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The fate of aggressive, bellicose imperialism in a multipolar world – Malacca issue

As the multipolar world order gains traction, the aggressive and bellicose imperialist USA is losing its credibility, reliability and isolating itself from the rest of the world including the countries under its sphere of influence. In some cases, it is not only isolating itself but gradually turning them in to hostile countries, especially the people of those countries. 

The hopes that Trump will be different than the Russophobia faction of Neo-Cons and will have different foreign policy is evaporating in a fast speed. As I have noted in numerous articles, the foreign policies of Trump administration is not and cannot be any different than  the prior administrations. He is elected as a “scapegoat” for all the sins of declining US empire. He assigned himself as the “damage-image control” president starting with the task of succeeding a “face-saving exit” from the proxy war in Ukraine and focusing on China. Trumps rhetoric on the war in Ukraine and “rapprochement, “peace talks” has nothing to do with the “policy” change but as a consequence of  admitting the fact that they are losing the proxy war in Ukraine and they cannot win it.

His daily change of statements on any given international issue is not helping his damage-image control goals in general and his statement on the Straight of Malacca as our subject in reference to “destroying Iran’s trade with China”.

According to various news; “Trump administration is considering leveraging a 2003 agreement designed to stop the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction to slow the delivery of Iranian oil and increase pressure on the supply chain and counterparties. According to the report, tankers would be stopped for inspections in major sea lanes and critical points such as the Malacca Strait.” The justification for the inspection is that according to  the Proliferation Security Initiative which aims to combat the  proliferation of weapons of mass destruction – in this case it is oil as WMD!. For this purpose, Trump administration plans to call on major allies to deploy navies in the Strait of Malacca to block the waterway, and completely  cut off Iran's path to transport oil to China.  Everyone with a critical mind and familiar with the recent history of the US can easily see that this is an excuse.

It is reported that Iran have made around $54 billion in each of the last two years from oil exports despite increased Western sanctions. That translates to China's annual energy loss  of 54 billion US dollars if the route through Malacca straight is cut off. Iran’s export of crude oil to China in 2023 accounted to be 83% of its total exports. By 2024,  most of Iran's oil exports were still with China, accounting for 90% of  the total.

Trump imposed two new rounds of sanctions on Iran, targeting shipping companies, so-called "shadow  fleets". US-led, actually unilaterally declared "Proliferation Security Initiative" authorize US allies to intercept and inspect ships suspected of transporting Iranian oil in  key waterways such as the Strait of Malacca.

Still living in a fantasy world disconnected from the new concrete  realities of the world, Trump and his administration is targeting to shoot two birds with one stone. Because, as the world's largest importer of crude oil, China is also very dependent on the Strait  of Malacca. Most of China’s import exports rely on maritime  transportation, and most of these transportations need to pass through the Strait of Malacca thus, this plan actually means blocking China's "economic lifeline".

Now I do understand the underlying reason for unusual statement of China;

"Whether it's a tariff war or a trade war, whether it's a cold war or a hot war, they should not be fought and cannot be won."

Although on paper, from a military perspective, it is not difficult to block the 800  kilometers long and 65 kilometers average wide Strait of  Malacca, it is not feasible for any country to attempt such a risky and costly adventure. It is between Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia. Under normal conditions, and when it was unilateral world, US Navy could do it but with a huge cost to itself and devastating costs to the surrounding countries and the rest of trading countries.

Strait of  Malacca does not only carries China's trade. it is also one of the busiest straits in  the world. It's the shortest sea route between the Arabian Gulf, a major oil-producing region, and Asian markets like China, Japan, and South Korea . Roughly one third of the world’s crude oil and more than 80% of Japan’s oil imports pass through the Straits of Malacca.  Data shows that the cargo volume of the Strait of Malacca is three times that  of the Suez Canal and five times that of the  Panama Canal. The Strait of Malacca, a narrow passage between Indonesia and Malaysia, is a vital "throat" of global trade, connecting the Indian and Pacific Oceans and serving as a key route for oil and goods between the Arabian Gulf and Asia. According to the reports, over 94,000 ships pass through each year.

That means, it will not only be Iran and China who will lose, but entire world economy. A potential disruption in the Strait of Malacca would not only impact Asia but would ripple across global supply chains, reflecting the domino effect characteristic of interconnected trade networks and would cause global  oil prices to double or triple in one day and could  trigger the worst international trade recession.

It seems that with their momentary sobering from its fantasy, Trump administration is not planning to get US navy involved for the task, but suggesting to authorize allies to undertake the  task of interception and inspection. The question is which “allies”. US does not have any “allies’ in the region. Most every country in the South East Asia with the exception of Philippines following the path of neutrality in general, and will definitely be against such action because they are well aware that any such intervention  will not only cost them billions of dollars, because the economic lifeline of these  countries depends on the waterway  passing, and it will trigger a chain reaction in the region specific. Politicizing the Strait of Malacca will bring about hostility against them in the region.   Indonesia and Malaysia is not an ally of the US to get involve. The only small country on which the US has political influence, Singapore, is highly dependent  on trade and investment with China in terms of  economy. Aside from the fact that it is not a military task that Singapore can take upon itself, if the traffic in Strait of Malacca is interrupted  Singapore's economy  will be the first one to be greatly impacted with a loss of %50 or more income from the straits. Thus, Singapore may be  the first country to oppose such an adventure.

Aggressive and bellicose policies of US were not countered by these countries during the unipolar world order, however they are increasingly taking neutral stand and speaking and taking stand against the US policies as a result of the new multi polar world order. They have been quietly dissatisfied with the US aggressive policies for long time. With this imposition of US against the interests of the countries of the region, it will increase their dissatisfaction and force them to take action, in this case non-action.

US, with its stretched thin and weakened military cannot take this adventure by itself. China, with its long term pro-active thinking and policies, even if the United States blocks the  Strait of Malacca at all costs, China does not  have to worry too much. Because, decades ago China began to plan  many alternative solutions through  the "Belt and Road" initiative. China has developed the  Gwadar Port in Pakistan, which is in operation since 2016, through the "China-Pakistan Economic Corridor "for the direct  crude oil transport from Gwadar Port  to Xinjiang through pipelines. China has also built a pipeline to  transport oil and gas from Myanmar to Yunnan which  has been in operation since 2013  and has started to transport oil since 2017.  The third alternative route, which  was put  into operation in 2006, is the Central  Asian oil and gas pipeline from the Caspian Sea  through Kazakhstan to Xinjiang. China has also  cooperated with Russia to develop an  Arctic route from Europe to East Asia. Most important Chinese plan  which fears Singapore is, to dig a canal in the Isthmus of Clark in Thailand to connect  the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea which can partially  replace the role of the Strait of Malacca.

The usual threat policy of the Neo-Cons of US to block the Strait of Malacca has no serious impact on China but like the previous 3 years long threats especially against Russia, is backfiring and isolating itself from more and more countries including the ones those under its sphere of influence.

With their aggressive and bellicose policies based on fantasies, they woke pro-western Russia up   from their delusions, turned a single-economy country into a self sufficient country with the development of so many industries, and in to the strongest military power in the world. Unlike Russia, China is economically a highly developed producer country with a military force focused on defense even superseding Russia with its latest technological developments in its military industry.  That’s why, the other side of the same “Neo-Con coin”, with the same foreign policy based on the illusion that a consumer country like the US with its financial institutions and exposed military myth is still the only hegemonic power, can still impose its will to others will always backfire and facilitate its decline.  

The old policies and practices of “we win-you lose” will probably work only for the countries in its backyard. China, Russia and ASEAN countries with their joint Asian Seaways Security Initiative, co-signed by 67 countries, explicitly opposes "unilateral maritime  actions" will effectively fight back against the aggressive, bellicose policy and practices of the United States. Developing countries of the world in general and South East Asia specific were  already aware of the justifications and deceptions of the US turning an issue to military warfare or economic warfare, now in the multipolar world order, gradually having the courage to resist not to be a proxy in US’s economic and /or military warfare.

The policies of Trump administration is not and cannot be any different than  the prior administrations. He will continue to the same aggressive and bellicose foreign policies with different rhetoric, different tactics. Unlike the common view that "Trump is destroying the deep state", they are trying to reshape it, concentrate and centralize the power in their hands. If they continue the same policies, they will be isolated from the rest of the world with few exceptions. His primary goal of these "negotiations" for Ukraine will focus on determining "how to peel Russia off China", and what kind of "concessions" should be given to Russia that can bring about such results. Another unending fantasy disconnected from the objective concrete realities that will end with waking up with nightmare.

Erdogan A

March 15,2025

Thailand


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