Will the Kurds in Iraq and Syria fall in to a possible trap by the US-West?
To start with, I apologize for
the late response to the questions in identical context. I have been working in
a secluded location on the last two books I consider which are crucially
important.
I do not have and cannot have a
definite answer to this question. Response to this question has -and depends on- so many variables due to the fact that;
1-) Balance of powers in world
scale has drastically changed in the last three years and continuing to change
in an escalating and decisive way.
2-) With these changes,
everything we know or we thought we knew about the world and world powers are
shattering , myths, manipulated perspectives about them are collapsing one
after the other.
3-) Not only geopolitical
alliances but economic, military, and strategic alliances are changing rapidly
– mostly in one direction.
Especially when it comes to such serious questions, part-particular and whole-general cannot be studied isolated from each other. In almost all cases development in a given particular depends on the developments in general-world.
As the Neo-Cons shaped the minds
and perspectives of most of the world population since 1990s, most people are
still in denial of the decisive changes
happened in our world. Neo-Cons are living in a fantasy land with delusions that
we still live in the 1990s during which they had the ultimate economic and
military power and with impunity they set the rules fitting their objectives at
any given time and place and forced upon
others. Manipulated by them for decades, people make analysis deriving from the
fantasies rather then the objective realities. At best, the analysis are
mixtures of subjectivity influenced heavily by the conditions of 1990s or based on “wishful thinking”.
The fantasy of “Dismantling
and collapsing Russia” plan of Neocons which publicly published in
2019, was shattered first in Georgia, Armenia and last but not least in Ukraine
which probably will bring about the end of Ukraine as we know it. In most
likely case, Neo-Cons will find a face saving exit from Ukraine war and dump
the “problem” they created on to EU countries to deal with - a historical and
typical “cut and run” tactic of the Neo-Cons .
Now we are facing another yet
more dangerous fantasy of the Neo-Cons
and to some degree, the spoiled child of Finance Capital; Israel.
The media created myth of
Israel’s military power had been shattered during and after the 2006 Israeli
Lebanon war. Israel, who (according to the statistics) was supposed to be the 5th
best military in the world was literally defeated by Hezbollah. Professor
Norman Finkelstein who comes from a Jewish family deeply impacted by the
Holocaust, bluntly said that the Israeli Military power is a myth. It is
technologically powerful but the war is won on the ground, and that is where the
Israel lacks any power what so ever. His assessment has been confirmed numerous
times.
Can assassinations of the leaders
remotely bring about a positive end result ?
Thinking and making assessments
based on the culture, norms and understandings of their own while totally
disregarding same for the others has been the worse possible mistake, even
extending to those who claim to be Marxist Leninists. Assassinations of the
leaders have been carried out with the belief that will bring about the
destruction and elimination of “ideals”
and movements. This tactic has been tried and failed since the colonial era. If not all, most assessments about Asia, Middle
East and Africa in general are made with the “cultural outlook “ of the West
without any actual knowledge or consideration of the cultures of the countries
in the regions. It is the mentality and perspective of the colonialists applied
to the colonies with the illusion that
they will have the same perspective about life in general and sacrificing ones
life for a cause in particular. They blind themselves to thousands of examples
in history where the people of ex-colonies did not even blink on the
face of militarily powerful colonial forces and sacrificed themselves for the
cause- whatever that may be, in most cases , the cause of independence. When
one combines fundamentalist religious beliefs to the “cause”, assassinations
and mass murders proven to be fruitless. On the contrary, such practices backfires
and sharpens the hate and revenge motivations among the people. This tactic may well
work against the West and Western
cultured people, but it will never work against the ex-colonial, oppressed, exploited,
and subjugated people especially when the balance of powers change in their
favor. They will take revenge and as history has shown, they will take revenge
harsh, without any pity.
The balance of power in the
Middle East
The self acclaimed “super power”
Israel after a year of mass murders, assassinations, still could not eliminate Hamas in small Gaza
region. Despite all the cheap propaganda, they have lost quite a number of
soldiers in Gaza, and as the news leak, Israeli soldiers rejecting to fight and
deserting when the opportunity arises.
Israel’s repeated attempt against Hezbollah is becoming disastrous with the
loss of hundreds of Israeli soldiers and military machines in Southern Lebanon.
Israel have never disclosed the actual number of its loss and will not do so. They
use the same tactic of US (or vice a
versa) in which most dead or heavily
wounded is not reported as “dead” but as hospitalized. When the “wounded” dies
in the hospital , it is not added to the number of “loss” in the battle.
As the war against Hezbollah
proven during 2016, Israel has no military capability to beat them since the
war can only be won on the ground with the foot soldiers. Even the Jewish military
experts confess that Israel with its conscripted army is no match to Hezbollah’s battle hardened
professional army on the ground. It is a
hopeless war for Israel which can easily bring about its economic and military
destruction, in addition to its already ruined political reputation and its
self-created myths. What is Israel’s option?
War with Iran to drag the US
into a regional war.
The only option remains for Israel is to drag US to a regional war
through provoking Iran to an all out assault on Israel. However, despite all
their influence on the US government, it seems that the division between the
factions within the US government and with its institutions, especially within
pentagon is growing. Almost all the ex-CIA and ex-military experts in addition
to the well known academicians join in
the argument that the US cannot afford a war against Iran . That would be a disastrous
endeavor for the US both economically and militarily leaving aside the growing political
isolation of US world wide. That unwillingness can easily be seen from the
statements made by the government officials summarizes the policy as “supporting
Israel’s defense” but not ever mentioning “directly and actively joining “ to
its war against Iran. There are two main reasons for that hesitation and
calculation;
1-) US military power in
Middle East is weak and spread around and surrounded by hostile countries
and groups. In addition, US military bases and facilities are all located at a
vulnerable distance from Iran’s destructive missile reach. Iran will not attack
the US bases is a fantasy derived from the 1990s delusions and only a wishful
thinking of those who argue so.
2-) As we have forecasted three
years ago, the unipolar world has become a part of past history. Neither Russia nor China will
remain silent to any serious attack against Iran. They will support Iran to
the end against West and US whose military arsenal is critically depleted and
economically they are not in the
position to replenish their military power in a short period of time. Russia’s military industry alone produces more
in one year than the entire US and West combined. If we consider the military
production of China and North Korea, West and the US will need years to come back
to be a serious challenge to the new block of alliances. We are not even
mentioning the consequences of such an action in Philippines with large Muslim
population with its own army, where the Philippines
army can not step in without permission , Singapore, Indonesia, and other Muslim
countries. These countries, in addition to some Christian and Buddhist
countries already banned the Israelis and those visited Israel from entering in.
So, it is not only Russia, China, and Korea, but countless countries will take
direct or indirect actions against any serious attack to Iran.
People always bring the “nuclear
war” question to forefront. Without denying the unintentional possibility of
such war, those days will remain to be a part of history . As I argued on an article;
“That is a fact
that just the existence of nuclear bombs by itself makes a nuclear war
possible. However, in addition to the fact that the use of
nuclear bombs do not coincide with the interests of the ruling elites
-either global or local- the technological developments in military
warfare gradually making its use an obsolete one.
It seems that,
especially in a multipolar world, the Nuclear Bomb lost its
significance as the weapon for winning a war.
With the
technological ..development, the need for the use of nuclear weapons
is diminishing. This new technological war machines are also extremely
destructive but can be localized and their extent is controllable.
For these
reasons I do not see any likelihood of nuclear world war.” On
the likelihood of a Nuclear war
The reality is Russia, China, US,
North Korea has bombs attached to hypersonic missiles with a destructive affect
of covering 2miles radius . The last one
I know of is the (glide bomb- if I am not mistaken) bomb Russia used in Volchansk after setting a trap for the Ukrainians and literally
obliterating every one and everything within 2 mile radius.
So, the use of nuclear bomb (with the possible exception of
Israel) is a highly unlikely scenario.
The fact is that, in the event of Israel’s use of nuclear bomb will indisputably
bring about its total destruction while Iran will stand still regardless of the
damages it will face with.
Israel's most talked about and
expected latest attack to Iran already may have given the indication that
Israel is aware of these facts and finally waking up from its supremacist illusions and looking for a way out of this impasse
and stop the escalation of escalation practices.
That probably is due to a warning from
the Finance Capital to its spoiled child Israel. What is the alternative?
Proxy wars through the groups
to distract the attention and directions
As always, proxy wars have been
the best option for the US and the Brits. Divide; have them fight against each
other, exploit the situation to extract the outmost benefit.
Lately gossips are floating
around; some as leaked information, others mostly from the US ex-Cia and
Military experts.
It seems that US is very much annoyed with
Turkiye and it’s possible alliance with Iran
against Israel. The floating arguments is about the possibility of US and
Israel instigating the Kurds in Iraq and Syria against Turkiye in order to
prevent an Iran- Turkiye direct or indirect alliance against Israel. Here too we can
easily see the fantasy of the Neo-Cons who still live in the 1990s. Turkiye is
not the Turkiye of 1990s anymore. Turkiye has gone through its monopolization,
capital exporting phase and in the development of its offensive military
industry. In addition, Turkiye is still an occupying force in Syria. In its combine definition of “imperialism” –
economically , militarily and policy wise- Turkiye is a growing imperialist country. That is why, instigating
Kurds against Turkiye will be an action welcomed by the imperialist-fascist
government of Turkiye as an opportunity and justification to start a war
in northern Iraq and Syria. In most likely case, that war will be welcomed by
one or both Iraq and Syria, although not
officially but opportunistically.
It seems that the Neo-Cons,
without getting rid off their delusions and stepping in to the real world and
the concrete realities of it, will always
find themselves cornered. Each plot they set up with wishful thinking will
backfire and come back to bite themselves.
Middle east and countries of the
region at a period of de-facto unity. A unity with increasing confidence and courage
deriving from the new world order, multipolar world order. For that reason
alone, any action by any group acting for the interests of Israel, US-West will
probably be crashed not only by their own governments but by the growing
imperialist, opportunist countries of the region.
What will be stand of Kurds
and their leaders ?
Honestly, being away from the
country, I have no clue of the latest developments and commentaries in that
regard. There were few objective Marxist Leninists who were not afraid of
articulating their opinions regarding the Kurdish leadership and their stands. We
have lost them in recent years. Although they had their differences in some
issues, Garbis Altinoglu was the only
one I could trust and rely on the political
aspect of related questions, Ibrahim Okcuoglu was the one I could trust and
rely on the economic aspects of the questions. Sadly enough, Bundism (Ethnic nationalism
behind the mask of socialism) is largely dominant in Turkiye. Liberalism, the
worse kind of opportunism, predominates the pens of so called ML writers. The
attitude is either “do not touch to that
subject” we may alienate some people, as if we do not talk about the question
the question will disappear by itself, or “talk about the subject in a
favorable way so that we do not alienate anyone “ approach. That is why it is
almost impossible to get a clear “current idea” on the thoughts and stands of
the Kurdish leaders other than from their own mostly vague , agitation and propaganda
context statements.
Based on the old perspectives and
approaches of the leadership, it would be a disaster waiting to happen. In one
of my articles related to the Kurdish leadership, titled “Those who do not
learn from history; The practice of embracing those who created the
"Ghost" as "saviors"”, I had noted ;
Those who cannot learn from
history cannot save themselves from the fatal mistake of embracing those who
created the “ghost” as “saviors”.
The practice
of creating a “ghost” and creating oneself, that is, a “savior” against
the “ghost” in order to silence, scare, deceive, and mentally and
physically enslave people has been a tactic that imperialism and the
ruling classes have used throughout history. This tactic continues today in
different but more experienced, more widespread, and masked forms, both in
general and in particular, and can even succeed in finding “alliances” and
“partners” from social democrats and even the left. This created “ghost”
can be “concrete and real” (for example DAESH created by the CIA and
MOSSAD, etc.), as it is in some cases today, or it can be “abstract and
false” (for example Communism) that has continued from the past to the
present (concrete and real for them but for the people). Depending on each
condition, situation and country, the determining factor is who the
"ghost" is and most importantly, who "created" it,
and who declared themselves as "saviors".
This was related to the US trick
to co-opt and or manipulate the Kurdish leftists by using its own creation,
ISIS to gain sympathy and cooperation of the Kurds with their insidious games
of unleashing ISIS on Kurds and then protecting the Kurds from the ISIS.
Unlike the common misconception,
the PKK is not and has never been a Marxist Leninist organisation. I was an
active Marxist Leninist way before its initiation as a nationalist organisation,
so I am very familiar with its development and its leader cadres political
views. As I have noted in one of the old articles;
Stressing the
fact and clarifying the deceitful, false claims disseminated in a rewritten
history by the Bourgeois Nationalists in English and Spanish on internet
claiming that Mr. Apo was one of the founder of THKP/C ;
He was NOT the
founder or the leader of any Marxist Leninist movement nor was he a
member of any - rejected by all as nationalist. He was a
Bourgeois Nationalist from the get-go, paying lip service to Marxism Leninism,
which was dominant then, for the sake of opportunism.” APO, the Leader of PKK, in his own words.
There is no need to go back to
old commentaries of the leadership cadres, reading their prior statements and
stands on the Syrian issue clearly reflects their pro-US , Pro-western stand
with their nationalist-Bookchinist mixed,
bourgeois liberal characteristics. The danger lies here. If they still
are living in the same Neo-Cons’ fantasy
land and are in denial of the new, multipolar world order, they may well take
action as a proxy and drag the Kurdish people in to disaster.
I simply have no concrete
information if any changes have occurred during last three years in their
political and strategic alliance views. I follow the writings of a very limited
writers from Turkiye for the most is totally opportunist and Bundist to get a
clear idea on anything.
One thing I am sure is that the
ruling class of Turkiye will not pass an opportunity like that and welcome such
a proxy provocation and attempt against them. Neo-Cons will once again be
shooting themselves from the foot, worse, risking the loss of Middle East
entirely for a long time to come. They will cut and run at one point with heavy
losses if they remain, they will cause the destruction of the Kurdish regions
and of Kurdish people.
Erdogan A
October 27, 2024
Laos
.jpg)
No comments