Concrete facts and fallacies: On the Western narrative of “not even an inch of progress in Ukraine”.
On a typical map of Ukraine, one inch might represent anywhere from 50 to over 100 kilometers of actual ground. So when Western media or officials speak in vague terms like "no progress" or "minimal advances, not even an inch," they often gloss over the fact that even a few kilometers of hard-won terrain—especially through heavily fortified defensive lines—represents a massive operational achievement involving thousands of troops, equipment, and logistics.
The concrete data we summarized below (settlement counts, specific percentage claims for oblasts, and operational objectives like "security zones") gives a much clearer picture than fantasy-based narratives. Whether one agrees with the political framing on either side, the physical territorial changes are measurable and undeniable even if they don't always translate into dramatic shifts on a small-scale map.
Looking at the geography, as we
argued in our 2022 article, Russia, to achieve its strategic goals- landlocking
Ukraine via Odesa, securing the Donbas industrial belt, and establishing
northern buffers via Kharkiv—directly targets the precise oblasts that give
Ukraine its coastline, its river crossings (Dnieper), and its eastern defensive
depth.
We argued in our early articles in 2022, we have said that, after Russia got
rid of its “Western” delusions, the longer the war lasts, the more territory
Russia will invade, but will not go beyond the Dnieper River. In our era,
invading a country is not only militarily but also economically a suicidal act,
and only someone with the intelligence level of Trump could be ignorant of that
concrete fact."
No one in
their sane mind who does not rely only on the mainstream Western media and
their “wishful thinking” living in fantasy land can claim that Ukraine is
winning the war or has any chance ever to win this war.
Let's put
the raw known km² numbers and then calculate what Ukraine's residual size was,
and is now, and would be under different scenarios.
Unlike Western narratives, the Russian official statements on the subject are generally more reliable and, in some cases, less than the statements made by pro-Russian mapping sites.
According to the latest statements from Russian official and pro-Russian
sources as of mid‑2026, the claimed control percentages for these oblasts are
as follows:
Luhansk
Oblast: 100%, Donetsk Oblast: over 85%, Zaporizhzhia
Oblast: about 80%, Kherson: about
76%.
Here is
more detailed information:
Russian
Official Statements (June 2026)
These
figures primarily come from President Vladimir Putin's public remarks at
the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on June 4, 2026.
Luhansk
Oblast (100%): Putin stated that the Russian military has achieved
"full control" over the region.
Donetsk
Oblast (>85%): Putin said control has exceeded 85%. He noted that the
Ukrainian military's hold on the region had shrunk from a previous 25% to less
than 15%.
Zaporizhzhia
Oblast (~80%): Putin claimed that Russian forces control about 80% of the
region.
Kherson
Oblast
Assessments
from Other Sources
In addition
to official statements, some research institutions and media outlets have
published their own assessments, which differ slightly from the official
claims:
(Pro
Ukraine) Institute for the Study of War (ISW): In its assessment
dated June 5, 2026, ISW suggested that actual Russian control might
be slightly lower than official propaganda suggests:
Luhansk
Oblast: 99.77%, Donetsk Oblast: 79.93%, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
74.99%
Russian
Ministry of Defense: In a statement on May 14, 2026, the
Ministry also reaffirmed that the "Luhansk People's Republic has been
fully liberated."
Let's go
back and see what it was;
BASELINE:
Control BEFORE February 2022 (Feb 23, 2022)
|
Category |
Area (km²) |
% of Ukraine (603,628 km²) |
|
Total
territory controlled by Russia antifascist forces (Crimea + Donbas +
small parts of Kherson/Zaporizhzhia) |
~43,000 |
~7.1% |
|
— of
which, within the 4 annexed Oblasts (Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson) |
~19,000 |
~3.1% |
|
Territory controlled by Ukraine |
~560,600 |
~92.9% |
Now let’s compare it with the current.
Control as of SEPTEMBER 2026
|
Oblast / Region |
Total Area (km²) |
% Controlled (estimate) |
Controlled Area (km²) |
|
Luhansk |
26,684 |
100% |
26,684 |
|
Donetsk |
26,517 |
85% |
22,539 |
|
Zaporizhzhia |
27,183 |
80% |
21,746 |
|
Kherson |
28,461 |
76% |
21,630 |
|
Kharkiv (est.) |
31,415 |
7% |
~2,199 |
|
Dnieper (est.) |
31,900 |
5% |
1,595 |
|
Nikolai (est.) |
24,598 |
1% |
225 |
|
Odessa |
33,310 |
0% |
0 |
|
Crimea |
26,000 |
100% |
26,000 |
|
Sumy / other
border areas (est.) |
~2,000 |
— |
~2,000 |
|
TOTAL Russian‑controlled territory (all of Ukraine) |
603,628 |
— |
~124,265 |
- Total Russian‑controlled area (all of Ukraine) = ~124,600
km²
- This equals ~20.6% of Ukraine (not
16.3%, because Crimea and Sumy are now added back into the total).
NET GAIN SINCE FEBRUARY 2022
|
Metric |
Area (km²) |
|
Total Russian
control BEFORE 2022 |
~43,000 km² |
|
Total Russian
control CURRENT (Sep 2026) |
~124,600 km² |
|
NET TERRITORIAL GAIN by Russia |
~81,600 km² |
81,600 km² is larger than the Czech Republic (78,800 km²) and
slightly smaller than Austria (83,900 km²).
BREAKDOWN: What Ukraine Has
LOST in the 4 Annexed Oblasts Alone
|
Oblast |
Ukraine‑controlled BEFORE 2022 |
Ukraine‑controlled CURRENT (Sep 2026) |
Lost by Ukraine |
|
Luhansk |
~18,300 km² |
~0 km² |
~18,300 km² |
|
Donetsk |
~18,600 km² |
~3,978 km²
(15%) |
~14,600 km² |
|
Zaporizhzhia |
~25,800 km² |
~5,437 km²
(20%) |
~20,400 km² |
|
Kherson |
~27,000 km² |
~6,831 km²
(24%) |
~20,200 km² |
|
TOTAL (4 Oblasts) |
~89,700 km² |
~16,246 km² |
~73,500 km² |
Based on these:
TRANSLATING THE "1
INCH" NARRATIVE
Total net gain (83,500 km²) over
54 months (Feb 2022 – Sep 2026).
- Average per month: ~1,546 km².
- Average per week: ~357 km².
Map scale reality:
- At 1:1,000,000 scale, 1 inch = 25.4 km.
- A 25.4 km advance along a 100 km front
= 2,540 km².
- 83,500 km² ÷ 2,540 km² per "inch" = ~33
inches of cumulative frontline shift across active sectors over
4.5 years.
When Western media says,
"Russia only moved an inch," they are describing a cumulative 33
inches (2.75 feet) of territorial redrawing on the operational
map—which equals 83,500 km² of real ground, larger than the
Czech Republic.
FUTURE PROJECTION
|
Scenario |
Total Controlled (km²) |
% of Ukraine |
|
Full 8
Oblasts (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Dnieper, Mykolaiv, Odesa,
Kharkiv) |
230,068 |
38.1% |
|
+ Crimea |
+26,000 |
+4.3% |
|
+ Sumy buffer
(full) |
+~20,000 |
+3.3% |
|
TOTAL
PROJECTED CONTROL |
~276,000 |
~45.7% |
|
Remaining Ukraine |
~327,600 |
~54.3% |
Ukraine (~327,600 km²) would be landlocked, stripped of all Black Sea coast,
and roughly the size of Germany (357,000 km²) — still large,
but strategically crippled.
QUICK REFERENCE CARD
|
Question |
Answer |
|
What did Russia control before 2022? |
~43,000 km² (7.1%) |
|
What does Russia control now (Sep 2026)? |
~124,600 km² (20.6%) |
|
How much has Russia gained since Feb 2022? |
~81,600 km² |
|
How much has Ukraine lost in the 4 annexed oblasts? |
~73,500 km² (from ~89,700 to ~16,200) |
|
How large is that gain compared to countries? |
Larger than the Czech Republic (78,800 km²), slightly smaller
than Austria (83,900 km²) |
|
What is the projected maximum
footprint? |
~276,000 km² (~45.7% of
Ukraine) if all 8 oblasts + Crimea + Sumy fall |
|
What does "1 inch"
really mean? |
33 inches (2.67 feet) of
cumulative map movement = 81,600 km² |
Summary
In summary, as of June 2026, the
official Russian position is that they have completely liberated Luhansk Oblast
and captured over 85% of Donetsk Oblast, about 80% of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and
about 76% of Kherson Oblast. While these figures are higher than some
independent estimates, they represent the Russian government's latest official
stance.
Russia’s western direction limit
is at the Dnieper River. From a logistical and defensive standpoint, the
Dnieper is a formidable natural barrier—it's up to 2 km wide in places, with
steep right (western) banks that favor the defender. For any army, forcing a
mass crossing westward would be a high-risk, attritional operation that offers
diminishing strategic returns compared to consolidating the eastern industrial
and coastal belt.
Sumy Oblast fits perfectly into
"northern buffer" logic. If the conflict drags on beyond the current
frontline dynamics, Sumy—along with the remainder of Kharkiv—would become
essential for securing Russia's border with the Belgorod and Kursk regions.
It’s flat, relatively open terrain, but taking or heavily contesting it would
push Ukrainian long-range fires and cross-border raiding further away from
Russia's domestic supply hubs. In that sense, Sumy is the logical northern
extension of the plausible framework.
So the overall projection—full
consolidation east of the Dnieper, Odesa for landlocking and Sumy/Kharkiv as a
northern buffer—represents a coherent maximum feasible footprint. Going west of
the Dnieper would overextend supply lines without adding equivalent strategic
value (no major coastline, less industry, and heavily fortified urban centers
like Cherkasy or Poltava).
If the war continues in the long
term, time tends to favor the side with deeper manpower reserves and a shorter
internal supply chain—which, given the current correlation of forces, tilts the
map incrementally in the outlined direction above.
According to statistics from
Russian official media (TASS, Sputnik) and the Russian Ministry of Defense's
combat reports, as of September 1, 2026, Russian forces' progress in Kharkiv
Oblast and Sumy Oblast is primarily reflected in the control of settlements.
Below are the detailed figures
based on Russian-published data:
Kharkiv Oblast
- Total settlements controlled: From January 1
to August 31, 2026, Russian forces "liberated" a total of 53
settlements in Kharkiv Oblast.
- Summer offensive results (June–August): During
this period, Russian forces took control of 23 new settlements.
In the month of August alone, they added 9 settlements.
- Recent tactical developments: The Russian
"West" Group of Forces is advancing along a broad front toward
the west, while the "North" Group is also continuing to expand
its zone of control in the border areas between Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts.
Sumy Oblast
- Total settlements controlled: During the same
period, Russian forces "liberated" a total of 30
settlements in Sumy Oblast.
- Summer offensive results (June–August): During
the summer offensive, Russian forces took control of 11 new
settlements. In August alone, they added 6 settlements.
- Recent specific gains: On August 30, the
Russian Ministry of Defense announced the capture of the settlements
of Velikiy Prikol and Sadki.
- Strategic objective: Russian sources state
that the main goal in Sumy Oblast is to establish a "security
buffer zone" to protect the border regions of Belgorod and
Kursk oblasts. Russian forces are currently approximately 10
kilometers from the regional capital, Sumy city, but have no
plans to capture the city itself.
So, let’s ask the question again:
has Russia progressed and/or is progressing less than “an inch?” Is Ukraine winning the war? The correct
question is: is the US-EU winning the war, or does it have any chance of winning
the war against Russia (for existential reasons, that means against
Russia-China-North Korea)?
Engels had given the answer to
this question over a century ago. Nothing is more dependent on the economy than
the military. Any protracted war depends on the existence of a highly developed
producer industry that not only can feed the military but also the people. US, with its depleted military stock, its
replenishing of military weapons totally dependent on material from China, and
its economy on the path to a crisis – so the EU countries with an insignificant
number of militaries and military means, collapsing economies, on the path to a
collapse of NATO-EU – what chances they-Ukraine has against an alliance of
Russia-China-North Korea with their booming economies?
Erdogan A
September 2, 1026
