The Ansarallah Defensive War and the West’s Narrative: A Tactic with wishful thinking, Not a Prediction

A Marxist-Leninist Analysis of the Sectarian Narrative and the Material Forces Dissolving It

Introduction: The Dialectics of a Manufactured Conflict

The dominant narrative in Western media and among the Gulf rentier states presents the Yemeni war as a sectarian conflict—a "Shia" Ansarallah against a "Sunni" Saudi-led coalition. This narrative is not a neutral description. In dialectical terms, it is a thesis advanced by the imperialist axis to produce a predetermined result: the mobilization of Sunni-majority populations against a movement that is, in its objective composition and practice, far more complex than the label suggests. The antithesis emerges from the material conditions: the multi-sectarian character of Ansarallah, the failure of sectarian mobilization, the shift in Muslim public opinion, and the exposure of the Saudi regime's economic and military integration with Israel. The synthesis is the dissolution of the sectarian narrative under the weight of objective facts—a unity of Muslim masses in anti-imperialist sentiment that the imperialist axis cannot reverse through propaganda alone.

The claim that Ansarallah's war against the Saudi autocracy will ignite a worldwide Shia-Sunni conflict is not a prediction. It is a tactic. And like all tactics of the imperialist axis, it is failing under the weight of its own contradictions.

The Sectarian Narrative as a Tactic, Not a Prediction

The claim that Ansarallah's war against the Saudi autocracy will ignite a worldwide Shia-Sunni conflict functions, in dialectical terms, as a self-fulfilling prophecy. It is a tactical ideological weapon whose primary aim is to produce the result it describes. Western media and their regional allies consistently frame Ansarallah as a "Shia" movement and the Yemeni war as a "proxy" conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia. This framing is not an innocent description of sectarian identity; it is an active intervention designed to mobilize Sunni populations against a movement that is, in its objective composition and practice, far more complex than the label suggests.

The material interests behind this tactic are clear. The Saudi ruling family and its Western backers require a sectarian narrative to:

• Justify the blockade and bombing of Yemen to their own populations.
  
  
• Recruit Sunni-majority states (Turkey, Pakistan) into the war.
  
  
• Conceal the class character of the conflict—a war of a corrupt rentier autocracy against a popular movement demanding the end of a crippling blockade.
  
  
• Obscure the Saudi regime's deepening economic and military integration with Israel.

The narrative is thus not a prediction based on objective analysis but an instrument of war. It is the thesis of the imperialist axis.

The Objective Composition of Ansarallah: A Multi-Sectarian Popular Movement

The assertion that Ansarallah is a "Shia" organization is contradicted by the objective evidence. Ansarallah (Supporters of God) emerged from the Zaidi community, an offshoot of Shia Islam, but it has never been a purely sectarian movement. Zaidis constitute roughly 35% of Yemen's population, with Sunnis accounting for about 65%. The movement itself has explicitly recruited and allied with Sunni Muslims and integrates popular sectors, secular elements, and leftist forces into its ranks. Analysts note that Ansarallah "is not sectarian or doctrinal; its only reference is the Holy Quran, and for it, the Shia-Sunni debate is not raised". The group expanded far beyond its Zaydi roots, becoming a wider national movement opposed to the Saudi-backed government.

This multi-sectarian character is not incidental; it is a material fact that directly refutes the premise of an inevitable sectarian war. A movement that unites Zaidis, Sunnis, and secular forces in a common struggle against a foreign-backed blockade cannot be reduced to a "Shia proxy" without doing violence to the evidence. This is the first negation of the imperialist thesis.

The Humanitarian Blockade as a Class War, Not a Sectarian War

The Saudi-led blockade of Yemen, now approaching its twelfth year, has produced a humanitarian catastrophe that is the largest in modern history. The blockade has prevented food, medicine, and medical travel, resulting in the deaths of over 1.4 million civilians. This is not a war between Shia and Sunni; it is a war waged by a rentier autocracy, armed and supported by Western imperialism, against an impoverished population. The class character of the blockade is undeniable: it targets the entire Yemeni people, regardless of sect, to force the surrender of a popular resistance movement.

The demand to end the blockade—a legitimate and lawful demand—is the central issue. The sectarian narrative serves to obscure this demand by reframing a war of national liberation and anti-imperialist resistance as a religious conflict. The material reality is that the Saudi autocracy, with its oil wealth and Western arms, is the aggressor, and the Yemeni people are the victims.

The Saudi-Israel Business Relationship: The Material Refutation of the Sectarian Claim

This is the crucial antithesis to the imperialist thesis. The Saudi regime presents itself as the defender of Sunni Islam against Israel and the "Shia" Ansarallah. The material reality is that Saudi capital flows directly into Israeli military industries through the Trump family network, making the Saudi autocracy an indirect financier of the Israeli war machine.

The Affinity Partners–Saudi PIF Nexus: The $2 Billion Foundation

The central conduit is Affinity Partners, the private equity firm Jared Kushner established on January 21, 2021—one day after the first Trump administration ended and Kushner left his formal White House position. Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) invested $2 billion in the newly launched fund shortly after its creation, making Riyadh Affinity's largest and earliest investor.

This was not a passive financial transaction. Reports indicate that PIF's own investment staff advised against the transaction, but Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman overruled their concerns and approved the $2 billion commitment. The investment committee reportedly called the firm "inexperienced". The political decision overrode the financial judgment.

Affinity's total capital grew to more than $6 billion by 2025, with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE providing the overwhelming majority of the funding. Kushner's firm collects 1.25% annually in management fees from the Saudi investment alone—approximately $25 million per year from this single source.

Saudi Capital Flowing Into Israeli Companies

The Saudi money invested through Affinity Partners has been deployed directly into Israeli firms, creating the indirect financial chain that exposes the sectarian narrative as a lie. The documented investments include:

Shlomo Group: In September 2023, Affinity Partners paid $150 million for a 15% stake in the car rental and credit business of Israel's Shlomo Group. This was Affinity's first Israeli investment. The family-owned conglomerate's interests extend beyond the auto industry into construction, real estate, and shipbuilding—including naval vessels.

Phoenix Financial: In July 2024, Affinity purchased approximately 4.95% of Israeli financial group Phoenix Financial for $128.5 million. By January 2025—just five days before Trump's inauguration—Affinity had doubled its stake to nearly 10%, becoming the company's largest shareholder*. In July 2026, Affinity sold a portion of its shares for $343 million while retaining the position of largest single shareholder with 7.4%.

The Military Dimension: Saudi Money Reaching Israeli Defense Contractors

This is the most direct refutation of the Saudi claim to be a defender of the Muslim ummah against Israel. Phoenix Financial holds investments in at least nine companies supplying equipment and services to the Israeli military, with a combined value exceeding $456 million. The breakdown includes:

• Elbit Systems — Israel's largest arms manufacturer — at least $265.1 million
  
  
• Next Vision — electro-optical systems for military drones — at least $68.3 million
  
  
• Bet Shemesh Engines — engines for Israeli warplanes — at least $55.8 million
  
  
• Reshef Technologies — electronic fuses for artillery shells — at least $40.2 million
  
  
• Other holdings include Israel Shipyards (naval vessels) and Ashot Ashkelon (tank and armored vehicle parts)

Elbit Systems alone won contracts from Israel's defense ministry including approximately $200 million for advanced airborne munitions** and **$48 million for thousands of 155mm artillery shells. Elbit's weapons systems have been traced to the killings of Palestinians in Gaza.

The financial chain is therefore direct and traceable: Saudi PIF → Affinity Partners → Phoenix Financial → Elbit Systems and other Israeli military suppliers. Gulf capital invested through Kushner's firm is indirectly exposed to companies that Israel is using to wage war on Gaza and other Arab states.

 Direct Israeli Military Sales to Saudi Arabia

Beyond the investment chain, Israel has supplied advanced military systems to Saudi Arabia directly. As part of a Boeing contract to sell F-15SA jets to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia received 462 JHMCS helmets and 462 AN/AVS-9 night-vision glasses manufactured by Israeli firms. The JHMCS helmet displays flight data on the pilot's visor, enabling target lock and fire capability, and costs approximately $200,000 each. Israeli defense companies, including Elbit Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries, have supplied Saudi Arabia with advanced missile protection systems and battle helmets for its F-15 fleet.

The Strategic Framing: "Building an Economic Link Between Saudi Arabia and Israel"

Kushner's investments in Israel have been explicitly presented as part of an effort to build an economic link between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Wall Street Journal reported that Affinity planned to invest billions of dollars of Saudi money in Israeli startups, with the first two Israeli companies already selected.

Sanabil, the private investment arm of Saudi Arabia's PIF, has disclosed allocations to venture, growth, and buyout funds that have invested extensively in Israeli startups, in some cases with representatives sitting on the boards of directors of Israeli tech companies. Saudi-linked entities have strategically funneled money into tech and defense ventures through Emirati and Western intermediaries, including indirect equity stakes via international firms like SoftBank.

The Saudi regime is also moving toward formal normalization. In November 2025, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stated at the White House that he wanted to move toward normalizing relations with Israel "as soon as possible," while pledging to increase Saudi investments in the United States to $1 trillion. Even before formal normalization, economic channels—particularly trade, investment, and technical cooperation—have remained open.

The Dialectical Significance for Turkey and Pakistan

For readers in Turkey and Pakistan, the material facts are unambiguous. When their governments are pressured to support Saudi Arabia against Ansarallah, they are being asked to defend a regime that:

• Accepts $2 billion from the Saudi PIF into a fund controlled by the Trump family, which then invests that capital in Israeli companies.
• Indirectly finances Elbit Systems, the manufacturer of weapons used against Palestinians in Gaza.
• Receives Israeli military equipment for its own F-15 fleet while publicly claiming to champion the Palestinian cause.
• Is preparing to formally normalize with Israel while presenting itself as a leader of the Muslim world.

The sectarian narrative—that supporting Saudi Arabia means defending Sunni Islam against a "Shia" Ansarallah—collapses under the weight of this evidence. The Saudi autocracy is not a defender of Sunni Muslims; it is a class ally of Israeli and American imperialism, using sectarian rhetoric to conceal its integration into the very economic and military networks that oppress Muslims across the region.

The material interests of the Saudi ruling family are not with the Muslim masses in Turkey, Pakistan, or Yemen. They are with the Trump family, with Israeli defense contractors, and with the Western imperialist axis. This is the class character of the conflict that the sectarian narrative is designed to obscure.

The Failure of the Sectarian Mobilization: Turkey and Pakistan

The attempt to draw Turkey and Pakistan directly into the war against Ansarallah has backfired. In Turkey, socialists and the largest opposition party have protested against any involvement in the Yemen war, and public opinion has turned against the "Mecca Pact," which is seen as a Saudi-led maneuver to drag Turkey into a conflict that "has absolutely nothing to do with Pakistan". In Pakistan, plans to deploy troops under the Mecca Pact have sparked widespread anger, with critics outnumbering supporters.

Neither Turkey nor Pakistan can play a decisive role against Ansarallah without risking their prestige among Muslims worldwide and facing domestic backlash. The sectarian mobilization has failed precisely because the objective conditions—the widespread Muslim anger at Israel and the West, the exposure of Saudi-Israel business ties, and the popular sympathy for the Yemeni resistance—undermine the narrative that this is a Shia-Sunni conflict.

The Muslim Public Opinion Shift: The Subjective Reflection of Objective Conditions

Following the genocide in Gaza and the West's indirect role in it, Muslim public opinion across the region has decisively shifted. The Arab Opinion Index 2025 found that 44% of Arabs consider Israel the greatest threat to their security, with the United States at 21% and Iran at only 6%. Another survey found that 28% of respondents in 15 Arab countries identified Israel as the primary threat, followed by the United States, with Iran far behind. A majority of Arabs oppose normalization with Israel, and this opposition is driven by public anger at the Gaza genocide.

This is the subjective reflection of objective material conditions. The Muslim masses, regardless of sect, are increasingly united in their opposition to the imperialist axis (US-Israel-Saudi) and in their sympathy for the resistance, including Ansarallah. The sectarian narrative cannot overcome this material reality. The love and respect gained by Iran and the resistance forces in their confrontation with Israel and the US have transcended sectarian boundaries, uniting Sunnis and Shia in a common anti-imperialist sentiment.

 The Collapse of the Sectarian Tactic in the Occupied Regions

The three Yemeni regions—Najran, Jizan, and Asir—were annexed by Saudi Arabia in 1934 under the Treaty of Taif, which stipulated a temporary transfer that was never honored. The population of Najran is predominantly Ismaili Shia, and these regions have historically been part of Yemen. The Saudi regime has long feared Yemeni claims to these territories and has sought to prevent any Yemeni action to reclaim them.

The sectarian narrative collapses in this context. If Ansarallah were to move into these occupied regions, the population—largely Shia in Najran, and historically Yemeni in Asir and Jizan—would most likely welcome them. The attempt to pit Shia against Sunni from the start is rendered incoherent by the fact that the Shia population of these regions shares a national and historical identity with the Yemeni people, not with the Saudi ruling family. The sectarian tactic is exposed as an imperialist tool when the objective national and class interests of the population are considered.

  Saudi Arabia's Economic and Internal Contradictions

The Saudi autocracy faces deepening internal contradictions. Oil revenues, which still account for over 54% of the budget and 45% of GDP, have fallen sharply, with a budget deficit of $44 billion projected for 2026. The Saudi regime has reached a situation where it cannot market its major income source, and the risk of internal toppling is increasing. Southern Yemeni separatists have accused Saudi Arabia of airstrikes amid rising tensions, highlighting the fragility of the Saudi-led coalition.

These economic and political contradictions are the material basis for the potential collapse of the Saudi family state. The only prevention is the acceptance of the legitimate and lawful demands of Ansarallah: stopping the blockade, ending the sanctions, and stopping the armament of mercenaries in Yemen. Disregarding these demands is a historically suicidal act that could affect the collapse of other family states in the region and change the entire map of West Asia.

Conclusion: The Dialectics of a Multipolar Era

The dominant discussions on the Ansarallah war and the supposed Shia-Sunni conflict are not neutral analyses. They are tactical interventions by the imperialist axis to bring about the results they claim. However, the objective conditions—the multi-sectarian composition of Ansarallah, the failure of sectarian mobilization, the shift in Muslim public opinion, the humanitarian catastrophe of the blockade, the exposure of Saudi-Israel business ties, and the economic contradictions of the Saudi regime—all point in the opposite direction.

In the era of digital technology and the multipolar world, the Western media's monopoly on narrative is eroding. People are following alternative perspectives and disseminating facts on the ground. The sectarian tactic is not only wishful thinking but a desperate attempt to realize a result that the material conditions increasingly render impossible. The unity of the Muslim masses in subjective feeling, driven by the objective reality of imperialist aggression, is a historical turning point that the imperialist axis cannot reverse through propaganda alone. The just war of the Yemeni anti-imperialist forces is a material force that is reshaping the region and exposing the contradictions of the old order.

The synthesis is clear: the Saudi autocracy's material alliance with Israeli and American imperialism contradicts its ideological claim to defend Sunni Islam. The sectarian narrative is exposed as a class weapon. The Muslim masses, regardless of sect, are increasingly united against the imperialist axis. This unity is the objective result of the material conditions—and no amount of propaganda can reverse it.

The wishful thinking of the West is not that a Shia-Sunni war will happen. The wishful thinking is that the Muslim masses will forget that their real enemy is not each other, but the imperialist axis and its rentier allies. That wish is not a prediction. It is a tactic. And it is failing.

Erdogan A
October 16, 2026

Note on Sources

This study draws on publicly available data from UN humanitarian agencies, the Arab Opinion Index, international financial institutions, independent conflict monitors, and reputable news agencies. DeepSeek was used only as an auxiliary research tool to compile and cross-reference these materials. All factual claims were checked against the original public documents where possible. Western sources are used critically and only where they do not contradict the objective data supplied by other sources. The analytical framework is Marxist-Leninist, applying dialectical materialism to the class and imperialist dynamics of the conflict.