When Allies Become a Liability: Israel, U.S. Public Opinion, and the Specter of False-Flag Attacks
Unlike a relatively peaceful era, our current dynamic period, marked by ongoing wars and increasing attempts to expand and consolidate them, has made focusing on a single topic quite difficult (I am struggling to find time to complete the article "Is China Imperialist?", a continuation of the article "The Scientific Definition of Imperialism").
Israel's increasing isolation worldwide, and particularly in the US where anti-Israel sentiment exceeds 60%, raises a critical question: What happens when a historically privileged satellite state is structurally abandoned by its financiers? The answer, drawing from historical patterns and material analysis, points to the increased likelihood of desperate covert operations, including false flag attacks.
An Unprecedented Reversal in Public Opinion
Between 2025 and 2026, US public opinion toward Israel transformed in historical and ideological significance. This is not a temporary fluctuation, but a structural restructuring of mass consciousness, particularly among younger demographic groups and the Democratic base.
A Pew Research Center poll in April 2025 showed that 53% of US adults held negative views of Israel; by October 2025, this figure had risen to 59%, and remarkably, the disapproval was directed more towards the "Israeli government" than the "Israeli people." By March 2026, Pew data confirmed that 60% of US adults held negative views toward Israel; this figure had risen to 53% in 2025.
A Gallup poll conducted in February 2026 revealed an even more symbolic shift: 41% of Americans said they were more sympathetic to the Palestinians, while 36% said they were more sympathetic to Israel; this was the first time since Gallup began tracking this question in 2001 that Israel had lost the lead. In the 35-54 age group, this difference widened from 46% to 28%; in the 18-34 age group, 53% were more sympathetic to the Palestinians, while only 23% were sympathetic to Israel.
The partisan divide is equally striking: 65% of Democrats were more sympathetic to the Palestinians, while only 17% were more sympathetic to Israel; even among Republicans, traditionally staunch supporters of Israel, sympathy dropped from 80% to 70% in 2024.
This trend is not unique to the United States. Pew’s Spring 2026 Global Attitudes survey showed that 67% of adults across 36 countries held negative views of Israel, compared to only 25% who held positive views. Negative assessments were also the overwhelming majority among Western allies such as the UK (69%), Canada (65%), and Australia (79%). In six European countries (UK, Germany, France, Denmark, Italy, Spain), net positive views toward Israel either reached or approached their lowest levels in history.
The Material Conditions of Desperation
For a Marxist-Leninist analyst, "despair" is not a psychological state, but a material condition of imperialist overexpansion. Aggressive, belligerent rhetoric of the imperialist masks a deep structural weakness. History repeatedly confirmed a cold and ruthless pattern: weakening aggressive and belligerent forces become more desperate and more prone to resorting to covert operations and false flag tactics. When conventional means fail to reverse the downward spiral, extreme measures become an attractive option.
The structural dilemma Israel is currently facing is profound. Its most critical weakness lies not in its military, but in the rapid and dramatic reversal of Western, especially American, public opinion. Israel's racist and expansionist policies have increasingly isolated it internationally, precisely at a time when it is trying to draw more countries into its war against Iran.
In this context, false flag attacks - operations disguised as enemy attacks - become a theoretical tool capable of achieving multiple objectives simultaneously: fabricating an external threat to reverse anti-Israel sentiment, providing a pretext for military escalation, and suppressing anti-civil war voices.
Ammunition Depletion and Logistical Crisis
It has been proven that the US-Israel axis is not financially able to sustain a prolonged, high-intensity war. The war in Ukraine and the ongoing Yemen operation have critically depleted Western military arsenals. Modern warfare requires constant industrial replenishment, something the shrinking US industrial base cannot provide on the necessary scale.
"The US has been losing millions of dollars worth of missiles every day for the past month to shoot down Houthis' cheap drones. The US, or any other country, doesn't have unlimited ammunition; much of its arsenal has been depleted by the war in Ukraine and now against Yemen. As US military experts have pointed out, the US military arsenal is at a critical level for waging war."
"No country has unlimited military equipment and ammunition. It needs to be constantly produced because an expensive weapon without ammunition is worthless in war. This requires a stable economy and an advanced industry." "Logistics means cost, and cost means economy. Supplying an army with ammunition and food, renewing equipment, and sending soldiers thousands of miles overseas is not only challenging but also a costly undertaking."
Strategic Failure Against Iran
Despite the narrative of "victory" propaganda, the objective reality is that the US-Israel axis has lost the war against Iran. Iran has proven its resilience; its military infrastructure is intact and survivable, and its capacity for retaliation remains intact. The neoconservatives' fantasy of "regime change" through air power has no historical precedent. In one of my articles, I stated:
"Despite all the narratives of 'defeat against victory' in the 12-day war, it is clear to anyone with common sense and critical thinking that the US-Israel-West has lost the war against Iran."
"This decline, these defeats and disappointments are making them much more and more overtly aggressive, and they are shooting themselves in the foot at every step." (6)
In another article, I stated:
"A country as large as Iran cannot be subdued by aerial bombing. This requires a ground invasion, and for that, a million infantry soldiers."
"They will probably inflict significant damage on Iran, but they won't defeat Iran. First and foremost, Israel will be the worst loser of this war. Israel's fate is already uncertain as it is; a war against Iran could eliminate that question and provide a practical answer."
"Iran is a massive country with a population of 95 million, possessing a rigid ideology that refuses to accept defeat. Iran has thousands of long-range missiles capable of destroying Israel and all US military bases in the Middle East."
"As evidenced by what they've kept hidden from Western media, Iran has an air defense system that even Israeli planes couldn't understand and which backfired on their recent attacks on Iran. Despite all their self-praising propaganda, they haven't been able to produce any concrete evidence of success."
The Unavoidable Shift in Regional Balance of Power
The war accelerated the end of the US unipolar era in West Asia. Iran, along with the Russia-China axis, emerged as a permanent power pole in the region. The regional balance is shifting irrevocably against US-Israeli interests.
"Undoubtedly, the war imposed on Iran by the US and Israel brought an end to the US unipolar era in the Middle East. A military encirclement of Iran is logistically impossible; the only remaining viable strategic option is cooperation."
"The Russia-China-Iran axis is not a 'limited' alliance, but an existential, structural alignment. Their support is tactically indirect, but strategically complete and based on the geography of the Eurasian landmass."
"Iran emerged from the war not as a weakened state with internal weaknesses, but as a resilient actor. Food security is stable, the security apparatus is robust, and contrary to Western narratives, internal ruptures are not a viable fifth column." "Historically, there is no precedent for strategic bombing alone subjugating a nation-state, given Iran’s geographical depth, mountainous topography and extensive missile infrastructure. The U.S. bombed North Vietnam for years; it lost. It bombed Iraq from 1991 to 2003; regime change required a ground invasion. It bombed Afghanistan for twenty years; it lost to peasant militias." (4)
Regional Isolation of US-Israel
The US-Israel axis is diplomatically and militarily isolated within the region. Most Gulf states have refused to allow access to their territories for an attack on Iran. US aircraft carriers are being moved away from vulnerable areas, a clear indication of the expectation of possible Iranian retaliation.
"The Persian Gulf states have officially stated that they will not allow their territories to be used or accessed in any way for a war against Iran. They will also not allow the use of their airspace to attack Iran or for aerial refueling of US warplanes."
"If the US uses bases in small countries in the Middle East, it will be the end for countries like Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE."
"US aircraft carriers would be easy targets for Iranian missiles. The fact that the US has already moved its aircraft carriers away from vulnerable positions in the Persian Gulf is an indication of the expectation of possible Iranian retaliation." (5)
"In general, Neo-Conservatives, and especially those in the US, live in a fantasy world detached from the realities of the present world. They vehemently reject the transformation from a unipolar order to a multipolar order, where they cannot ride their horses as they please without any opposition or resistance from the rest of the world."
"They are becoming increasingly isolated from the world, not only politically but also through 'tariff' policies; economically isolated not only from the world in general but especially from their close allies." (6)
Finance Capital, Not "Israel Controls the US"
The dominant bourgeois narrative, "Israel controls the US government", is not an explanation; it is a damage control mechanism designed to protect the imperialist system from accountability.
"But in the US, despite their narratives and heated debates, both parties are two sides of the same coin. This is a scene of 'democracy' where people have only two options given to them by the 'ruling class'; this ruling class is defined by finance capital, which has larger interests in the military and technology industries."
"In the US, the ruling classes control the government, setting its policies through unelected bureaucrats who have held key positions in state institutions for many years, selected and/or approved by the 'ruling class'."
"Foreign policies are controlled and determined by these unelected state officials, and a few think tank research groups, such as the Rand Corporation, that serve the ruling class." (1)
"Decisions on US foreign policy are made by a unified 'financial-industrial-military bureaucracy'; this is the institutional expression of the ruling class at the monopoly stage."
"Conflicts exist, but these are 'non-antagonistic' conflicts; they occur not between fundamentally opposing factions of capital, but within the bureaucracy and between different factions." (2)
The "Israel Controls the US" Narrative is Damage Control
The claim that Israel controls Washington is a convenient smokescreen. Policies that are actually an integral part of American imperialism serve as a "foreign agent" accusation. By sacrificing Israel as a scapegoat, the imperial core aims to preserve its own legitimacy. The widespread claim that "Israel controls the U.S." is not an explanation of U.S. foreign policy; it is a "damage control mechanism" designed to place the blame for decades of warmongering on a convenient scapegoat, Israel, thus preserving the legitimacy of American imperialism. (2)
"The widespread narrative that Israel controls the U.S. is essentially a persistent illusion that serves as damage control for the impending isolation of the American empire."
"It is not governments that control financial capital, but financial capital that controls governments. Elected officials are puppets who implement the final cost-benefit analyses prepared by a permanent, unelected bureaucracy."
"The 'Israel lobby' narrative is a convenient smokescreen." In reality, Israel is still a satellite state, and when the cost of defending its policies becomes catastrophic for the global hegemony of the US, the satellite state is sacrificed." (3)
Israel: From "Exception" to "Expendable"
For decades, Israel enjoyed exceptional status, receiving unconditional aid and diplomatic protection from the US. However, the cost-benefit ratio for the finance capital has shifted. This shift from "exceptional" to "general" means that Israel is now treated as a standard geopolitical entity: useful only insofar as it serves the broader stability of the US empire. The recent MOU, the memorandum of understanding, is definitive proof that the moment of sacrifice has arrived. (3)
Cost-Benefit Calculation Prevents Full-Scale War
Financial capital subordinates the interests of any sector (including the military industry) of any country to the interests of the entire system. A full-scale war against Iran would be economically incalculably devastating; therefore, despite belligerent rhetoric, a major war is unlikely; however, limited provocations are always possible.
"It is a historically proven political fact that the bureaucracy is not an 'elite' or 'ruling' class in itself, but a social class that does not create 'value,' but controls the process of coordination, distribution, and consumption of the 'value' created, serving the interests of the ruling classes; it would be fair to say that the final decision will be made by the ruling classes, in conjunction with and through the 'unelected' members of state institutions who have extensive think tank expertise to ensure that decisions serve them. In any case, the benefit must always outweigh the cost of any action."
"Would a war against Iran be in the interests of finance capital and all other industries? I don't think so. The only industry that makes money, even if it doesn't lose, is the military industry. This is not an 'independent' industry, but part of Finance Capital Holding, which has financial interests in every industry, every trade, every stage of commercial life. The interests of the 'part' are always subordinate to the interests of the 'whole'; in this case, the costs will devastatingly outweigh the benefits."
"So, despite all the belligerent rhetoric, a war against Iran seems unlikely. It seems like a dangerous bluff at its extreme, and in the end, there will be some kind of attack, at least to some degree." (5)
Historical Precedents: A Track Record of Israel Not to Be Ignored
Israel has a documented historical record of conducting false flag operations and attacks against its own allies when its strategic interests require it. This is not a matter of "conspiracy theory," but of declassified history.
The Lavon Affair (1954): In this covert Israeli operation, codenamed "Operation Susannah," Egyptian Jews were tasked with planting bombs in civilian targets such as cinemas, libraries, and US cultural centers belonging to Egyptian, American, and British institutions. The aim was to blame Egyptian militant groups and create a rift between the West and Egypt. The operation failed and is known in Israel as the "Unfortunate Incident" or "Bad Business," but its purpose—to manipulate great power politics through false flag terrorism—is clear.
USS Liberty Incident (1967): On June 8, 1967, during the Six-Day War, Israeli warplanes and torpedo boats attacked the U.S. Navy intelligence ship USS Liberty in international waters, killing 34 American crew members and wounding 171. Israel officially attributed the attack to "misidentification," but a post-incident CIA memorandum described the chain of alleged "misidentification" as "extremely bizarre," claiming that an authorized naval commander miscalculated the Liberty's speed twice at 30 knots and justified the attack based solely on "a single unidentified rapid radar contact."
Over the years, survivors and researchers have unearthed significant evidence challenging the "misidentification" narrative. Whatever the ultimate truth, this incident has become a symbolic example of Israel's willingness to harm its own allies for its perceived self-interest.
Mossad's Tradition of Deception: From Mossad agents posing as CIA operatives to recruit Pakistani militants to attack Iran in 2007-2008, to the September 2024 attack on Hezbollah using concealed high-performance pagers, Israeli intelligence agencies have institutionalized deception and false flag tactics into an art form.
Capability and Motive: Why false flag attacks are "Highly Likely"
Israel possesses the capability to conduct false flag operations within the US and Europe. Its infiltration of Western governments and intelligence systems is documented. Its expertise in video manipulation and disseminating disinformation is proven. And its disregard for human life, whether allied or foe, transcends all moral boundaries.
Deep infiltration capabilities: In June 2026, the US Department of Defense upgraded its intelligence threat assessment against Israel from "High" to the highest level, "Critical." Reports indicate that Israel has been eavesdropping on high-ranking US officials negotiating with Iran. Israel's infiltration of the US government, military, and intelligence systems is far greater than that of a typical ally.
Information warfare expertise: Israel has extensive experience in fabricating videos, spreading disinformation, and manipulating public perception.
Disregard for human life. From the bombing of civilian targets in the Lavon Incident to the 34 American sailors killed on the USS Liberty, history shows that Israel does not give sufficient importance to the lives of its allies or enemies while pursuing its strategic objectives.
Conclusion: The "Damage Control" Trap and the Impending Gambit
When US public support for Israel hits an all-time low, when 67% of the global population views Israel negatively, and when even the US Republican base—Israel's most loyal supporters—begins to show internal divisions, Israel is facing not a mere public opinion fluctuation, but a structural crisis of legitimacy.
A desperate regime facing such a crisis usually does not remain idle. False flag attacks disguised as attacks by Iran or pro-Iranian forces against US and European targets offer a seemingly viable way out: creating an external threat, reversing public perception, and providing a pretext for escalating war. Israel possesses this capability, the means, and the historical model; material desperation and operational capability all point in this direction.
Marxist-Leninist readers should avoid the bourgeois conspiracy theories. The narrative that "Israel controls the US" will inevitably gain momentum as mainstream media tends to blame "all the bad things" on the Israeli leadership. However, this is not a surrender to anti-imperialist truth, but systemic damage control for the imperialist core. To reiterate from the previous article:
"'The popular claim that Israel controls the U.S.' is not an explanation of U.S. foreign policy, but a 'damage control mechanism' designed to place the blame for decades of warmongering on a convenient scapegoat and thus preserve the legitimacy of American imperialism." (2)
Finance capital preserves the legitimacy of American imperialism by sacrificing its client, Israel. In this context, the false flag operation is not a tool of a "master" (Israel) over the U.S., but a desperate last resort of a small partner facing the imminent threat of being abandoned by its financiers. Israel is fighting for its own survival against the system that gave rise to it.
The material reality of the multipolar world is undeniable:
"The neoconservatives of the US shot themselves in the foot at every turn with their exceptional, supremacist, belligerent, and aggressive policies stemming from the illusion that the world is still unipolar and that they are the sole hegemon." (5)
"'The unipolar world' fantasy is over." (4)
This is not a prediction based on "evidence" because false flag operations, by their very nature, leave no evidence. However, this is a judgment based on historical patterns, the current objective situation, and rational inference. When an actor with an institutionalized tradition of false flag operations, deep penetration capabilities, and increasing desperation faces an unprecedented legitimacy crisis, the probability of false flag attacks cannot and should not be underestimated.
Under current conditions, the likelihood of false-flag operations within the U.S. and the West leans closer to "highly likely" than to "unlikely." This is not alarmism, but rather a sober examination of history and reality.
Erdogan A
August 3, 2026
Notes:
I acknowledge the use of DeepSeek for streamlining the process. DeepSeek’s note for giving credit:” I appreciate the credit note, though the real work is yours; I merely organized the bricks you already fired in your kiln.”
All quotes are drawn from:
(1): Erdogan A, "Ongoing debate on who controls whom?" (April 2025)
(2): Erdogan A, "Who Actually Makes the Decisions for Foreign Policy in the US?" (June 2026)
(3): Erdogan A, "From Exception to Expendable" (June 2026)
(4): Erdogan A, "An unavoidable structural change in the Middle East" (June 2026)
(5): Erdogan A, "War against Iran; a prelude to war against China?" (April 2025)
(6): Erdogan A, "Riots in Iran; another failure and defeat" (January 2026)
