Kursk as a killing field in slow motion.

On the first days of Ukraine's Kursk incursion I had commented that " When the mice swarm in to the field of cats and believe they have control over the field, their inevitable  fate is not debatable. 

Ukraine's incursion into Kursk region and the exaggerated commentaries show how pathetic and subjective the  journalism have become. 

Having a "presence" in a region does not mean having "control " over the region but only at the "pockets" of the region where one is present. And that "presence" does not guarantee the control of that "pocket " permanently but temporarily till it becomes the hunting ground for the  "hunters " .

According to the reliable news Russia does not even send its mechanized military to the region but plans to deal with special forces , especially with Chechen units. 

Yes, the PR worked but a costly PR incursion which inevitably will end with disaster and annihilation"

As of today, nothing has changed. All the hype, excitement and fantasies reinforced with the Mainstream Media regarding Ukraine's incursion in Kursk will be a disappointment and another wakeup call sooner or later. 

The delusion that we still live in 1990s, and denying the decisive changes in the world balance of powers has not been an easy to swallow reality for the most bourgeois liberals and for the fake socialists. Russia's turning into a super military and economic world power has largely been the consequence of arrogant, ignorant, bellicose aggressive policy of the Neo-Cons who still live in a fantasy world. 

Looking at the war map in Eastern Ukraine, to the locations of the reinforced, fortified defense lines since 2014, and what is left of them, can give a better idea to an objective analyzer what the situation is and the close future will look like.  Russia is waging battles against Ukraine who are dug into fortified defense lines. Ukraine military is not out in the open. That is why, looking at the developments on the map shows that the tactics of Russians, if not all, in most cases have been dodging the fortified defense lines rather than head on offenses. It has been the tactic of a continues encirclements from small to larger ones. This tactic of encircling, cutting the supply lines force the Ukrainian military personal and machines to come out of their dug-in defense lines (fortifications)  either to withdraw or to reinforce the other fronts. That is when Russians are attacking heavily and aggressively decimating them. It is a war of attrition not a war of acquiring territories which the attrition inevitably bring about the acquirement of territories as an end result. 

In Kursk, Ukrainians are out in the open with no dug-in fortified defense lines. In a way, the incursion is a self-made trap surrounded by the enemy from three sides. Let's not forget that this is the first time Russian land is being occupied since WW2. Despite the demand  and expectations of average and some hardliner Russians we do not see an all out offense in Kursk by the Russian military. 

Considering the large contingency reserves Russians have in the north (kept for incase of a direct war with NATO) one expect that they would be activated for the Kursk incursion and "occupation."

Question is why would Russia force 10,000 plus Ukrainian military personnel  out of Kursk and have them to be relocated to Donbass in where Russia is moving faster to the "last fortified defense lines" of Ukraine.? The longer they keep them there in Kursk, the faster they could move in Donbass region.  

Ukraine has no other fortified defense lines as strong as the ones built in Donbass region since 2014. The collapse of Ukrainian forces will be quicker after the collapse of the final defense lines. That is why, with the incursion into Kursk, Ukraine set itself up to a trap not only in Kursk region but in entire East front. Incursion has become a self-prepared trap by a "hunt" for the "hunter."

Russia will consolidate the boundaries of the incursion and with the use of air force and special forces hunt them and killed them slowly but surely. There is no reason for the Russians to forced them out of Kursk in one big shot. Contrary, there are so many reasons to keep them there with their fantasies and false hopes. Based on the news, even from the West, Ukraine has lost more machines and men in Kursk than they have lost in Donbass during the same period. 

It is said that Ukraine is redeploying its forces from Kharkov and from the regions of west of Dnieper region to Kursk. I believe that is not worrying Russians but making them happier since Ukrainians will all be out in the open for the redeployment for the Russians to hunt. If and when they reach to Kursk, it will not change anything but increase the number of the "hunts" for the "hunter". It always will play in to the hands of Russians.

That is why it seems that Kursk will be the largest single killing field for the Ukrainians. If they do not sober up from their illusions and withdraw, they will be hunted in slow motion in Kursk while their defense lines collapse in Donbass. A self-prepared killing field for themselves as hunts for the hunters.

Assessments based on the concrete conditions and situation in Ukraine specific and of world in general do not and will not change based on the  western propaganda and sporadic events. It is based on the "balance of powers" in Ukraine specific specific and world in general. Words and propaganda, nothing can change the current balance of powers; economy, politics and military power do. Neither Ukraine nor US-West have any of those power to change the current situation.

If the West-NATO had the power and guts they would have already attack and occupy (through its proxies or directly)  Kaliningrad which has no land connection with Russia.  I seriously doubt that they could even dare to have any action against little Kaliningrad in where Russia has nuclear missiles ready to activate. If the Western elites and its bureaucracy believe that in such a case US will be involving in a nuclear war, they are fatally mistaken. US will be the first one deserting them in such a case. In the era of multi-polar world order, they prefer proxy wars waged on their behalf without any real harm to themselves. "Benefits" should outweigh the "cost" for them to get involved directly. Under current conditions, in such a case, there is no benefit but heavy cost; costs overweigh the benefits. 

Erdogan A

August , 2024
Vietnam