In search of an off-ramp to "declare victory out of a devastating defeat".
"A full blown attack to Iran seems to be unlikely because the result would be much more humiliating and costly than a withdrawal of ultimatum. We will have to wait and see in a few weeks what the choice of the Neocons will be; political humiliation or military and economic humiliation."
Considering the historical fact that the US Neo-Cons are in the habit of "declaring victory out of defeats" , how will they do the same for the war against Iran under these conditions?
1) Regime change; no "regime change" was achieved in Iran. In reality the assassinated "regime" members were more liberal or moderate than the ones replaced them.
2) Nuclear enrichment and nuclear bomb; Iran rejected the demand for the stop of nuclear enrichment. With the new hardliner "regime" members, it is more plausible that they will be (if they haven't already done so) more leaning towards acquiring a dozen nuclear weapon.
3) They were suffering under the economic (oil) sanctions, now the sanctions were removed for the oil sale and shipment in order to prevent the oil price hike and economic crises world wide.
4) Strait of Hurmuz is not within the international water zone, but it is within Iranian sovereign water rights. Every one was using the Strait free of charge for decades. Now that Iran declared the control of the Strait and started charging for every ship passing through like in the case of Suez Canal, Panama Canal and to some degree Strait of Malacca.
5) US carriers are docked far away from the missile reach of Iran, they cannot even dare to approach to Strait.
6) Most US military bases in the Gulf region have been devastated to a degree that requires very costly and many years long repair in order to be used again.
7) All the US military experts point out that a "land" invasion of Iran could be a suicidal act.
Under these concrete conditions, how can the Neo-Cons find and off ramp and declare victory out of obvious defeat" ?
Logic of Redefining the Objective; If you redefine success as "destroying the shield" rather than "disarming the nuclear program", you can claim victory while the core threat remains.
Contradictory Messages as Feature; through maintaining internally inconsistent claims. When victory conditions are never clearly defined, they can never be clearly failed.
Regime Change by Definition; allows the US to claim regime change was not the goal (thus "no failure"). Or we already have achieved it argument.
"Victory out of defeat" is declared not when the stated objectives are achieved, but when the political cost of continuing exceeds the cost of declaring completion.
The "off-ramp" is not based on battlefield reality. It is based on narrative closure; the ability to tell a story in which what was accomplished matches what was promised, even if what was promised was quietly rewritten after the fact.
Victory in this framework is not a description of reality, it is a political decision to stop describing defeat.
Erdogan A
April 2, 2026
.jpg)
