Emerging conflict between Israel and Turkiye ; how far it can go?
Lets have a background idea on relationships.
Israel
Historically Turkiye and Israel have
long had strained relations, particularly over issues such as territorial
disputes, water resources, and Israel's treatment of Palestinian people. These tensions have led to diplomatic
conflicts, though both countries have also maintained periods of
cooperation.
In the Syrian Civil War Israel
has provided support to groups like ISIS in Syria opposed to Hezbollah and the
Assad regime. This support is often aimed at countering threats and maintaining
dominance in the region. Turkiye has taken a more direct approach, supporting
Syrian opposition forces like FSA (SNA), HTS as
part of its broader strategy against Kurdish groups. Turkish military
operations in Syria are often framed within the context of combating “terrorism.”
Israel typically aligned with Western countries and Arab states opposed to
Iran. Turkiye has maintained ties with Western nations but also seek an
independent foreign policy, sometimes conflicting with traditional allies. Both
Israel and Turkiye have significant intelligence agencies and have historically
collaborated on various operations. In Syria, this cooperation involved sharing
intelligence and coordinating efforts against common threats to their interests.
The two countries have experienced frequent diplomatic breakdowns. Both
countries are seeking to secure their strategic positions in the region,
whether through maintaining influence over certain groups, areas or protecting their interests as the
situation evolves.
That is why the Israel-Türkiye
conflict in Syria is a multifaceted issue that involves complex historical, economic,
political, strategic, and military dynamics.
US
The political relationship between the United States and Turkiye over the past 20 years is characterized by a complex interplay of collaboration and conflict. The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 saw Türkiye’s initial support, reflecting shared concerns about “terrorism” both of whom played a role in forming and supporting the future “terrorist” organisations. However, the 2003 Iraq War marked a significant divergence, with Turkiye opposing the invasion due to concerns over instability in the region. The conflict in Syria has been a contentious area, with both nations supporting opposing groups. The U.S. provided support to Kurdish forces, while Turkiye viewed them as a security threat due to their proximity to the Turkish border.
Economic developments and
political changes in Turkiye have influenced the nation's policies and
interactions with the US. The US-Turkiye relationship over the past 20 years
reflects a shifting balance between
strategic collaboration and political disagreements, particularly regarding
regional security issues like the Syrian conflict and domestic policies in Turkiye.
This dynamic underscores the complexity of their alliance within the context of
global and Middle Eastern geopolitics.
The relationship between US,
Israel and Turkiye is not as simple as these “writers” from Turkiye depict to be. No relations can be taken by themselves
only but in their relations to other related countries and the concrete
situation in world general. We live in an era where economic, political, and
strategic partnerships are shattering on one side, developing and consolidating
on the other. Each country, including those who are politically dependent, taking
different economic and political steps fitting their own interests. To claim
that Turkiye and Israel conflicting in order to serve the US interests is an
ignorant claim at best or an oblivious one at worse case.
During the last 30 years, Turkiye has gone through the phases of monopoly capitalism, state capitalism in which all the public industries were privatized, formation of finance capital, export of capital, development of military industry, militarization, and export of military .. On top, it has invaded a country and occupying part of its land. In this context, Turkiye is an imperialist country not only in its economic sense but in its combined, cumulative definition… As a ”little imperialist “ country, it is using its strategic importance and military power to seize every opportunity that arises from the conflict among the superpowers and not hesitating taking huge risks so far which it has been successful at the outcomes of all. It is of course not because it is powerful economically but because it has its strategic and economic importance for the superpowers who don’t want to alienate them and thus compromise and give concessions for their own strategic and economic interests despite all the backstabbing and unreliability character. ..Turkiye is not a vassal state and acting for its own dominant class’s interests while backstabbing the others..” (1)
Possible conflict between Israel and Turkiye
On the sudden collapse of Syria, I had stated that ‘’The “causes” of such developments do not derive from one reason but a cumulative dialectically connected reasons. Each party involved do and may have its own reasons both colliding and coinciding with the others in its character. At the initial phase it may coincide but in the medium and long term it may contradict even to an antagonistic scale…Although Israel is the big winner in short term but considering it is waging multiple losing wars in the region and surrounded by “enemies”, religious factions, it may well be the worse loser in the long term.” (2)
With the collapse of Syria, the
conflict of interests between Turkiye and Israel resurfaced in a way that may
turn into a military conflict. In order to prevent that Israel and Turkiye held
talks in Azerbaijan on the creation of a so-called “deconfliction mechanism”
for preventing a conflict between them in Syria. No details of the meeting were
disclosed. However, the stakes are high for the escalation of Israeli-Turkish rivalry in Syria.
Despite all the false narratives
about Israel’s winning the war against Hamas, Hizballah and Houthis, Israel is
collapsing economically, militarily, and strategically. Israel hardly standing
on its feet with the immense support of US. Israel has been trying very hard to
draw the US into a war with Iran. A war most likely which could bring about the destruction of Israel. Israel, with its current weak condition is ready
to be “falling at the table of the wolves”. Even his long time Arab alliances
are waiting for Israel to fall at the
dinner table. Especially the elites of Turkiye, the “hungry wolf” is waiting
for the right opportunity and preparing for it. Whether US-Israel attack Iran
or not, contrary to all the narratives, Israel’s situation and condition is desperate
and in despair. Conditions for a new
partition of and/or balance of powers in
the Middle east is on the horizon.
The ”peace offer” of the “Ottoman”
Turkiye to the Kurds is a part of its strategy for the region. The offer largely
welcomed with some reservations within Turkiye. However, Kurds are divided on
the subject mostly on regional bases. Syrian Kurds, as a similar writer says; "The conclusion that must be
drawn from this development is this: Israel will never allow the Turks to
settle in Syria! The Kurds must hold on tightly to this hand that Israel has
extended at just the right time, and that is what is happening. You may not be
able to see it in this fog, but believe me, very good days will come, this map (
a map that extends from north to south to Israel as Kurdish region) will come true." In other words, there
are strictly pro-Israeli influential Kurds in Syria and in Turkiye too. So the
Kurds will be the target of both Turkiye and Israel to gain over.
The fact is that Türkiye’s
strategy is to be the dominant military power in the Middle East and North
Africa. Having a border to Syria, with its presence in its large cities, Turkiye
is planning to bolster the new “Syrian Government’s” military capabilities and
enrich its own military industrial complex. For this purpose Turkiye may shift its
policies (that contradicts its narratives) towards Hamas and even
towards Hizballah to replace Iran, and become the new sponsor of the “Resistance Axis”.
Based on the statements of
Lebanese PM, it seems that US and Israel is staging a civil war in Lebanon.
Turkiye might find that as an opportunity to either prevent it or support the
anti-Israeli forces in Lebanon as a way of inserting its political and military relevancy in the region. That would be an indirect blow to Israel and its “security’
whatever left of it. Such a tactic could open the door all the way to Gaza in
order to support the Palestinians. That facilitates the replacement of Iran as
the main sponsor of the “Resistance Axis”.
For the regional leadership and
hegemony in the region, using proxies against Israel is the best option for
Turkiye since a direct military conflict with Israel does not seem plausible
yet. Having said that, with the establishment of military bases, installation
of air defense systems in Syria may escalate the situation. They are both
trying to fill the void left from Iran as the new leader of the region. Israel
wants to keep and even extend its dominance in the region through divisions and
continuing internal conflicts, Turkiye wants to unite them under its own wings
as part of its “Ottoman” dream.
In this sense, any compromise between
them, even if it is an agreement of partitioning Syria between them, will not
be a sustainable one. The conflict of
interests between Israel and Turkiye, on going conflicts in the region is ripe
for the possibility of a direct conflict between Israel and Turkiye. If the conditions
do not change, if Israel does not commit suicide by attacking Iran, a direct
conflict between Turkiye and Israel is an inevitable outcome.
Conclusion
As I had noted on earlier
article, “The quick collapse of Syrian
Government and military has not happened due to one reason alone but due to a
cumulative dialectically connected
reasons. Each party within the “coalition” planning, plotting, and
cheering this collapse had its own
reasons. .. reasons of each involved in “coalition”
had both colliding and coinciding,
conforming character. The collapse of Assad regime was a conforming result as
far as their primary goal is concerned. However, the medium and long term
consequence show sharp contradiction and collisions in antagonistic scale.
Because the existing so called “coalition” is made up of different parties with different aims, their interests diverge from the point of the
success of primary goal to a
different road on which each pursue
its own goal contradicting the other.” The contradiction between the interests of
Israel and Turkiye within that “coalition” is probably the most striking and
dangerous one. Based on the current conditions a conflict between Israel and
Turkey is inevitable. However, the world has changed from unipolar world order to
multipolar world order structure which is causing rapid, constant and unexpected changes. The
conditions may change and the “inevitability” of a conflict may cease to exist.
The existence of Israel the way
it is, is a questionable subject being discussed by so many political experts.
It’s economy is in ruin, it’s “military might “
has been exposed to be a fiction including its air force which successfully used against the small countries with no air
defense, but failed miserably against Iran. Now they are planning to have US attack Iran. It is not clear yet if US will
take such a risky and costly military action against Iran out of which it will not come out as a
winner. If Israel attacks Iran, that could be the end of Israel despite its “mythical”
nuclear arsenal. In that case the question of a war between Turkey and Israel
would cease to exist.
If we assume that US and Iran
made an agreement on non-existent “nuclear
weapon” and Israel did not attack Iran, only then the question of a conflict
between Turkiye and Israel will be an inevitable one. Considering the current
situation, with its genocide war in Gaza, war with Hizballah, war with Houthis,
war with Iraqi Shiites and, as a consequential
part of its conflict with Turkiye, an inevitable war with Syria, the outcome of
such a war can not be in Israel’s favor. Declining US cannot afford pushing Turkiye to Russia-China block, at
best, it can be a part of a negotiation in favor of Turkiye with some
concessions to Israel-that is if Israel the way it still exists. The outcome
will not be different if US pushes Turkiye to rival block in regard to this question,
but more devastating for the regional interests of US.
People living with perspectives, fantasies,
and narratives of the unipolar world order times, lacks the ability to see the
facts of the new multi polar world order. So many countries in the world fighting
for their political independence, taking active neutral stands, and finding courage to dismiss the threats of US. Developing countries are looking for and forming new economic
and strategic alliances, developed countries looking for opportunities for sphere of influence. Türkiye with its military industrial complex and
strong military power, aggressively seeking
to enlarge its sphere of influence. That fact alone indicates that Turkiye will
not hesitate getting into a conflict; for one, war is the best way to distract
the population from all the economic hardship, injustice, corruption, oppression, and exploitation going on within
its orders.
Erdogan A
April 22, 2025
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