War on Taiwan?
Last ten days, I have watched and read a couple dozen "experts" on the possibility and outcome of the war between China and Taiwan. This includes the "experts" from South East Asia most of whom are NED supported "experts". While the US and Western "experts" (other than Neo-Cons) try to approach objectively but with a spin due to their fantasies and wishful thinking, SEA "experts" are fully inline with the delusional approach of Neo-Cons.
Most of them treat it, or give the impression that Taiwan is a large country with a large military and military means to defend itself.Let's first keep in mind that ;
Taiwan is approximately 35,980 sq km (including the unoccupied islands)
Cuba is 110,860 sq km, three times larger than Taiwan
Donbass region of Ukraine is approximately 53,201 sq km, 1,5 times larger than Taiwan. Moldova is similar size with Taiwan. Taiwan over all is double the size of the City of Beijing.
Although most "experts" admit that during the first days of a possible war, China could destroy all the air force and navy of Taiwan, they spin it and somehow come to the conclusion that it would be a "Chinese defeat" because the US will be involved soon enough.
Most points out that Japan will not participate in the war unless China attacks in its structures "other than the US bases".
One of their fantasy and wishful thinking is that Russia will not participate in the war in case Japan participates in war on the side of the US, and Russia is not strong enough, or even has no military presence to counter Japan. That claim is only wishful thinking that does not reflect the realities. Russia has military basis only a couple miles away from Japan in Kuril Islands. Russia also have numerous Naval Military base In its Sakhalin Island, Kamchatka, Kaharovsk, Primimorsky regions facing the Sea of Japan and Sea of Okhotsk surrounding Japan. Let's add the fact that Japan and Russia has never signed a peace. ( The state of war between the Soviet Union and Japan technically existed until 1956, when it was ended by the Soviet–Japanese Joint Declaration of 1956. A formal peace treaty still has not been signed.) That translates in to the fact they are technically still at war and have disputes on islands. That means the issue of Taiwan will also be an issue of Japan and the US will be fighting over Japan too.
It may be because they do not want to scare their proxy government in South Korea, they try to avoid the North-South question and their inevitable involvement in the war since the US has military bases in South Korea not too far from China. The fact that any war against China will trigger the war in Korean Peninsula, not in later days but at the initial stages of war.
Leaving aside all the fabricated cheap, "stories" directed to the dumb and dumber on North Korea and its military power, the fact that most objective experts even from the Liberal West come to a common conclusion that South Korea is no match militarily against North Korea despite the existence of US military base.
Some avoid the question of South Korea for the fact that the issue of Taiwan will inevitably be an issue of South Korea, others claim that South Korea can beat North with the help of US, meaning that the US will not have to fight for Taiwan only but also for South Korea.
Some even claimed that Vietnam is and will be allied with the US.
The facts against the fantasies and wishful thinking of the Neo-Con and other Western "experts", is that a war for Taiwan will not be a war by itself but will drag Japan and South Korea in it. That inevitability will bring about another; the participation of Russia and North Korea in the war on the side of China.
The subjective denial of the "existential strong alliance" between China-Russia and North Korea" slowly but surely creeping even in the assessments of the western experts but they spin and try to conceal it with their fantasy and wishful thinking.
Some of the 'experts" who try to be objective, although vaguely, admits that the US will not and cannot directly and affectively participate in such a war from thousands of miles away.
Translating what they all mean is that the US will and can only carry out proxy wars at the expense of the local military and its population. That may even include Philippines. The US will not directly participate in such a war but as always, desert them when it fits it’s interests.
This is very much in line with our early 2022 analysis and the latest articles on Taiwan, on the possibility of nuclear war, on Myanmar...
The issue of Taiwan is being used by the US to corner and force China to give concessions, subjugate China to its economic-political demands. However, with the declining hegemony of US militarily is obvious to all except those living in a fantasy land, as their yesterday's statement indicates China will not bow down to the old "carrot and stick" tactics of the USA.
Neo-Cons and the NED leftists (even some hiding behind Marxist mask) are in denial of the fact that the unipolar world is becoming a thing of the past. Their wishful thinking forces them to deny the fact of "Russia-China-North Korea alliance" on the face of the US-West threats.
As I have noted previously, without an exceptional situation arising, Taiwan is not a serious issue for China as much as the issue of Myanmar on the horizon.
Addition
Tumen River
In close relation to the previous commentary on Taiwan issue, although it is not confirmed yet, it is important to add the following development.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had a two day visit to China. The speculation on the visit includes the full access of China to the Sea of Japan through Tumen River. (They already have a basic agreement for the access) Russia and the DPRK sharing a border on the river constrains Chinese access to the sea. The joint statement released reads;
“Both parties will engage in constructive dialogue with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea regarding the navigation of Chinese vessels through the lower Tumen River to the sea.”
Tumen or Duman River flows in northeast Asia, on the border between China and North Korea in its upper reaches, and between North Korea and Russia in its last 17 kilometers before entering the Sea of Japan.
Western analyzers, with the same wishful thinking claim that "North Korea likely isn’t eager to help China make better use of the Tumen River, both because of the significant expense of dredging the riverbed".
And similarly the mouth piece of CIA in South East Asia specific, "Radio Free Asia" down plays the development by saying that " it would require extensive dredging and other infrastructure development” to make the Tumen into a navigable river."
Westerners have so many "stories" even Hollywood like fake videos about Tumen River and North Korea, one of which is the "penetration of US Seal Team in to North Korea. From where and how is questionable- from Russia? From China? Let them live in their fantasy land and produce articles and movies addressing the dumb and dumber.
Some so called experts, with their wishful thinking, among other absurdities, they say The low vertical clearance of the Korea-Russia Friendship Bridge, built in the 1950s and spans the river, also means that larger vessels cannot pass through".
The agreement will not only benefit China economically but militarily.
Despite all the downplaying the Tumen River question;
1-) North Korea already successfully completed about 40 kilometers of Tumen River embankment construction for flood prevention.
2-) China already has been clearing and developing the Tumen River within its borders. In 2016, China released 800,000 salmon seedlings into Tumen river in order to expand the regional fishing industry and meet the increasing demand for sea products
3-) Removing the existing bridge and replacing with a new one that gives full access for navigation is not a challenge for China that has an industrial and skill capacity to build bridges in a couple days.
4) China and North Korea have a mutual aid and co-operation treaty, signed in 1961 it is currently the only defense treaty either country has with any nation other than possibly with Russia.
5) China is already investing in the construction and development of North Korean Ports. Russia already has agreements to use the North Korean Ports.
The western fantasy and wishful thinking that China and Russia has so many conflicting issues and never join in an alliance, and thus the practice of pitting them against each other did not reflect the reality. Similarly, the wishful thinking that "Moscow and Beijing distrust the Kim regime and, with pressing concerns elsewhere, are loath to see DPRK behaviour destabilize the Korean Peninsula" does not reflect the current realities. Both Russia (first) and China (next) has waken up from their illusion about the West and dropped their appeasement policies. That's why their interests as far as security is concerned has become a common one which will facilitate mutual agreements on such concerned issues.
China's access to Sea of Japan serves both to the interests of Russia and North Korea- for North Korea both economically and militarily.
Erdogan A
May 24, 2024
Thailand
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