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Emerging conflict between Israel and Turkiye ; how far it can go?

Proceeding from the wrong premises always ends up in wrong conclusions. Here is a typical premises that is dominant in Turkiye;  "The competition between the Turkish Republic and the Israeli states is to implement the interests of the imperialist camp led by the US and to secure the servant position". This  statement, in addition to its falsehood, has a variety of contradiction within. According to the writer the elite of Turkiye is a servant to US, like Israel, is a servant to US and somehow, both servants are “fighting” against each other in order to serve the interests of their masters! It is mind boggling to see this kind of statements are being made. They are disregarding the recent history of political relations and interactions between the referenced countries. As if it is a struggle between the bourgeois parties within a country in which two bourgeois parties are competing to serve the elite class. This subject is related to international relations, there is no historical example of such a conflict between two countries in order to serve the imperialist country they are politically dependent on. There are serious questions, such as ; who really controls the foreign policy of US when it comes to the issues of Middle East; does  Israel control the US or US controls Israel?  The objective  reality is being  repeated even  by most of the US experts that all the US foreign policies related to Middle East so far have been determined by the Israeli lobby. Israel and US are inseparable entities. To add Turkiye into that equation has no validity to speak of.   It is true that Turkiye is heavily dependent on US economically but as far as political independence is concerned, Turkiye has more  political independence than most of the European countries in their relations with US. That’s why a conflict between Turkiye and Israel in so many ways will be an indirect conflict between US and Turkiye. It is not a question of if but at what degree the conflict between Israel and Turkiye will be.

Lets have a background idea on relationships.

Israel

Historically  Turkiye and Israel have long had strained relations, particularly over issues such as territorial disputes, water resources, and Israel's treatment of Palestinian people.  These tensions have led to diplomatic conflicts, though both countries have also maintained periods of cooperation.

In the Syrian Civil War Israel has provided support to groups like ISIS in Syria opposed to Hezbollah and the Assad regime. This support is often aimed at countering threats and maintaining dominance in the region. Turkiye has taken a more direct approach, supporting Syrian opposition forces like FSA (SNA), HTS  as part of its broader strategy against Kurdish groups. Turkish military operations in Syria are often framed within the context of combating “terrorism.” Israel typically aligned with Western countries and Arab states opposed to Iran. Turkiye has maintained ties with Western nations but also seek an independent foreign policy, sometimes conflicting with traditional allies. Both Israel and Turkiye have significant intelligence agencies and have historically collaborated on various operations. In Syria, this cooperation involved sharing intelligence and coordinating efforts against common threats to their interests. The two countries have experienced frequent diplomatic breakdowns. Both countries are seeking to secure their strategic positions in the region, whether through maintaining influence over certain groups,  areas or protecting their interests as the situation evolves.

That is why the Israel-Türkiye conflict in Syria is a multifaceted issue that involves complex historical, economic, political, strategic, and military dynamics.

US

The political relationship between the United States and Turkiye over the past 20 years is characterized by a complex interplay of collaboration and conflict. The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 saw Türkiye’s initial support, reflecting shared concerns about “terrorism” both of whom played a role in forming and supporting the future “terrorist” organisations. However, the 2003 Iraq War marked a significant divergence, with Turkiye opposing the invasion due to concerns over instability in the region. The conflict in Syria has been a contentious area, with both nations supporting opposing groups. The U.S. provided support to Kurdish forces, while Turkiye viewed them as a security threat due to their proximity to the Turkish border.

Economic developments and political changes in Turkiye have influenced the nation's policies and interactions with the US.  The  US-Turkiye relationship over the past 20 years reflects a shifting  balance between strategic collaboration and political disagreements, particularly regarding regional security issues like the Syrian conflict and domestic policies in Turkiye. This dynamic underscores the complexity of their alliance within the context of global and Middle Eastern geopolitics.

The relationship between US, Israel and Turkiye is not as simple as these “writers” from Turkiye  depict to be. No relations can be taken by themselves only but in their relations to other related countries and the concrete situation in world general. We live in an era where economic, political, and strategic partnerships are shattering on one side, developing and consolidating on the other. Each country, including those who are politically dependent, taking different economic and political steps fitting their own interests. To claim that Turkiye and Israel conflicting in order to serve the US interests is an ignorant claim at best or an oblivious one at worse case.

During the last 30 years, Turkiye has gone through the phases of monopoly capitalism, state capitalism in which all the public industries were privatized, formation of finance capital, export of capital, development of military industry, militarization, and export of military .. On top, it has invaded a country and occupying part of its land. In this context, Turkiye is an imperialist country not only in its economic sense but in its combined, cumulative definition… As a ”little imperialist “ country, it is using its strategic importance and military power to seize every opportunity that arises from  the conflict among the superpowers and not hesitating taking huge risks so far which it has been successful at the outcomes of all. It is of course not because it is powerful economically but because it has its strategic and economic importance for the superpowers who don’t want to alienate them and thus compromise and give concessions for their own strategic and economic interests despite all the backstabbing  and unreliability character. ..Turkiye is not a vassal state and acting for its own dominant class’s interests while backstabbing the others..” (1) 

 

Possible conflict between Israel and Turkiye

On the sudden collapse of Syria, I had stated that ‘’The “causes” of such developments do not derive from one reason but a cumulative dialectically connected  reasons. Each party involved do and may have its own reasons both colliding and coinciding with the others  in its character. At the initial phase it may coincide but in the medium and long term it may contradict even to an  antagonistic scale…Although Israel is the big winner in short term but considering it is waging multiple losing wars in the region and surrounded by “enemies”, religious factions, it may well be the worse loser in the long term.” (2) 

With the collapse of Syria, the conflict of interests between Turkiye and Israel resurfaced in a way that may turn into a military conflict. In order to prevent that Israel and Turkiye held talks in Azerbaijan on the creation of a so-called “deconfliction mechanism” for preventing a conflict between them in Syria. No details of the meeting were disclosed. However, the stakes are high for  the escalation of  Israeli-Turkish rivalry in Syria.

Despite all the false narratives about Israel’s winning the war against Hamas, Hizballah and Houthis, Israel is collapsing economically, militarily, and strategically. Israel hardly standing on its feet with the immense support of US. Israel has been trying very hard to draw the US into a war with Iran. A war most likely which could  bring about the destruction of Israel.  Israel, with its current weak condition is ready to be “falling at the table of the wolves”. Even his long time Arab alliances are waiting  for Israel to fall at the dinner table. Especially the elites of Turkiye, the “hungry wolf” is waiting for the right opportunity and preparing for it. Whether US-Israel attack Iran or not, contrary to all the narratives, Israel’s situation and condition is desperate and in despair.  Conditions for a new partition of and/or balance of powers  in the Middle east is on the horizon.

The ”peace offer” of the “Ottoman” Turkiye to the Kurds is a part of its strategy for the region. The offer largely welcomed with some reservations within Turkiye. However, Kurds are divided on the subject mostly on regional bases. Syrian Kurds, as a similar  writer says; "The conclusion that must be drawn from this development is this: Israel will never allow the Turks to settle in Syria! The Kurds must hold on tightly to this hand that Israel has extended at just the right time, and that is what is happening. You may not be able to see it in this fog, but believe me, very good days will come, this map ( a map that extends from north to south to Israel as Kurdish region)  will come true." In other words, there are strictly pro-Israeli influential Kurds in Syria and in Turkiye too. So the Kurds will be the target of both Turkiye and Israel to gain over.

The fact is that Türkiye’s strategy is to be the dominant military power in the Middle East and North Africa. Having a border to Syria, with its presence in its large cities, Turkiye is planning to bolster the new “Syrian Government’s” military capabilities and enrich its own military industrial complex.  For this purpose Turkiye may shift its policies (that contradicts its narratives) towards Hamas and even towards Hizballah to replace Iran, and become the new sponsor of  the  “Resistance Axis”.  

Based on the statements of Lebanese PM, it seems that US and Israel is staging a civil war in Lebanon. Turkiye might find that as an opportunity to either prevent it or support the anti-Israeli forces in Lebanon as a way of inserting its political and military relevancy in the region. That would be an indirect blow to Israel and its “security’ whatever left of it. Such a tactic could open the door all the way to Gaza in order to support the Palestinians. That facilitates the replacement of Iran as the main  sponsor of the  “Resistance Axis”.

For the regional leadership and hegemony in the region, using proxies against Israel is the best option for Turkiye since a direct military conflict with Israel does not seem plausible yet. Having said that, with the establishment of military bases, installation of air defense systems in Syria may escalate the situation. They are both trying to fill the void left from Iran as the new leader of the region. Israel wants to keep and even extend its dominance in the region through divisions and continuing internal conflicts, Turkiye wants to unite them under its own wings as part of its  “Ottoman” dream.

In this sense, any compromise between them, even if it is an agreement of partitioning Syria between them, will not be a sustainable one.  The conflict of interests between Israel and Turkiye, on going conflicts in the region is ripe for the possibility of a direct conflict between Israel and Turkiye. If the conditions do not change, if Israel does not commit suicide by attacking Iran, a direct conflict between Turkiye and Israel is an inevitable outcome.

Conclusion

As I had noted on earlier article, “The quick  collapse of Syrian Government and military has not happened due to one reason alone but due to a cumulative dialectically connected  reasons. Each party within the “coalition” planning, plotting, and cheering this collapse had  its own reasons. .. reasons of  each involved in “coalition” had  both colliding and coinciding, conforming character. The collapse of Assad regime was a conforming result as far as their primary goal is concerned. However, the medium and long term consequence show sharp contradiction and collisions in antagonistic scale. Because the   existing  so called “coalition” is made up of  different parties with different aims,  their interests diverge from the point of the success of primary goal to a  different road on which each pursue  its own goal contradicting the other.”  The contradiction between the interests of Israel and Turkiye within that “coalition” is probably the most striking and dangerous one. Based on the current conditions a conflict between Israel and Turkey is inevitable. However, the world has changed from unipolar world order to multipolar world order structure which is causing rapid,  constant and unexpected changes. The conditions may change and the “inevitability” of a conflict may cease to exist.

The existence of Israel the way it is, is a questionable subject being discussed by so many political experts. It’s economy is in ruin, it’s “military might “  has been exposed to be a fiction including  its air force which successfully used  against the small countries with no air defense, but failed miserably against Iran. Now they are planning to have US  attack Iran. It is not clear yet if US will take such a risky and costly military action against  Iran out of which it will not come out as a winner. If Israel attacks Iran, that could be the end of Israel despite its “mythical” nuclear arsenal. In that case the question of a war between Turkey and Israel would cease to exist.

If we assume that US and Iran made an agreement on non-existent  “nuclear weapon” and Israel did not attack Iran, only then the question of a conflict between Turkiye and Israel will be an inevitable one. Considering the current situation, with its genocide war in Gaza, war with Hizballah, war with Houthis, war with Iraqi Shiites and,  as a consequential part of its conflict with Turkiye, an inevitable war with Syria, the outcome of such a war can not be in Israel’s favor. Declining US cannot afford  pushing Turkiye to Russia-China block, at best, it can be a part of a negotiation in favor of Turkiye with some concessions to Israel-that is if Israel the way it still exists. The outcome will not be different if US pushes Turkiye to rival block in regard to this question, but more devastating for the regional interests of US.

People living with perspectives, fantasies, and narratives of the unipolar world order times, lacks the ability to see the facts of the new multi polar world order. So many countries in the world fighting for their political independence, taking active neutral stands, and  finding courage to dismiss the  threats of  US. Developing countries are looking for and forming new economic and strategic alliances, developed countries looking for opportunities for sphere of influence. Türkiye with its military industrial complex and strong military  power, aggressively seeking to enlarge its sphere of influence. That fact alone indicates that Turkiye will not hesitate getting into a conflict; for one, war is the best way to distract the population from all the economic hardship, injustice, corruption,  oppression, and exploitation going on within its orders.

Erdogan A

April 22, 2025

 

(1) A Marxist Leninist evaluation of the developments in Syria-winners and losers in the short term.

(2) Long term implications of Syria's collapse ; a Marxist Leninist  evaluation”

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