The fallacy of “Cambodia being a US proxy”.
As I have noted on my first “restrained” article, the skirmish between Thailand and Cambodia has nothing to do with the border dispute. The conflict is a cover up for the internal political conflicts, manifestation of which is deflected as “border dispute”.
There are “assessments” that tie the skirmish to either one
or the other of being a proxy of US. That would be correct only if it is considered
within those countries. There is no factuality if it is considered between the
countries.
In our assessment of Trump’s “dissolution of USAID”, we have
said that “it is not a dissolution but centralization and consolidation of
USAID-NED and its branches within the control of the administration,
specifically under the control of State Department. They streamlined the
organizations, eliminated the “waste” such as the financial support to identity
politics (LGBT movements
is one at the top). Through this reorganization, they actually increased the
financing to the previous most decisive and affective NED-NGOs. The number of local
proxy media outlets and trolls have been increased. One of the fundamental reason for this
pro-active maneuver was the “transparency” laws enacted in many countries and
punishments started against the foreign financed NGO’s. That was a heavy blow
to the “soft power” of the US in this region. The main task of carrying out the
duties of NGOs has partially been taken up by the "billionaire clubs", by the
large corporations and political elites in their pockets - with the extensive support
of proxy media and NGOs.
The skirmish between Thailand and Cambodia is actually a manifestation of the conflict between the existing power and opposing USAID-NED supported powers within those countries.
Lets summarize a brief history and outline the powers in each
country in order to understand the situation better.
Cambodia
Is Cambodia a US proxy?Cambodia historically shifted
between West (US) and east (China-Vietnam) numerous times since it gained independence from France in 1953. First
it was President Sihanouk phase who favored
good relations with China as its main
backer. Then came the Khmer Republic under Lon Nol in 1970 who came to power
through a coup backed by the US. In 1975, Democratic Kampuchea regime rose to
power with backing from pro-Soviet
Vietnam. When Vietnam withdrew from Cambodia in 1989, Cambodia leaned again towards the US- West. Ten years later, in 1998,
under the leadership of Hun Sen Cambodia
is once again started developing good relations with China. 2018 elections has given President Hun
Sen in total control of the government and the shift in favour towards China
increased, however with a foreign policy of “neutrality “. China’s investment in
Cambodia, in infrastructure, agriculture
and energy, played a crucial role in its economic development and poverty
reduction. The “color revolution” attempts financed and supported by USAID-NED
between 2012-2018 were prevented with the economic and political support of
China. Infamous “video case” of opposition
leader Kem Sokhain which he clearly (mind bogglingly stupidly and arrogantly) states
his conspiring against the administration with U.S. support is a striking reflection of this era and who was behind them.
In his video he state; “ "I do not do anything at my own will. I have
experts, university professors in Washington DC, Montreal, Canada hired by the
Americans in order to advise me on the strategy to change the leaders. And if I
follow such a tactic and strategy and if I could not win, I do not know what
else to do."
Sam Rainsy , as a puppet to US-West leading the pro-US opposition in Cambodia
Sam Rainsy who lives in France as the ”opposition
leader” was one of the founders of the
Cambodia National Rescue Party, the country's pro-US main opposition movement. The same party whose
leader Kem Sokhain was arrested for its “video broadcast”. Sam Rainy , with his opposition party called
for civil war and recently was trying very hard to drive wedge between the
families, spreading gossips on entire Western and local (regional) proxy media.
In Cambodia, the Hun family shares its dominant position in economy and politics with few other families. They control mining, telecom, media, and real estate sectors in Cambodia. The dominant ruling elite is (considering the plots of color revolutions against them) obviously pro-China but to a degree that it is a strategic one. It was China who funded their government during US-West sanctions against Cambodia. Although there are gossips floating around that his son Hun Manet will diversify the ties, there is no such indication yet other than the Gossips by Rainsy. Hun family has been sanctioned by the US. So the dominant power is not pro-US one.
Kith Meng of Royal Group controls
Cambodia's largest conglomerates of telecom, banking, infrastructure. Although
the family declares political neutrality ("leave politics to
politicians") their China economic ties
are well known like Ream Naval Base project, Funan Techo Canal project. Family has Joint ventures with Australia (ANZ
Bank) and EU firms but their interests largely lie in the Chinese projects for
long term.
Sok Kong (Sokimex) group controls
fuel distribution, tourism, and casinos.
The largest tourist influx in Cambodia is Chinese and of course the guests of Casinos they run.
Ly Yong Phat (LYP) Group controls the
agro-industry and the “special zones” benefiting from Chinese casinos. This group too is sanctioned by the US.
Opposition – USAID -NED
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| NGOs in Cambodia in action. Trump taking credit on every peace deal in the world while waging wars . |
USAID-NED has been very
influential in Cambodia's politics. However, its strength now is compromised by the exposure
of its interference in the politics of Cambodia and its influence is
diminishing within the country itself while it is still strong outside of
country.
While USAID financing directed at
the interference for government changes aligned with the US through NED and
NGOS with no substantial change in the
lives of Cambodian people in general, the Chinese infrastructure investments directed
at non-interference, better to say for “stability” in the country, brings
fundamental changes in the lives of Cambodian people. That difference within
the country changing the public perception on the issue of alignment with US or China. The positive
perception created with the USAID-NED is diminishing speedily at the bottom. As we have seen, the decisive group, the large
corporations make up the dominant class are already aligned with China for it
serves their interests better.
Thus, contrary to the Western and NED-proxy local media narrative, Cambodia is not a proxy of or aligned with the US- both as far as the rulers (corporations) and ruled (people) are concerned.
Thailand
Is Thailand a US proxy?
Thailand, as a country never actually
been colonized in the region has its own unique situation. Especially last two
decades Thailand's elites preferred employing
sophisticated hedging strategies based on their economic interests with
superpowers while avoiding overt alignment. It is to a degree a reflection of
its late historical political policy to avoid “colonization” or “ political “dependence”
on the corporations. In general economic-political elite is pragmatist. With
some exceptions, they prioritize business resilience over ideology, leveraging
U.S. capital and Chinese markets while publicly endorsing neutrality. In simple
terms Thai elites will continue profiting from hedging as U.S-China rivalry intensifies.
Comparatively with Cambodia, Thailand has both pro-US corporations and powerful
USAID-NED NGOs active in Thailand. I can argue that due its location in the
region, Thailand serves as a proxy-media hub for all the Western Media and
their extension for all the surrounding countries. That is also fueled and strengthened
with large immigrant population from Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos. Other than US, France,
and Britain, if not for all, Thailand has become a center for most of the “opposition” to any country of the
region. Considering these facts, the internal political conflicts are much more
complex than it is for Cambodia.
Contrary to Cambodia, Thailand has
publicly stated pro-US corporations, powerful USAID-NGO’s, and large number of
proxy media serving the region. Most “analyzers” basis their assessments on
these facts and argue that Thailand is a US-Proxy. However, the concrete facts, as it is on
Cambodia case, proves otherwise for Thailand too.
Lets briefly study the large
corporations of Thailand.
Chearavanont Family (Charoen Pokphand Group) ranks number two according
to Forbes. Core Businesses of the corporation is Agri-food, telecom, retail stores (7-Eleven),
financial tech (Ascend Money). Corporation follows the traditional pragmatist
approach. While it is vocal about criticizing US trade policies, they still see the US as
essential. Their Investment with U.S. firm BlackRock is an indication of this
pragmatism because the family's investments in China are massive, and they also
have economic ties with Japan . Their pragmatist approach; publicly criticize US protectionism
while deepening ties with China, and keeping Western partnerships alive. Family’s 63% of revenues are from overseas operations,
heavily reliant on China and Vietnam markets. They are partner with Chinese firms on
infrastructure and tech.
Yoovidhya family (Red Bull)
may be considered the wealthiest one in
Thailand. Looking at the non-existence of any political statements by them, it
seems they are more pragmatist than any one else who avoids antagonizing any of its market.
Sarath Ratanavadi (Gulf
Energy) ranks number three in Thailand with its core business is focused on
energy, digital infrastructure. Family’s
shift to digital infrastructure with US firms like BlackRock shows the family’s
pro-US alignment. The merger and data center investments are clear indication
for a pro-US tilt. Family merged the Gulf
Energy with Intouch Holdings to attract U.S. investors, listing as Gulf
Development. The degree of their pragmatism, however, will be seen if and when they will burn the bridges with China.
Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi (TCC
Group) ranks number four in Thailand. Their business is focused on Real estate, beverages, and hospitality. The family’s pragmatism and economic hedging
is based on profiting from rivalry without picking sides. Actively courts
Chinese real estate investors shifting capital from the U.S. to Thailand and Singapore
due to trade wars. The family's holdings
in hospitality and liquor also depend on Chinese tourism, so they can't afford
to alienate China.
The Chirathivat family
(Central Group) ranks number five in Thailand. Their business is focused on
Retail, luxury goods, hospitality most of which to a larger degree depends on Chinese
tourism. Pragmatism will make them support
policies that boost Chinese relations especially in tourism, but without openly
opposing the US.
As we see, with few exceptions, pragmatism,
and neutrality which they call “bamboo policy” a flexible, non-committal alignment to
maximize autonomy is dominant within Thailand elite. Largely neutral stance of
governing body is a reflection of how
the elites operate.
At the time of transition from
unipolar world order to multipolar world
order the elites of Thailand can't
afford to pick sides publicly- with a couple exceptions. CP Group is the most
vocal one in its alignment. Gulf Energy
leans US but quietly. Others prioritize business neutrality.
Thailand's historical avoidance
of colonization, the transition to multipolar world order, world wide bellicose
practices of US are important factors in pushing most countries in the region, including
Thailand toward China. Thailand's wealthiest families and their geopolitical
positioning amid U.S.-China tensions, the country's elites employ sophisticated
hedging strategies—balancing economic interests with both superpowers while
avoiding overt alignment.
USAID-NED and NGOs role in
Thailand
USAID-NED and NGOs have played a
major role in Thailand’s political life. That role played had both “soft power”
and “hard power” in its content. That role was not only covering Thailand but
entire region in its “soft power”; winning the “hearts and souls” of people
through funding Thailand's HIV/AIDS
prevention programs, particularly through NGOs like SWING Thailand, which
provided free healthcare services to migrant workers and LGBTQ+ communities.
According to the statistics that specific program reached close to a million people.
This and “environmental programs” “soft power” sections were found to be “unnecessary”
and a “waste” for the new US administration and the funds frozen and/or transferred
to more “beneficial” sections.
Powerful yet largely exposed hypocrisy
of “democracy” and Human rights” , like in almost all countries,
have been carried out by NED-NGOs in Thailand too. USAID, with its annual funding, supported political
dissidents . It should be obvious for any critical minded people that “political
dissidence” only applies to those who are pro-US and dissidents to those
governments who are not.
These “political dissidents” soft
power tactic reinforced with the introduction of “independent media”
which actually proven to be “US-West
proxy media” in its practice. The “dissident”, “independent media” outlets like
“The Irrawaddy”, “Radio Free Asia” heavily depends on USAID-NED for its budget.
Most of all “independent media” (and the dissidents) are based in Thailand leveraging it's status as a regional hub
for NED-NGO networks.
As we can see the situation in Thailand
as far as the “foreign interference”, in this case the US-West interference is
concerned, very much different in reality. US backed NGOs with the same double
standard tactics of US, supports each and every “investment” coming from the US
yet opposes any Chinese investments with fallacy and fictious arguments. They have vehemently opposed and interfere in China joint projects like Mekong River, railways, and industrial zones.
With some obvious exceptions, NGOs (Non Governmental Organizations) are in fact
“Foreign Government Organizations” serving to the interests of their donor
countries. While they claim to be championing
“transparency” when the governments try
to tighten their grip on NGOs foreign finances through “transparency laws” , it is interesting to mention that the fiercest
opposer of this law and practice, is another top NGO called “Transparency
Organization”. It is not so much different in Thailand.
Although the USAID-NED-NGOs have strong existence in Thailand and there are few
large corporations publicly defending a pro-US stance, the fact of the matter
is that the decisive section of the elite are not pro-US or pro-China but
pragmatist.
As a conclusion, neither Cambodia nor Thailand is pro-US or pro-China as far as
the political alignment is concerned. The skirmish with Cambodia is not a consequence
of such alignment but a reflection of
the integral political situations and conflicts on the international arena with
the use (excuse) of “border dispute”. It
is not a coincidence that the transformation of power was going on in Cambodia.
The political crises of 2024 Thai Senate
election and the developments before and after Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodian Senate
President and former Prime Minister Hun Sen phone conversation intensified the
political crises. It seems that the ruling elites of both countries are convinced that
the “nationalist” feelings of their respective people needed to be revived and
reinforced in order to solidify their power.
As I have argued on my previous article, “border disputes” become a “serious issue” as an excuse for
other internal and external pressing issues.
Erdogan A
July 31, 2025
Thailand
Hun Manet's alleged letter for the nomination of Donald Trump for Nobel Peace and my response to sarcastic, uninformed comment on my articles on the issue.
Does this event negate my argument about the reasons for "war skirmish" between Thailand and Cambodia or proves my argument that the "skirmish" was more about the internal political conflicts within both countries ?
Hun Manet, a graduate of the US military academy, West Point, quickly rose in Cambodia's military, holding various key positions. He holds degrees in economics from New York University and Britain's Bristol University. The controversies about his election and his early policies dominates the Cambodian politics for some time already. His oppositions in Cambodia criticized his brother Hun Many’s promotion with accusations of nepotism and corruption. Hun Sen’s attempts to fill the key positions of government with his relatives have become an issue of conflict between the dominant families (corporations) who regarded the appointments as a means of cementing the Hun family as Cambodia’s single ruling family.
I had mentioned that "Although there are gossips floating around his son Hun Manet will diversify the ties, there is no such indication yet other than the Gossips ". So the gossips may turn out to be true.
His letter for the nomination of Donald Trump for Nobel Peace Prize is a strategic move to have leverage in internal conflicts. Whether the US-NED front will come out as victorious or not depends on the political powers of the ruling families- the interests of most whom are aligned with China.
I had argued on my "self -restricted" article that "The common misconception is that Thailand is pro-US, or an ally of US, Cambodia is pro-China, others argue that Cambodia is pro-US, Thailand is pro- China. This confusion by itself reflects the existence of the problems of conflicting politics in each country, meaning that there are conflicting forces in both countries trying to pull the country to have better, primary relations either with US or China." This development is a clear manifestation and confirmation of my argument. Which side will win is a million dollar question with extensive implications on the region.
Again, I argued that " China cannot afford instability and especially an "Americanization" of a country or countries at its under belly. Although it is not mentioned, China already have a huge problem with what is going on Myanmar and do not need another problem". That translates into the high likely possibility of an indirect interference by China in this internal conflict, contingent on the direction of conflict.
As the millions of dollars funneling to Cambodia through NED and NGOs for propaganda, and manipulation of masses, we will have to wait and see the developments that will follow.
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