The fate of aggressive, bellicose imperialism in a multipolar world – Malacca issue
The hopes that Trump will be
different than the Russophobia faction of Neo-Cons and will have different
foreign policy is evaporating in a fast speed. As I have noted in numerous
articles, the foreign policies of Trump administration is not and cannot be any
different than the prior
administrations. He is elected as a “scapegoat” for all the sins of declining US
empire. He assigned himself as the “damage-image control” president starting
with the task of succeeding a “face-saving exit” from the proxy war in Ukraine
and focusing on China. Trumps rhetoric on the war in Ukraine and “rapprochement,
“peace talks” has nothing to do with the “policy” change but as a consequence
of admitting the fact that they are
losing the proxy war in Ukraine and they cannot win it.
His daily change of statements on any given international issue is not helping his damage-image control goals in general and his statement on the Straight of Malacca as our subject in reference to “destroying Iran’s trade with China”.
According to various news; “Trump
administration is considering leveraging a 2003 agreement designed to stop the
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction to slow the delivery of Iranian
oil and increase pressure on the supply chain and counterparties. According to
the report, tankers would be stopped for inspections in major sea lanes and
critical points such as the Malacca Strait.” The justification for the
inspection is that according to the
Proliferation Security Initiative which aims to combat the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction –
in this case it is oil as WMD!. For this purpose, Trump administration plans to
call on major allies to deploy navies in the Strait of Malacca to block the waterway,
and completely cut off Iran's path to
transport oil to China. Everyone with a
critical mind and familiar with the recent history of the US can easily see
that this is an excuse.
It is reported that Iran have
made around $54 billion in each of the last two years from oil exports despite increased
Western sanctions. That translates to China's annual energy loss of 54 billion US dollars if the route through Malacca straight is cut off. Iran’s export of
crude oil to China in 2023 accounted to be 83% of its total exports. By
2024, most of Iran's oil exports were
still with China, accounting for 90% of
the total.
Trump imposed two new rounds of sanctions on Iran, targeting shipping companies, so-called "shadow fleets". US-led, actually unilaterally declared "Proliferation Security Initiative" authorize US allies to intercept and inspect ships suspected of transporting Iranian oil in key waterways such as the Strait of Malacca.
Still living in a fantasy world
disconnected from the new concrete realities of the world, Trump and his administration
is targeting to shoot two birds with one stone. Because, as the world's largest
importer of crude oil, China is also very dependent on the Strait of Malacca. Most of China’s import exports rely
on maritime transportation, and most of
these transportations need to pass through the Strait of Malacca thus, this plan
actually means blocking China's "economic lifeline".
Now I do understand the underlying
reason for unusual statement of China;
"Whether
it's a tariff war or a trade war, whether it's a cold war or a hot war, they
should not be fought and cannot be won."
Although on paper, from a
military perspective, it is not difficult to block the 800 kilometers long and 65 kilometers average
wide Strait of Malacca, it is not
feasible for any country to attempt such a risky and costly adventure. It is
between Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia. Under normal conditions, and when
it was unilateral world, US Navy could do it but with a huge cost to itself and
devastating costs to the surrounding countries and the rest of trading
countries.
Strait of Malacca does not only carries China's trade. it
is also one of the busiest straits in
the world. It's the shortest sea route between the Arabian Gulf, a major
oil-producing region, and Asian markets like China, Japan, and South Korea . Roughly
one third of the world’s crude oil and more than 80% of Japan’s oil imports
pass through the Straits of Malacca. Data
shows that the cargo volume of the Strait of Malacca is three times that of the Suez Canal and five times that of
the Panama Canal. The Strait of Malacca,
a narrow passage between Indonesia and Malaysia, is a vital "throat"
of global trade, connecting the Indian and Pacific Oceans and serving as a key
route for oil and goods between the Arabian Gulf and Asia. According to the reports,
over 94,000 ships pass through each year.
That means, it will not only be
Iran and China who will lose, but entire world economy. A potential disruption
in the Strait of Malacca would not only impact Asia but would ripple across
global supply chains, reflecting the domino effect characteristic of
interconnected trade networks and would cause global oil prices to double or triple in one day and
could trigger the worst international
trade recession.
It seems that with their momentary
sobering from its fantasy, Trump administration is not planning to get US navy
involved for the task, but suggesting to authorize allies to undertake the task of interception and inspection. The
question is which “allies”. US does not have any “allies’ in the region. Most
every country in the South East Asia with the exception of Philippines following
the path of neutrality in general, and will definitely be against such action
because they are well aware that any such intervention will not only cost them billions of dollars, because the economic lifeline of these countries
depends on the waterway passing, and it will
trigger a chain reaction in the region specific. Politicizing the Strait of
Malacca will bring about hostility against them in the region. Indonesia and Malaysia is not an ally of the
US to get involve. The only small country on which the US has political
influence, Singapore, is highly dependent
on trade and investment with China in terms of economy. Aside from the fact that it is not a
military task that Singapore can take upon itself, if the traffic in Strait of
Malacca is interrupted Singapore's
economy will be the first one to be greatly
impacted with a loss of %50 or more income from the straits. Thus, Singapore
may be the first country to oppose such
an adventure.
Aggressive and bellicose policies
of US were not countered by these countries during the unipolar world order,
however they are increasingly taking neutral stand and speaking and taking
stand against the US policies as a result of the new multi polar world order. They
have been quietly dissatisfied with the US aggressive policies for long time. With
this imposition of US against the interests of the countries of the region, it
will increase their dissatisfaction and force them to take action, in this case
non-action.
US, with its stretched thin and
weakened military cannot take this adventure by itself. China, with its long
term pro-active thinking and policies, even if the United States blocks
the Strait of Malacca at all costs,
China does not have to worry too much. Because,
decades ago China began to plan many
alternative solutions through the
"Belt and Road" initiative. China has developed the Gwadar Port in Pakistan, which is in
operation since 2016, through the "China-Pakistan Economic Corridor "for
the direct crude oil transport from
Gwadar Port to Xinjiang through
pipelines. China has also built a pipeline to
transport oil and gas from Myanmar to Yunnan which has been in operation since 2013 and has started to transport oil since
2017. The third alternative route, which
was put
into operation in 2006, is the Central
Asian oil and gas pipeline from the Caspian Sea through Kazakhstan to Xinjiang. China has
also cooperated with Russia to develop
an Arctic route from Europe to East Asia.
Most important Chinese plan which fears
Singapore is, to dig a canal in the Isthmus of Clark in Thailand to
connect the Gulf of Thailand and the
Andaman Sea which can partially replace
the role of the Strait of Malacca.
The usual threat policy of the Neo-Cons
of US to block the Strait of Malacca has no serious impact on China but like
the previous 3 years long threats especially against Russia, is backfiring and
isolating itself from more and more countries including the ones those under
its sphere of influence.
With their aggressive and bellicose policies based on fantasies, they woke pro-western Russia up from their delusions, turned a single-economy country into a self sufficient country with the development of so many industries, and in to the strongest military power in the world. Unlike Russia, China is economically a highly developed producer country with a military force focused on defense even superseding Russia with its latest technological developments in its military industry. That’s why, the other side of the same “Neo-Con coin”, with the same foreign policy based on the illusion that a consumer country like the US with its financial institutions and exposed military myth is still the only hegemonic power, can still impose its will to others will always backfire and facilitate its decline.
The old policies and practices of
“we win-you lose” will probably work only for the countries in its backyard. China,
Russia and ASEAN countries with their joint Asian Seaways Security Initiative,
co-signed by 67 countries, explicitly opposes "unilateral maritime actions" will effectively fight back
against the aggressive, bellicose policy and practices of the United States. Developing
countries of the world in general and South East Asia specific were already aware of the justifications and
deceptions of the US turning an issue to military warfare or economic warfare,
now in the multipolar world order, gradually having the courage to resist not
to be a proxy in US’s economic and /or military warfare.
The policies of Trump
administration is not and cannot be any different than the prior administrations. He will continue
to the same aggressive and bellicose foreign policies with different rhetoric,
different tactics. Unlike the common view that "Trump is destroying the
deep state", they are trying to reshape it, concentrate and centralize the
power in their hands. If they continue the same policies, they will be isolated
from the rest of the world with few exceptions. His primary goal of these
"negotiations" for Ukraine will focus on determining "how to
peel Russia off China", and what kind of "concessions" should be
given to Russia that can bring about such results. Another unending fantasy disconnected
from the objective concrete realities that will end with waking up with nightmare.
Erdogan A
March 15,2025
Thailand
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