
grab more lands in the oil rich region. However, it did not last long and lost
most of them back to HTS-SNA. That, we do not read or see in the Mainstream
Media.
IRAN
The
loss of Syria has been a big blow to Iran and presents further dangers. As far
as supporting Hizballah, they probably will be able to find new conduits to
solve that problem. However, (I am not a military expert) the loss of Syria may
shorten the flight distance from Israel . How will that impact -if any- the
assault on Iran, I have no idea.
This
development, in my view contrary to some commentators, will force to decide and speed up their process
of acquiring nuclear weapon - (if they haven't already decided and in the
process)
IRAQ
How
will Iraq’s relationship be with a Wahabi led Syria is the first question comes
to mind. Jihadists first have to form a functioning government with all
institutions including the military one in order to speak of a “relationship”.
We will have to wait and see for that to happen first.
Every
commentator is being asked if and will ever
the Syrian jihadist-government attack
Iraq. I believe people are highly
exaggerating the military power of Syrian Jihadists. They do not have a
military power, especially now after Israel bombed all military facilities,
ammunition and weapon depots, airports, etc.,.
As
I have noted above, thousands of Syrian military personnel crossed the border
to Iraq with all its military equipment and arms. That by itself is a
strengthening factor for Iraqis. Jihadists have to resolve their own
contradictions within and build a functioning government before taking any
action against anyone.
OTHER
IMPLICATIONS
I
really wonder what the future of Jordan will be. Will Jordan be a country looks like which have 80% of population made
up of Palestinians? How long the US puppet Kingdom will last is another
question to respond to which depends on the further developments in the region.
How
worried is Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and other countries especially those who are
Wahabi? They are very worried for the success of HTS may encourage the domestic
Jihadists and ignite, reignite the conflicts.
Is
China a loser in this development? It seems China's loss is mostly related
and limited to Russia's loss. As far as China is concerned, as long as
problem does not reach to Iran, there is no affect of Syria on China. Belt
and Road project does not go through Syria .
CONCLUSION
The
quick collapse of Syrian Government and
military has not happened due to one reason alone but due to a cumulative
dialectically connected reasons. Each
party within the “coalition” planning, plotting and cheering this collapse had its own reasons. As mentioned in the article, reasons
of each involved “coalition” had both colliding and coinciding, conforming character.
The collapse of Assad regime was a conforming result as far as their
primary goal is concerned. However, the medium and long term consequence show
sharp contradiction and collisions in antagonistic scale. Because the existing so called “coalition” is made up of different parties with different aims, their interests diverge from the point of the success
of primary goal to a different road on
which each pursue its own goal
contradiction the other.
It
is highly possible that the aim of the
US-West, although targeted the ousting of Assad, intended extending Russia by
keeping them in Syria and having them get stuck in a long war. That
has been the policy and practice
of "extending Russia", a
policy which continues in various countries like Georgia, Armenia, Moldova,
and in other countries in different forms in addition to Ukraine. Unexpected
quick collapse of Assad regime and withdrawal of Russia from the scene, turned
the table around and spontaneously turned the situation into a condition of "extending
US-West-Israel". The future looks bleak for winners of the development in the short term.
They may face catastrophic losses in the medium and long term due to the
contradictions in their interests especially and in specific with Turkiye, and if
in case they attack Iran, due to their contradicting
interests with those of Russia-China.
Erdogan A
December 17, 2024
Bangkok
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