Shock, despair and panic waves in Europe and East Asia; Statements made by US officials.
In addition to shock, despair and panic, there is another side of the development; that is “hope”. The “hope” side of the development is related to the possibility of a “peace agreement” in Ukraine. Is it possible? The short answer is NO. The only peace agreement could only be a follow up, end result and part of the “capitulation treaty” of Ukraine-Europe, based on the realities on the ground at the signing of treaty. In other words, one cannot really speak of a “peace agreement” by itself but a part of a “capitulation treaty”. I will speak about this in more details in my conclusion after stating my thoughts on the developments and the cause of them not only in specific but in relation to the world in general. Specific is an inseparable part of general and cannot be grasped and explained without considering this direct connection.
The first weeks of the new US
administration so far has been remarkable with their rhetoric and actions;
some were expected others not. Starting
with the “abolishment” of USAID-NED and thus indirectly other connected organizations,
followed by the statement about “unipolar world is being an “anomaly”, and the
statements made in Munich and various TV interviews in relation to Ukraine and
NATO created shock waves around the world. It created panic in the countries where
they are pro US and rely on the US for their “security”, and in countries where
the so called “champion of democracy” forces, in one case, the “guerillas” on USAID-NED
payroll- all fighting anti-American governments. The panic in South East Asia
started with the news that USAID is being abolished, reading some commentaries
of the proxy media in the region, it is not difficult to see that this panic
elevated to despair after the latest statements of US officials on Ukraine.
South Korea and Japan mainstream media seem to be considering these
developments not worthy of mentioning and/or broadcasting the speeches. It
seems they are still in shock and despair.
How serious really is this, appearing to be a “policy” change of
US ? What forced them to make such tactical
changes in their policy? Is it a simple tactic or the consequences of decades
long warmongering and war waging practice
that drained and weakened their war machine and bringing their economy down into a severe crises? An
economic crises that will delay restoring their economy on a war footing
against those who already are surpassing US in economic field and preparing
their economy in technological war footing in fast phase.
Image-damage control
The question of USAID-NED
Based on the early developments
in US, on February 4, I posted a comment and I asked the question “what is
really going on within the US elite classes, among the non-elected - elected bureaucrats,
and to the "independent" organisations such as AID, NED, and thus, to
the NGOs, their direct and indirect (puppet ) medias ?
Reading the news , articles, and
NGO blogs throughout South East Asia, it is impossible not to sense a state of
panic among them. If they are in panic,
it is most likely that all the NGOs, extension media, and other organisations
supporting the "foot soldiers" of , and financed by AID-NED world
wide are in some kind of panic.
Is US government really shutting
down the USAID (and NED), do they really have the power to do so ? Or is it a
shuffling of state structure ?A practical adventure to bring every decisive and
costly foreign (and domestic) institution and organisations under their direct
control? These organizations and institutions had and still have leading role
for , interventions, government changes, death squads, civil wars, ethnic
conflicts etc., all over the world. This fact is not a secret anymore for even
an average person.
Is it just an event of
"Trump is just being Trump"? or Is it an act of "image-damage
control" of an exposed, declining empire? Or is it really a preemptive
step towards a policy change? Is there a growing dissatisfaction and conflict
of interests among the ruling classes, different strata and different
industries?
Considering the decline in
geopolitical, economic, and military dominance of the US, so many questions
come to mind. it is not an insignificant
endeavor regardless of how serious or not that attempt will be, it is an
Interesting development to follow.
Although it is too early to analyze
and determine exactly, the manifestation of the official talks (not the typical
rhetoric side by side with it) on the questions of Ukraine, Israel, Iran,
Russia even China is that the new government (more like; whichever class-strata
and/or industry behind it) is on the
path of waking up from the illusions and coming down to the earth from
the outer-fantasy land.
What is for sure is that, it appears to be a serious attempt of declining empire for the “image-damage
control”. The action against USAID (NED and others) cannot be to
eliminate their role but to bring every decisive and costly foreign (and
domestic) “autonomous” institution and organisations under their direct control.
As I have noted in one of the articles, they will focus more on their “backyards”
for their “sphere of influence” to consolidate.
US House Foreign Affairs
Committee Hearing On 'The USAID Betrayal’ is informative to watch or read. If we leave
aside the habitual “rhetoric” of blaming everything on to the “radical leftists”
and calling the “democrat party” as “radical left”, it is a revealing account
of USAID and its practice in the countries of the world. Especially testimony
of Andrew Natsios, ex administrator who
defends USAID is the most revealing one.
He says that
“ 2/3rd of the USAID members are foreigners…many of them go on to be the head of state...the first woman head of state in Costa Rica was a member of AID...first woman vice president of El Salvador was a member of AID…First lady of Peru was an AID member…all of them devoted to the United States…we are a recruitment ground for leaders in the developing world who are pro-American..”
While he is telling these proudly, due to his “American exceptionalism” he is not even aware of the fact that he is confessing the US involvement in the internal affairs of other countries world wide.US, through USAID, NED and NGOs with
thousands of local members in those countries interfere in domestic policies of
those countries. While US itself has The Foreign
Agents Registration Act (“FARA”) which imposes disclosure requirements and
other legal obligations on any individual or entity that becomes an “agent of a
foreign principal” (as we have witnessed numerous times including American journalists
working for RT was arrested based on this law) , it vehemently opposes to the “transparency
laws” enacted by other countries against the NGOs – all over South East Asia,
Armenia, Georgia etc. It is the American exceptionalism and double standard
which is translated to : “I can do it but you cannot”. This attitude damaged
the image of US in so many countries who could not take a decisive stand
against it during the unipolar world order, but gradually having courage to
take precautions and going against it with transparency laws in the new
multi-polar world order.
Will this be the end of interference? I seriously doubt
it. It will continue in different form and shape under direct control of CIA or
State Department. I believe it is the
process of concentration and centralization of power in the US with the
new administration.
Unipolar world vs Multipolar
world
The image-damage control is
followed by a shocking speech of Secretary of State Rubio’s recent interview
with the admittance of the new multipolar world order. He
said;
“So it’s not
normal for the world to simply have a unipolar power. That was not — that
was an anomaly. It was a product of the end of the Cold War, but eventually you
were going to reach back to a point where you had a multipolar world,
multi-great powers in different parts of the planet. We face that now with
China and to some extent Russia.”
Of course this admittance and seeing
unipolarity as a historical accident and an anomaly which leaves no room for
the justification of a strategy of primacy and hegemony does not mean and
cannot be the declaration of a new foreign policy that will not seek to restore
the “unipolar world order” which he calls “anomaly”.
However, it definitely means
that their feet started touching the ground, on the new realities of the new
world order.
Peace initiative and NATO
The speech of US defence
secretary Pete Hegseth at the end of a Nato defence ministers meeting in
Brussels, although some of the same rhetorics inserted in, has another important context that reveals
the direction from fantasy world to realities of the current, concrete
world. However, they are still under the
influence of the delusion that America is powerful and dictates its will to
anyone. He states;
“President Trump
gave me a clear mission: achieve peace through strength, as well as put
America first.”
“Peace through strength” implies
the presentation and convincing of its
overwhelming power to other party, and dictation of its own will for the
"peace" to other. For one, US
has no military power to defeat Russia in a conventional war. According to the
military expert of US, it does not even have the military power to defeat Iran in
such a war under the conditions of multipolar world. This is not even considering
the fact that US military, while trying to “extend Russia” and “contain China”
extended itself very thin with military presence in so many parts of the world
leaving not enough power to wage a war against any country that is militarily powerful.
Thus, the “peace through strength” is a rhetoric that has no ground and Russia
is very well aware of this fact.
It was the US who forced the
Ukraine war upon Russia and thus played an important role in Russia’s
transforming into the most powerful and experienced military in the world.
It was the US who,
through economic sanctions, forced Russia to transform its industry and economy
to be self sufficient and to create an
iron-clad alliance with China.
That is why, as I have noted in
my numerous articles, the US has no leverage, military or economic, over
Russia to dictate any peace deal.
Already, if one looks at the
entirety of the speeches rather than just some rhetoric, one can easily confirm
the fact that US has no leverage and they are aware of that fact. US is
trying to sit at the table by publicly admitting the realities and which
admissions of realities would make Russia sit at the table to discuss –
not to negotiate a peace deal. On this issue, Seth’s
speech indicates that now they know what the minimum requirements of Russia
for a peace talk.
“a diplomatic,
peaceful end to this war as quickly as possible in a manner that creates
enduring and durable peace.”
I can look, as
our team has, of what's realistic likely on an outcome. I think realism is
an important part of the conversation that hasn't existed enough inside
conversations amongst friends. But simply pointing out realism, like the
borders won't be rolled back to what everybody would like them to be in 2014,
is not a concession to Vladimir Putin. It's a recognition of the hard power
realities on the ground.
it's just a
cheap political point to say, "Oh, we've left all the negotiating cards
off the table by recognizing some realities that exist on the ground."
President Zelensky understands the realities on the ground, President Putin
understands the realities on the ground, and President Trump as a deal maker,
as a negotiator, understands those dynamics as well.
This is not the words of someone searching
for “peace with strength” but someone looking for a way to initiate the process
of talks with Russia by admitting the realities and by understanding what the
road-block for any discussions will be – I am not even talking about “negotiations”
or “peace talk” which is far away and most likely will never happen.
Considering the speeches on NATO
and the statement that the US soldiers will never be in Ukraine, it seems that
US is leaving the issue of Ukraine to the EU, specifically to British, German,
and French to solve. European leaders are all in a state of shock. Especially with
the statement that the US soldiers will be withdrawn from Europe, they are now
in despair but trying to cover it with “high sounding rhetoric” about their own
power and capability to deal with the problems.
Any intelligent man knows or can
easily find out by simple research that European countries as far as military
power is concerned is literally a joke except Poland as compared to
them. Paraphrasing how one British
expert said; “You can put all the British army in a soccer stadium, you will
still have so many seats remaining”. Even way before Russia strengthen its
military industry, amassed over a million military personal and came up with
Oreshnik missile, in our assessments in 2022 we have stated that Ukraine has no
chance of winning a war against Russia even with the participation of entire
European military. Currently, with EU depleted most of its military arsenal by “aiding”
Ukraine, with their people against wars, have no chance at all against Russia.
British still lives in the
fantasy of world of “Great Britain empire” years. An empire built, got rich off
the backs of its colonies and with the military personal of its colonies,
mainly made up of Indians. It is not
only militarily but politically Britain now is an irrelevant country. That
fact is hard to swallow for them that’s why with their rhetoric and destructive
diplomacies, self-destructive policies, they strive to show that they are
still relevant. They will keep on living in fantasy till the cold slap of
realities hit them.
France, like some of its
neighbors, is another one who got rich and remained so by plundering the resources of its colonies in Afrika,
living in fantasy land despite the fact that they are being kicked out of
Africa in an increasing pace.
As US, EU has no leverage over
Russia for any negotiations never mind their rhetoric of “peace through
strength”. Strength is on Russian side and most likely it will be “peace
through capitulation.”
These European countries are stubbornly
in denial and so desperate to keep US involved and thus, setting up
provocations in Baltic region. Latvia with a Russian population makes up close
to or more than one third of the entire population, looks like keen to these
provocation and started with forcing the use of Latvian language in different
areas. Estonia has a large Russian
population, Lithuania has a %5 of Russian population, They still believe
and rely on the military power of US, feel, and think that because they are a
member of NATO they are protected and safe. They are, with their fantasies, playing a
dangerous game of provocations as a consequence of which they can lose all three small NATO
countries to Russia. Listening various
military experts, including from the region, for Russia it wouldn’t take more
than 60 hours to invade all three countries leaving no time for NATO to act
even if they are capable of interfering. The condemnations, same rhetoric and new
“sanctions” will cause more damage to their own economy at the expense of their
own people. It is highly unlikely as long as they do not start
prosecuting and killing Russian population in those countries, but it shows
how much the European ruling elite is desperate and how they disregard
human life for their fantasies.
Now that the US has shown its
intention to leave Europe to Europeans with conditions or suggestions that Europe
increases its military spending to % 5 of their GDP - by enriching the US
military industrial complex-, I wonder if the arrogance and ignorance of
the European leaders will cease or will get worse. Time will tell soon enough.
One thing is sure; US is slowly
but surely admitting the new reality in Ukraine-Europe specific and world in
general and taking measures to protect its own interests and strengthen its
place in the new world order.
Seth’s speech, although
hypocritical since there is no military aggressor in the world other than US
itself, is an indication of this “new world order” admission.
Trump has
expressed a strong relationship with Xi Jinping. We don't have an
inevitable desire to clash with China. There's a recognition that there are
divergent interests which lead to a need for strength on the American side to
ensure our interests are advanced and that ultimately any aggression is
deterred. That's the real thing. But we don't feel like conflict is
inevitable and certainly don't seek conflict with China and that's why
President Trump has that good relationship with Xi Jinping.
We can see the hypocrisy and
double talk in his speech. He continues;
But it was
prudent for us to work with allies and partners in the Pacific to ensure that
that deterrence, hard power deterrence, not just reputational but
reality, exists. And that’s why a lot of my first phone calls as Secretary of
Defense were to Pacific allies, to Australia, to
Japan, to South Korea, to the Philippines and others, and will continue
because that, just as this alliance in Europe is critical, working by, with,
and through allies and partners in that region who understand the reality of
the ascendant Chinese threat will be critical. It can’t be America
alone. It won’t be America alone if we are to deter that.
He mentions “Pacific allies, to
Australia, to Japan, to South Korea, to the Philippines and others ”. The fact is there is no “others” . Philippines is a semi-colony, proxy of US. So
is South Korea with no political and military independence to speak of. South
Korea is supposedly a “sovereign” country its constitution spells out that incase of a
war situation, the US general will take over the South Korean Military command.
With North Korea on his head, its military is useless, a war will require 100s of
thousands of US troops on the ground to defend, and due to the distance, it will
bring the serious problem of logistics.
Philippines have no military
power to consider. Its military cannot even step in to some islands without the
pre-approved permission of Muslim authorities controlling the islands. They
cannot go to so many regions in other islands that is controlled by the leftist
guerillas. In other words, Philippines have its own problems to deal with. It
has a situation where a war can bring about new “independent” regions through
uprisings by Muslims on one side and guerillas on the other.
Japan is in a political turmoil
like Philippines and South Korea with people are constantly demonstrating against
the war, against their governments policies. It has a peculiar situation with
Russia, Japan and Russia is technically at war since there was no treaty signed
ending the war between them after the 2nd WW. The islands, a couple
miles off the shore of Japan, are Russian owned with military bases on some of
them.
Australia, militarily, is a joke
like its master Britain.
The problem is that US Neo-cons, with
their fantasy, while they are admitting the new world order, they approach the
issue of any war without considering that new world order and new military
alliances. There will not be any war salt US versus China with its proxies Philippines,
South Korea and Japan, Australia. That war will inevitably be a war between US
and its allies against the alliance of China, Russia, and North Korea. A war
that is not winnable by any alliance against them in the region. Same is and
valid to Ukraine war with the participation of US and the West which would
trigger the China, Russia, North Korea alliance.
It was US who forced the war upon
Russia in order to weaken and dismantle Russia for the purpose of containing
China as a follow up, which brought
about the China-Russia-North Korea alliance. War in those regions are existential
question for them as any such war in Americas would be an existential question
for the US. That is why their alliance is an existential alliance. Containing China is going to be a big
challenge for the US which definitely will require relocating its forces from “non-crucial”
regions to China sea and , if they can find , some bordering small countries
around China. And/or they will hopelessly keep on driving a wedge between China
and Russia in order to pit them against each other.
Although it seems that the policy
and practices of the Russophobia faction of Neo-Cons is replaced by China-phobia
faction, in its core it is a continuation of Neo-Con policies in different shape
and form. Proceeding from the context of the entire speeches and practices, it
is definitely a change regardless of the hypocrisy (especially on freedom of
speech), but it sounds and looks like a tactical change more than a strategic
change.
Conclusion
The speeches of US officials confirms
the change in the foreign policy, as far as Russia, Ukraine and Europe is
concerned, is real. However, how far it
will go is uncertain despite the fact that they aimed at opening the path to talk to
Russia by admission of the realities; Ukraine war is forced upon Russia,
Ukraine is losing the war, returning the occupied regions to Ukraine is not a
realistic expectation, Ukraine will not be a member of NATO, etc. These are the
fundamental conditions of Russia for the start of any talk at all. Declaring that no US forces will be in Ukraine as peace keepers was the punch line for setting
the ground for the initiation of talks.
However, calling it “peace talks”, in my opinion, is delusional. Under the current conditions of the battle
ground, and considering the strategic goals of Russia, any “peace talk” is highly unlikely, peace through
capitulation is more likely. By the time the talks start, Russia will
extend its occupied areas further. Russia either will occupy Dnieper, Nikolaev,
Kharkov and Odessa or will require autonomy for those Russian majority regions
for any peace. That will not be accepted
by Ukraine, neither by the Europeans. Although US is looking for a “face
saving exit” from Ukraine war, this kind of scenario will be difficult to
swallow by the “exceptionalist” US and its current arrogant administration.
That’s why it is too early to be “hopeful” for any “peace talk” or more like,
for any “peace” in Ukraine. Here comes my prediction for the election of Trump;
“a scape goat” for the failures even if he succeeds in a “face saving exit”.
US is a declining empire both economically and militarily. Militarily it is expended very thin all around the world, neither logistically nor actual militarily it is in the condition of waging any war against any strong country never mind against Russia. Economically US is standing on its feet due to the value of dollar, its still largely being the trade exchange currency, financial institutions like SWIFT, etc. However, BRICS is collapsing this monopoly slowly but gradually.
The only alternative for the US, like the purpose of exiting Ukraine and leaving EU to deal with is; dealing with its own economic recovery and restructuring its military power and setting its economy in war footing again. Stalin’s assessment of 2nd WW is applicable to the current situation. He stated; “As regards the aggressive countries, such as Japan, Germany, and Italy, who have already reorganized their economy on a war footing, they, because of the intense development of their war industry, are not yet experiencing a crisis of overproduction, although they are approaching it. This means that by the time the economically powerful, non-aggressive countries begin to emerge from the phase of crisis, the aggressive countries, having exhausted their reserves of gold and raw material in the course of the war fever, are bound to enter a phase of very severe crisis.”
With the Ukraine war and the transformation to the multipolar world order, US and the West depleted their military arsenal in a way that they cannot carry out a war. No wars can be won without the economic power and economic stability to support a long war. All the economic sanction imposed on Russia strengthened the Russian economy by forcing them to be self-sufficient, yet in turn Europe fell into a deep economic crises shifting the entire burden on the backs of its people. Russia’s military industry and its capacity multiplied to a degree that they produce more in one year than entire US and West. Russia already have transferred its economy in war footing while US remained far behind and depleted its arsenal and going through an economic crises. It seems same is inevitable for China. As Stalin stated; “ as distinct from the preceding crisis, the present crisis is not a general one, but as yet involves chiefly the economically powerful countries which have not yet placed themselves on a war economy basis.” China, especially due to overt hostility of US, will follow the foot steps and convert its defense industry to offensive war footing because “ all the other big capitalist powers are beginning to reorganize themselves on a war footing. “
Under such conditions the declining US empire is in a quagmire; either it pulls itself in for a period of time and revive its economy and military, or risks facilitating its decline for a long time.
The other important implications they obviously considering is that the “image-damage control” rhetoric and actions will not be enough to convince its puppets and/or alliances around the world that US will and are capable to “protect” them.
The world is in a cross road where geopolitical, economic, and military alliances will bound to change drastically . Either we will see more and extended proxy wars or live through a period of peace till the current balance of power changes; a period of respite to get ready for new wars. We will wait and see the direction before the end of this year.
Erdogan A
February 15, 2025
Thailand
Quotes from Stalin, Report on the Work of the Central Committee to the Eighteenth Congress of the C.P.S.U.(B.)
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