Turkiye-Israel “war narratives and the hypocrisy of Erdogan- as a mirror of the elites of Turkiye: The Pipelines feeding the Israeli war machine and genocide

Preface

Last year, on April 2025, I had stated in an article that;

 “Turkiye is indeed heavily dependent on the US economically, but as far as political independence is concerned, Turkiye has more political independence than most of the European countries in their relations with the US. That’s why a conflict between Turkiye and Israel in so many ways will be an indirect conflict between the US and Turkiye. It is not a question of if but at what degree the conflict between Israel and Turkiye will be.

The stakes are high for the escalation of  Israeli-Turkish rivalry in Syria… Israel is hardly standing on its feet with the immense support of the US. A war most likely which could bring about the destruction of Israel.  Israel, with its current weak condition, is ready to “fall at the table of the wolves”. Even his long time Arab allies are waiting for Israel to fall at the wolves' dinner table. Especially the elites of Turkiye, the “hungry wolves”, are waiting for the right opportunity and preparing for it. Whether the US-Israel attack Iran or not, contrary to all the narratives, Israel’s situation and condition are desperate and in despair.  Conditions for a new partition of and/or balance of powers  in the Middle East are on the horizon.”

“For the regional leadership and hegemony in the region, using proxies against Israel is the best option for Turkiye since a direct military conflict with Israel does not seem plausible yet. Having said that, the establishment of military bases and the installation of air defense systems in Syria may escalate the situation. They are both trying to fill the void left by Iran as the new leader of the region. The conflict of interests between Israel and Turkiye, and ongoing conflicts in the region, are ripe for the possibility of a direct conflict between Israel and Turkiye. If the conditions do not change, if Israel does not commit suicide by attacking Iran, a direct conflict between Turkiye and Israel is an inevitable outcome…However, the world has changed from a unipolar world order to a multipolar world order structure, which is causing rapid, constant, and unexpected changes. The conditions may change, and the “inevitability” of a conflict may cease to exist.”

The conditions are changing, but the elites of Türkiye are still vacillating between the world powers as an opportunistic tactic - a dangerous game they are playing between the global powers and especially against the interests of the rising regional power, Iran.

Despite all the narratives of Erdogan and Co. on the issue of the genocide in Gaza and the murders, destruction, and forced migration of Lebanese people from the South, Turkiye is still "fueling the war machine" of Israel as a pipeline. However, I have to admit that before I made this research, I was under the impression that that “fueling” was an all-around feeding of the Israeli war machine. I was wrong, and a correction to this  is due.  It is the US “jet fuel’ feeding the Israeli warplanes, Russia’s “diesel” feeding the tanks and demolishing machines, and Azeri-Kazakh “light crude” via Turkey that feeds the refineries and the rest of Israel’s war machine and its economy.  

Introduction: Fuel for the War Machine

Geopolitics is often played out on two stages: one public theater, the other the material exchange. On the public stage, regional powers issue harsh diplomatic condemnations and declare total trade embargoes. On the material stage, the valves remain wide open. Despite official bans and fiery rhetoric, millions of barrels of Caspian crude oil continue to flow uninterrupted through transit hubs to fuel Israel’s military operations. To understand how the war machine is sustained, one must look beyond the talk and observe the physical movement of tankers silently flying their flags on the open sea.

Military equipment (tanks, jets, bulldozers) cannot function without a constant flow of highly refined fuel. A missile requires a target, a soldier requires orders, but a war machine requires fuel. While global headlines focus on the tonnage of US bombs dropped on Gaza, a far quieter and more critical supply line continues to keep the wheels of conflict turning. Beneath the deep-sea trade routes of the Mediterranean lies an invisible pipeline, a network of shell companies and oil tankers. Without this constant influx of foreign oil, Israel's warplanes would be grounded within weeks, and its armored units would be frozen in place. The true architecture of this war is not written in military strategy, but in the ledgers of global energy logistics.

While political attention is focused on arms shipments, Israel's military sustainability relies on a quiet, highly resilient global logistics network encompassing the US, Central Asia, and Türkiye.

The contrast between public diplomatic rhetoric (e.g., Türkiye's trade ban) and concrete reality is visible to the objective eye.

Crude oil from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, while enabling the movement of ground forces and fueling ground warfare (troop transport, military grid backup), is generally not used for advanced fighter jets. The Israeli Air Force requires highly specialized JP-8 military jet fuel to operate its US-made F-16 and F-35 aircraft. Processing crude oil into JP-8 requires specialized and highly regulated refining capacity. Instead of relying heavily on domestic refineries for its air force, Israel imports this military-grade jet fuel directly from the U.S. – U.S. pre-refined fuel supports air combat.

Crude oil from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan is highly available and critical for the Israeli military. While the oil cannot be directly loaded into military vehicles in its raw form, it is processed through domestic refineries to support Israel's ground operations. Azerbaijani light and Kazakh crude oil are highly valuable "sweet" and light crudes. Israeli refineries like Bazan convert this crude oil into high-quality diesel fuel. This diesel powers ground combat machinery, including Merkava tanks, armored personnel carriers (APCs), and heavy D9 armored bulldozers.

Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan supply approximately 70% of Israel's total crude oil. Because Israel lacks domestic oil reserves, its entire local economy and military infrastructure are dependent on this particular supply chain.

The Bazan refinery in Haifa openly markets its role in national defense. They emphasize that "a continuous energy supply to the Israeli army" is a necessity for sustaining ongoing wars. When Israel's domestic refinery production is insufficient—especially during periods of intense military deployment—it imports pre-refined diesel and petroleum products from Russia, historically Israel's largest single wholesale supplier of refined petroleum products. The US sends processed diesel in addition to jet fuel cargoes; Italy and Greece, meanwhile, source refined fuels primarily through Mediterranean refineries, such as Italy's Sarroch refinery in Sardinia.

The Ground War in Gaza and Lebanon: Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, via Turkey

The ground occupation of Gaza and Lebanon relies on a constant supply of "sweet" Caspian crude oil. This high-quality oil, extracted from Azerbaijan's offshore fields and pumped through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, reaches Türkiye's southern port of Ceyhan. Azerbaijan supplies almost half of Israel's total oil imports, making the Caspian-Mediterranean pipeline axis the literal fuel cell of Israel's ground operation.

Sweet crude oil from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan reaches Haifa (BAZAN) and Ashkelon (ORA) to be processed into high-quality military diesel fuel. Ground occupation forces, including Merkava tanks and armored D9 bulldozers, utilize this. Therefore, they are complicit not only in genocide but also in the destruction and demolition of people's settlements.

Air Warfare: The U.S.'s Exclusive Lifeline

While ground vehicles run on domestically produced crude oil, Israel's air operations are supported by a special, pre-refined lifeline from the U.S. Advanced fighter jets like the F-16 and F-35 cannot operate on standard fuel; they require the highly specialized, highly stable JP-8 military jet fuel. This vital resource is produced in Texas refineries by companies like Valero Energy, funded by billions of dollars in U.S. Foreign Military Financing (FMF), and transported across the Atlantic by privately chartered tankers. By sending the fully refined military fuel directly to Israeli airfields, Washington ensures that Israel's air operations remain completely isolated from regional energy supply shocks or domestic refinery bottlenecks.

This component is fully pre-refined in Texas by Valero Energy Corporation, directly funded by U.S. Foreign Military Financing (FMF). This fuel is shipped directly to Israeli military-controlled terminals by privately chartered tankers. This fuel is used exclusively by F-16 and F-35 fighter jet fleets for bombing missions. Therefore, the US is complicit in the genocide in Gaza and Lebanon.

How Oil Flows Continue Despite Trade Embargoes: Hypocrisy and Justifications

The survival of this energy corridor rests on a complex web of legal denial and maritime deception. When questioned about why Azerbaijani oil continues to flow through Turkish ports, fueling a conflict openly condemned by both countries, officials point to international treaty frameworks. They argue that state-owned companies only sell crude oil to multinational "oil giants" like BP and Chevron, and that the final destination is left to the whims of the free market. At sea, however, the deception deepens. Tankers regularly engage in maritime games: spoofing tracking transponders, operating under flags of convenience, and altering customs documents to secretly unload millions of barrels of oil at Israeli terminals, far from public view.

Tankers using "flags of convenience," shutting off tracking transponders (AIS), and falsifying destination documents to conceal deliveries to Israel. Western "Big Oil Companies" (BP, Chevron, Shell, Eni) extract and transport this oil.

Azerbaijan neither apologizes for nor hides its relationship with Israel. When faced with intense pressure from activist groups, neighboring Iran, or public protests in Türkiye, the Azerbaijani state oil company and government use two main justifications to defend its oil supply and energy ties with Israel: a public, corporate excuse that distances the state from sales, and an internal, strategic justification related to national security and defense, based on a purely commercial, legal defense. SOCAR publicly states that the Azerbaijani state does not deliberately choose to supply Israel. Instead, they claim they sell crude oil to large, international oil trading companies and global holdings at the port of Ceyhan. According to this logic, once ownership of the oil passes to these international traders, the traders resell it on the open global market. Azerbaijan claims it does not have a legal mechanism or authority to dictate the final destination of the tankers after the oil is sold.

Turkey and Azerbaijan defend the position that the pipelines are regulated by international agreements and that the actual sales are made by "intermediary" international oil companies.

Behind closed doors and in Azerbaijani domestic media, the relationship with Israel is justified by a direct equation: Azerbaijan provides Israel with energy security, and Israel provides Azerbaijan with military superiority.

The Azerbaijani government reminds its people and regional neighbors that Israel is a vital ally in its fight against Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Up to 69% of Azerbaijan's advanced military equipment – ​​including precision-guided munitions (kamikaze drones), radar tracking networks, and electronic warfare systems – comes directly from Israel. Azerbaijan frames the oil trade as a non-negotiable transaction necessary to protect its sovereignty and defense capabilities. Cutting off Israeli oil would mean cutting off the supply line for the high-tech weapons Azerbaijan uses to deter its regional threats.

Azerbaijan shares a tense border with Iran. Azerbaijan justifies its deep intelligence and energy cooperation with Israel as a necessary geopolitical balancing factor against Iran. While maintaining functional diplomatic channels with Tehran, Azerbaijani state media restricts anti-Israel publications. They characterize their foreign policy as "multi-faceted" and balanced, arguing that their commercial partnerships are independent of the religious or political demands of other Muslim-majority states.

Instead of backing down due to the conflict in Gaza, the Azerbaijani government has further strengthened this relationship. In recent years, Azerbaijan has moved from simply transiting oil to directly integrating into Israel's internal infrastructure: Azerbaijan's SOCAR company has signed explicit agreements with the Israeli Ministry of Energy, acquiring a 10% stake in Israel's Tamar offshore gas field and securing the right to explore for new gas deposits in Israeli territorial waters. By shifting from a simple supplier to a co-owner of Israel's internal energy infrastructure, the Azerbaijani government is clearly signaling that it views its alliance with Israel as a permanent, long-term strategic axis that transcends external political friction.

The Theater of the Israel-Turkey Conflict; "The Narrative of War"

The popular media narrative warning of an impending, direct military confrontation between Turkey and Israel ignores a fundamental factual reality: A nation does not go to war against an army it actively feeds. Turkish President Erdoğan’s hardline anti-Zionist rhetoric and predictions of regional conflict serve as a highly effective domestic theater designed to appease an angry public and position Ankara as the leader of the Muslim world. However, beneath this carefully manufactured hostility lies a silent, unwavering economic capitulation. Turkey has chosen financial profit and legally plausible denial over stated moral principles, allowing its ports to serve as critical launchpads for Azerbaijani oil feeding Israeli tanks. You cannot claim to be the primary defender of a besieged population while simultaneously acting as a gas station for the powers that besiege them.

Türkiye’s official “total trade ban” on Israel is a political illusion debunked by basic maritime data. While Turkish customs have officially banned direct container ship transit from Istanbul to Haifa, the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan remains fully open to the global energy grid. This is the height of geopolitical hypocrisy: Ankara argues that international agreements legally bind its hands and force it to transit Caspian crude oil, which Israel converts into military diesel fuel. This legal shield allows Türkiye to profit from lucrative transit fees and maintain strategic pipeline alliances, while publicly demanding an end to Israeli military actions.

Turkey acts as a transit hub. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline operates under strict international agreement frameworks signed by numerous countries. Türkiye's leadership balances its strong public rhetoric supporting Palestine with the legal and financial reality of its role as a global energy corridor, allowing transit cargo belonging to foreign companies to pass through its ports.

The physical flow of oil proves that, despite the increasing threat of future war, the economic ties connecting Ankara and Tel Aviv are far more resilient than the theatrical hostility that divides them.

If a conflict were to erupt between Turkey and Israel in the near future – a highly probable scenario given that Israel’s current expansionist trajectory leads to the complete collapse of regional stability – it would begin from a position of profound systemic irony. Any future Turkish military mobilization would face an Israeli war machine that Türkiye has supported and strengthened for years. Pipelines running through Turkish territory have for months protected the Israeli military from regional blockades, neutralizing the naval power of allies like Iran. Consequently, the “Israel-Turkey” rivalry is a conflict frozen by economic interdependence. Until Ankara physically pulls the plug on the Ceyhan pipelines, warnings of war will be nothing more than noise masking a multi-million dollar logistical complicity.

Importance of a "cut-off of supply line to Israel's War Machine

Sweet crude oil flowing from Azerbaijan via Turkey is a cornerstone of Israel's long-term military sustainability. Azerbaijan accounts for approximately 40% to 46% of Israel's total oil imports, making it Israel's largest crude oil supplier. Because Azerbaijani light oil is a high-quality "sweet" crude, it is extremely efficient for processing by domestic refineries like Bazan. It produces large quantities of diesel fuel that directly powers ground equipment such as Merkava tanks, armored personnel carriers, and D9 armored bulldozers. This oil pipeline completely bypasses the Persian Gulf. This makes Israel's primary energy source immune to Iranian pressure, naval blockades, or disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Türkiye's "Cutting" of the Oil Pipeline

While Turkey has declared a total trade ban with Israel, oil transit continues uninterrupted due to legal and institutional loopholes.

Kpler's ship tracking data shows that Israel's imports of Azerbaijani crude oil from Ceyhan have actually increased by 31% year-on-year, reaching 94,000 barrels per day, the highest level in three years. Turkey argues that it cannot legally stop the oil. The BTC pipeline is governed by international agreements. Turkey claims it does not own the oil, only hosts the pipeline terminal. Therefore, Turkey argues that it cannot control the final destination chosen by international oil companies after the crude oil is loaded onto tankers. Research published by coalitions such as the BDS Movement and the Progressive International highlights that tankers loading oil in Ceyhan frequently conceal their tracking signals or falsify customs destinations before arriving at Israel's Ashkelon Port to circumvent political friction.

What a Real Cut-Off Would Mean

If Turkey or Azerbaijan were to successfully enforce an absolute, watertight shutdown of this specific corridor, the immediate impacts would be notable but not entirely paralyzing for Israel:

Strategic Vulnerability	Expected Result and Alternatives
Immediate Supply Shock	Israel's domestic refineries would lose nearly half their input overnight, creating an immediate strain on domestic fuel manufacturing.
Increased Fuel Costs	Israel would be forced to buy crude from alternative sources via the open spot market—such as Gabon, Nigeria, or Brazil—substantially increasing shipping distances and transport costs.
Increased Strategic Risk	Relying on alternate maritime routes would leave Israel's energy lifelines far more exposed to regional geopolitical threats and naval blockades.
Air Operations Unaffected	A pipeline shutdown would not impact Israel's aerial campaigns, as its fighter jets run on specialized military jet fuel shipped directly from refineries in the US.

The global supply chain directly feeding the Israeli military's war machine relies on a dual system: the U.S. provides pre-refined military fuels, while a group of global countries and multinational oil companies supply crude oil that Israeli refineries convert into military-grade diesel and gasoline.

Extensive tracking data compiled by Oil Change International reveals the specific state and corporate entities that keep Israeli aircraft, tanks, and armored bulldozers operational.

Aircraft Fuel Supplier (Air War Machine)

The U.S. government and U.S. companies are the sole lifeline for Israel's air operations; specialized JP-8 military jet fuel is required to power F-16 and F-35 fighter jets. The supplier is Valero Energy Corporation, operating from the Bill Greeney refinery in Texas. This fuel is purchased using billions of dollars in U.S. Foreign Military Financing (FMF) aid (U.S. taxpayers' money) and transported directly to Israel via privately chartered U.S. military tankers.

Crude Oil Suppliers (Tank Diesel and Fuel Convertibles)

Since Israel has no domestic crude oil, its refineries are entirely dependent on foreign countries and corporate oil giants to produce the diesel used by Merkava tanks and armored bulldozers. The vast majority of crude oil processed in Israel is supplied by two countries: Azerbaijan, which supplies state-owned crude oil via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline through Turkey; and Kazakhstan, which supplies crude oil exported through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium.

Corporate Suppliers ("Oil Giants")

State-owned crude oil from these regions is extracted, managed, and traded by major Western international oil companies. The main companies controlling the flow of oil to Israel are: Chevron (USA), BP (UK), Shell (UK/Netherlands), Eni (Italy), TotalEnergies (France), and ExxonMobil (USA).

After these foreign raw materials reach Israel, they are processed at the Bazan (Haifa) and ORA (Ashdod) refineries. Finally, the refined fuel is distributed to the Israeli army by domestic energy companies. In particular, the Israeli fuel company Paz Oil Company has an official domestic contract to supply the processed fuel directly to Israeli military bases and airports.

Geopolitical Chessboard: Iran

The Caspian-Mediterranean oil axis poses a serious strategic threat to Iran. Tehran's main geopolitical trump card in the Middle East has been its ability to block global energy corridors, particularly through naval blockades in the Strait of Hormuz. However, Israel has effectively circumvented Iran's geographical trap by securing its crude oil through Turkey and directly investing in natural gas fields off the Mediterranean coast.

Aware that it cannot easily stop shipping routes in the Mediterranean, Iran is using its geographical location to pressure Baku by cutting off trade routes used by Azerbaijani commercial cargo trucks. In response to the growing Israel-Azerbaijan axis, Iran has deepened economic and defense ties with Armenia, Azerbaijan's main regional rival. Tehran presents this support as a counterbalance against the "Zionist presence" on its northern border. The Iranian military frequently conducts unannounced, large-scale, live-fire combat exercises along the Azerbaijani border to send visual warnings against expanding partnerships with Israel.

In the realm of information warfare, Iran is conducting large-scale public opinion campaigns designed to trigger religious and political reactions in Muslim-majority states. Iranian state-backed media constantly highlights the contradiction between Turkish President Erdoğan's hardline pro-Palestinian rhetoric and the fact that Türkiye continues to host a terminal that feeds Israel's war machine. Tehran openly labels Azerbaijan as a proxy state of Israel. When Israel conducts operations or intelligence gathering activities against Iran, Iranian media routinely accuses Baku of providing secret launch pads and military airfields for Israeli special forces; Azerbaijan categorically denies these allegations.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the survival of Israel’s military operation depends more on physical logistics than on ideological support. Bombs and ammunition dominate global headlines, but what keeps the war machine running is the quiet, uninterrupted flow of US jet fuel and Caspian crude oil. As long as international agreements protect pipeline networks, corporate intermediaries manage sales, and tankers conceal their offshore journeys, political condemnations will remain an empty theater. The most powerful leverage for halting the conflict has never been hidden; it flows daily from the valves of Ceyhan and the refineries of Texas. Until the world chooses to disrupt its energy logistics, it will continue to support the reality of war.

Weapons destroy, but fuel empowers. Israel’s ability to sustain intense military operations on multiple fronts is not only a success in domestic defense but also the result of a highly coordinated global supply chain. From Azerbaijan’s oil fields to Texas’ refineries and Türkiye’s transit ports, the material infrastructure of war remains untouched by the political outrage surrounding it. Tracing the fuel is to map the true extent of the conflict. Until this global pipeline network becomes accountable, the wheels of the war machine will continue to turn, fueled by nations that claim to want peace.

The reality of the Caspian-Mediterranean energy axis reveals the deep chasm between global political rhetoric and economic survival. On the international stage, regional powers declare solidarity with the victims and announce comprehensive trade embargoes. But beneath this rhetoric lies a highly functional cross-border network built on arms-for-energy deals, institutional loopholes, and strategic interdependence. Israel, by forging alliances with Azerbaijan and the US, has built a logistical fortress protecting its military from regional blockades. This network of interdependence proves that in modern warfare, lines of complicity are drawn not by flags or public statements, but by the raw pipelines that fuel destruction.

Erdogan A

August 21, 2026