US-Israel war against Iran; another failure of Neo-Cons due to their illusions
We had forecasted the emergence of multipolar world order clearly especially in our initial Ukraine war assessments. That assessment was based on the specific theories of Lenin in which he outlined in his critique of Kautsky (on ultra-imperialism-unipolar world order) and the current concrete economic developments in the world arena. Looking at the balance of powers at the current conjunction, Lenin’s theory of “unequal economic development” confirmed itself to be correct one more time.
For those underlying reason we have claimed that the US-West dominant ideological group is living in a fantasy land divorced from the concrete realities of the world, especially their overlooking the fact of this transformation in general and delusional overestimating their military and economic power in particular. As Gramsci had stated; knowing your enemy’s power makes %50, knowing your own power makes the other % 50 of your chances of a victory in a conflict-war, Neo-Cons were delusional in both category. That in return meant that they inevitably would lose most of their conflicts. This has manifested and proven itself to be true for the war that is waged by US and EU through their proxy in Ukraine against Russia. This mistake and miscalculations of Neo-Cons actually facilitated, reinforced, and speeded up the transformation of the world from unipolar to multi-polar. It was because through economic sanctions they forced and created conditions for a monopoly-capitalist country to develop its economy, and through war, they forced and caused Russia to be the most experienced and powerful country in the world. In other words, their delusional calculations made based on the balance of powers during the unipolar world order have strengthened their enemies economically, militarily, and politically. They actually created a country now fits in the scientific definition of “imperialist” against their own bellicose, aggressive imperialist country. We will have to wait and see when Russia will transform itself in to a bellicose imperialist category.
Second venture of the US-West bellicose action manifested itself through the US-Israel war against Iran. This war again was the application of strategy and tactics based on the assessments and calculations of the balance of powers during the 1990s. Then the “axis of evil” was “Iraq-Iran-North Korea”. Through demonizing those countries, heavy propaganda, and manipulation of minds during this period created a false realities about these countries and thus they were able to manufacture consent for wars against the “axis”.
The problem arouse is that they lied too much with their narratives during the unipolar world order, they started believing in their own lies, and thus mistakenly have applied their strategies to the conditions and balance of powers of multi-polar world order.
Contrary to the point of view of most liberals and some of our comrades, imperialists have been successful in Iraq and other regions under the conditions of unipolar world order. The “victory” should not be defined based on the conditions of colonial or neo-colonial era but based on the current era in which the achievement of strategic goals defines the victory. In fact the imperialists have been successful in achieving most of all their strategic goals in Africa, West Asia but lost all in Asia and East Asia; Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Afghanistan. They prevented Libya from de-dollarizing the oil trade, cut ties with the “ international financial organizations” (actually most of all what the new BRICS is trying to do) and destroyed Libya which now remains to be an unstable country where even the “slavery” has become a norm. They plundered the gold and oil of Iraq, turned it in to a neo-colony, and lastly through the use of “overt-covert” operations they have been plundering Syria’s oil, and now turned it in to an unstable country.
In this sense and as far as the achievement of strategic goals, imperialists were victorious of these wars.
The policy of “aggressive imperialist” in Stalin’s definition all through the history especially the last and current century followed a strategy and tactics of covert operations, direct (overt) attacks and depending on the outcomes of each, followed the interchanging line of “covert and overt “ operations.
The war against Iran has followed the same line and will continue to follow till either they achieve a government change in Iran or Iran becomes an unattackable and/or unbeatable for various reasons.
Reading the statements of US officials and the articles and especially reports of the Neo-Con think-tank (published in 2009 with the title “Which way to Persia”) the preparation for war against Iran was going on for over 20 years. A simple analysis of the events actually could be evidence of US following the report stated above to the letter .
Covert to overt
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Then, they have started the missile attacks with the hope that they can achieve a regime change uprisings in a short period of time. Simultaneously they aimed at "decapitation' of the military and scientific leaders and thus they have activated their local agents and assets. They were successful in their initial goal of decapitation. The visible “deficiency” within the ‘security’ apparatus of Iran has been greatly publicized. However, the success in short term brought about the possibility of long term defeat world wide for their intelligence services and local assets. The fact that Israel had agents and assets in a tightly controlled country like Iran has woken up so many countries on this problem. The number of countries banning the Israelis and those who visited Israel, "undeclared" scrutiny of Jewish tourists to so many other countries in general already has reached to one third of world's countries and will continue to increase. That scrutiny will strike a huge blow to the Israeli intelligence and a fear to their local assets in the long run.
Retaliation of Iran has been devastating to Israel both psychologically and physically. For the first time in its history, Israel was "tasting its own medicine"; the buildings were collapsing, bombs were dropping, people were dying, they were spending their nights in "bunkers", social and economic activities literally stopped...With their supremacist state of mind, they never thought that something like that could ever happen to them "because they had the mythical "iron dome" and their military was the "strongest" in the world. This illusion is shattered and has brought about an inevitable permanent change in their false sense of superiority. That followed by hundreds of thousands of Israelis escaping from Israel. Despite the ban on leaving Israel, more and more citizens seeking and finding ways to leave Israel illegally. With the shattering of delusion that what they have done to Gaza and other neighboring countries will never happen to them, it seems that the "migration" out of Israel to be permanent and inward "migration" will be a fantasy for a long time. That fact by itself will play a decisive role for the future of Israel; either a structural change in the system, or destruction in the long run by neighboring countries and organizations Israel has oppressed and suppressed, used, and abused for long time. Of course the political and economic isolation of Israel world wide, the hatred towards its racist structure and genocide it has committed will play a decisive role in facilitating that outcome.
The devastating retaliation of Iran and above mentioned apparent and foreseeable facts has been recognised and acknowledged by the Zionists, and by the US permanent bureaucracy who forced the Trump administration to stop its hawkish rhetoric, and take action to save both Israel and US in different context.
Despite all the “Hollywood" type scenarios broadcasted and printed on Western Media and the self-pompous statements of US president and his associates, the preparation of US for an attack to Iran was very obvious to any critical minded people, especially to Russia and China. In other words, US was literally 'informing" its attack beforehand for Iran to take necessary precautions.
From overt to covert
Again, despite all the "victorious", "self-pampering" statements the bomb attack of US, as far as the destruction of nuclear assets and destruction of facilities are concerned was not successful. This was not coincidental. US was giving Iran a message; a message to end this conflict in a way that both can claim victory.
This action of US was reciprocated by Iran by bombing the largest US base and Middle East command center of US after informing Qatar of the action. Iran did not have to and would not inform US directly, but through Qatar. This mutual attacks between Iran and US settled the US Iran overt conflict. It was for the economic and political benefit of both countries.
US has acknowledged the fact that Israel could carry out neither its own nor US's strategic goals. Contrary, Israel was being defeated and dragging the US with it. Israel needed to be saved from destruction and US Iran overt war had to be shifted to its covert form. The developments had proved that the expectation of uprising by Azeris, Kurds, Baluch, and other jihadist proxies was utopic, needed more covert operations to bring it to a mature level. Until then the “regime change” in Iran was admitted to be a fantasy. As far as the US is concerned, this is the end of overt action and the start of covert actions to achieve its strategic goals.
Considering the fact that Iran refused the Russian military help (which was stated by Putin too) it may be considered as an indication that there are powerful factions in Iran who are not comfortable with Russia and desires to limit their relations with them. They are great candidates for the US covert operations to target.
Although neither US nor Israel have achieved their strategic goal in its general form, they were successful one of its fundamental goal; distraction of attention from the ongoing genocide in Gaza. The continuing genocide in Gaza almost forgotten or at least the attention to what is going on in Gaza has been distracted from the attention of people, the news and commentaries about genocide disappeared from the Mainstream media pages and broadcasts. Especially during these conflicts, the genocide in Gaza went on with higher intensity and brutally to a degree that the food and water supply to Palestinian people have been used as a trap to draw civilians and shoot them in mass.
It may even be argued that the fundamental aim was this “distraction”, together with the hope that a protracted missile match with Iran an internal chaos and conflicts in Iran would become the main issue in the headlines while Gaza genocide disappearing from the news. Because the isolation of Israel and US from the large sections of the world population had reached its peak due to the genocide that was being carried out in Gaza. They had to come up with a tactical solution for damage-repair and distract the attention from the genocide going on in Gaza and speed up and finalize the genocide while all the attention of world is focused on something else. What else could have been better distraction than a country who has a reactionary government and disliked by almost everyone. A country, in most cases due to west's decades long disinformation, cheap propaganda, falsifications, and false narratives, a negative opinion had already been manufactured. Their narrative on Iran, especially on "women issue" was so strongly accepted to be true by the world population, people had closed their eyes and ears to the facts and positive developments in Iran. So, Iran for US and Israel was the best choice to repair their damaged reputation, to look "progressive", and distract the attention from Gaza. This purpose was also in line with the US's purpose of regime change in Iran and implant its own government to turn Iran in to a base of leverage against US and China. This way US would be able to control the oil of Iran, pressure China economically, build military basis in Iran through which US can extend its powers and influence on Caucasus- Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and beyond- and thus could have created new "Ukraine " fronts in this region.
Both Israel and the US failed miserably in their overt operations to Iran, their covert operations in Iran was successful to a degree but not decisive. It has been a historical blow to the Israelis' media created mythical image. Israeli " iron dome myth" has been shattered. Myth of Israeli army to be the strongest army has been exposed. The mythical military of Israel has been fighting against an organization in Palestine who has no air-defense, no heavy military equipment for close to two years without a victory. Bombing and shooting the civilians, genocide in Gaza exposed another gross lie that Israeli army is the "most humane army in the world", but exposed and confirmed their inhumanity and cowardly character. The world perspective of Israel in the eyes of peoples in almost every aspect has been reversed to the outmost negative character. This operation so far has been a defeat in all aspects for the Israel, and indirectly for the US. It may be an end of the direct "short" overt conflict between US and Iran, but for various reasons it is a pause between Israel and Iran. The emerging conflict and developments within Israel will determine the final outcome of this pause. It was a question of " continue or retreat" for US, it made its decision from overt to covert, now same is a question for Israel which may end up being an existential question for them. The use of nuclear weapons are triggered by the conditions of existential question especially for small powers.
Conclusion
For the large part they have succeeded in their first fundamental aim, but not as long as they have had hoped due to their underestimating Iran’s military power and resilience of Iranian people. Both Israel and US have come out as defeated from this conflict.
US’s “face saving” and “claiming victory out of defeat” tactics manifested itself through bombing Iran without any serious damage. Because any direct involvement of US in large scale and in long term would be suicidal not only militarily but economically and politically. US-Israel and the West are very well aware of the Russia, China, North Korea (and now Pakistan) factor in this conflict. As Ukraine has been a defeat for them in every aspect, such a long term direct involvement, could have probably brought about same results for them.
These developments has been another confirmation that US is unmatched in "soft power" strategy and tactics, but its "hard power" is diminished substantially. We should admit the fact that US and especially Israel is unmatched in strategy and tactics in the use of “soft power”; in the field of propaganda , manipulation of people's point of views on any given issue, distraction of their attentions, and for manufacturing consent for their illegal, unjust, and criminal actions.
Transforming the overt actions to covert actions for the purpose of “regime change” in Iran may have been successful during the unipolar world order. However, it is questionable during the multi polar world order , especially if the selected country for regime change is a neighbor to and/or strategically important for the other super powers. China has chosen the path of "non interference", “appeasement” and “conciliation” thus its stand and practice will be passive till they are left no other option and forced to take action. However, Russia has dropped its appeasement policy during the second phase of Ukraine war. If US use its soft power for a government change in Iran or in any other Russia's neighboring country, Russia will not remain silent but act to prevent any government changes in its neighboring countries.
People should start thinking, forming a point of view and analysis not based on the views of 1990s- from the era of unipolar world order but start considering the fact that the world is going through the formation and strengthening of a multipolar world order.
In that sense, as far as the "regime change" is concerned, it is most likely that a "regime change" will not be in Iran, but in order to survive, it will be a "regime change" in Israel. Israel has two path in its front; destruction or reconstruction.
As far as the US is concerned, as I have noted in one of my article; "the claim ” Israel controls US foreign policy” consciously or unconsciously, directly, or indirectly is a part of a long “damage control” process of US. US is increasingly being isolated from the world due to unilateral, unjustified wars, economic sanctions, and its support to genocidal war in Palestine. The repeated and wide spread argument that “the US government is controlled by Israeli Lobby” is gaining traction among the US population and there is a growing opposition to Israel. That argument eventually may be used to shift the sins of entire US warmongering policy and unjustified wars to Israel. The more that argument gains traction world wide, the easier to convince the world that it was not the US, but Israel (controlling the US governments) who was behind all those wars and murders of millions of people world wide and destruction of countries. "
MLDG brainstorming discussions summarized by
Erdogan A
June 26, 2025
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