Capture of Maduro; this is what imperialism in its scientific meaning looks like.
Is this another but more convincing attempt of declining US aggressive imperialism in order to declare a victory out of defeat amongst the chain of defeats? Critical minded people should not jump into conclusions before seeing the next developments and final results.
We live in a dynamic era where events are changing far faster than we can comment on them. I delayed writing about Myanmar for a long time because the events in Myanmar are developing and changing rapidly, just like on the world stage. The "mapping" and "narratives" about Myanmar have become indistinguishable from those about Ukraine. "Ukraine is winning the war!", similarly, "The democratic forces of the Myanmar Government-in-exile, based in Washington DC, are winning the war against the military government in Myanmar!" Fabrications are presented as "facts," and based on these fabrications, narratives are created and shaped to generate consent for wars, government changes, cuts to social rights, and carrying out armament by diverting taxes collected from the people to the military industry. Those who oppose their narratives, from former soldiers to academics and intellectuals of the regimes, are all punished. While blatant electoral fraud is being sold as "democratic" in Europe, the Caucasus, and many other countries around the world, elections in a country weary of civil war and yearning for peace are being labeled "anti-democratic" even before they begin, and millions of dollars are being spent to prevent mass participation. ( I intend and plan to be in Myanmar during the election period, this time in the northern region to finalize the article with close and better knowledge.)
Coming back to issue of Venezuela, while the US manipulates the elections, changes the regimes all over the world fitting in their own interests, support every dictator who is their puppet, yet declare a democratically elected president of Venezuela as “Drug Lord”, “dictator” in order to justify its aggression and capturing of its leader. The fact is that with all its practices Trump, as a representative, more like s-elected “scape goat” of Neo-cons is presenting what a dictator looks like through his practices not only which is not supported by the American people, but in this case, by the congress. So he is portraying a “dictator” much blatantly.
Is this really a total defeat of Venezuela and a clearcut victory of US? Not even close. Victory requires so many battles to win. Winning one battle does not bring about a victory over all. In reality, with this practice, the US Neo-Cons once more have shot themselves on their foot. Yes, the “Hollywood movie” like capturing of Maduro was a success, not because of the “mythical” character of US military but because of the success of the CIA in bribing and buying the high ranking military and civil officers. Anyone with a critical mind can look at the helicopters flying over Caracas with no interference from the Venezuelan air defense can easily come up with the conclusion that everyone along the path to Maduro has been bought for the “special forces” to “walk in” and capture Maduro. We have seen the same scenario in Syria. As an update, 32 Cuban fighters have been killed during the "kidnapping" operation for whom Cuba declared two day mourning.
In our 2022 assessment related to Ukraine war and in general, we had come to the conclusion that 1) in this era the wars between the superpowers will be proxy wars, 2) due to the balance of powers, the declining empire US will eventually focus on its sphere of influence on its backyard, mainly on South America. In this sense, the capture of Maduro is an ultimatum, an intimidating practical message to all those leaders against US aggressive imperialism. We have witnessed the same successful tactics during the unipolar world order era which actually was first experienced during the bipolar world era when the Soviets and Chinese already had defeated Japan but US used nuclear bomb, not to defeat already defeated Japan but to intimidate and subjugate the rest of the world. It further followed with the murder of Libyan leader Qaddafi, executing Saddam of Iraq, assassinating so many leaders of resistance. They were successful in achieving their goals. Yes, they did not win the wars, but they were able to intimidate the “leaders” especially that of “socialist “ and “anti-imperialist party and organizations. This has been the era of “transformation “ of “communist and socialist” parties into reformist ones. That is why we see the “communist parties and organizations” have become not only reformist but conformists who preferred focusing on other “imperialists”, criticizing the socialist countries, countries who have socialist inclination and anti-imperialist struggles rather than focusing and waging struggles within their own countries-in most cases they do not. Ultra leftists words but no deeds as Lenin, Stalin and later Enver Hoxa put it.
Contrary to the understanding and definition of conventional era, in our era, the “Victory” is defined based on the achievements of the set strategic goals of the aggressor. What was Neo-Con’s goal in capturing Maduro? If it was just a message to intimidate the leaders of other countries, we can say , to a degree, that they have achieved their goal. However, listening Trump and his claim of ownership of Venezuelan oil, ruling a sovereign country from afar , this “goal” still considered as a far-fetch one. Listening the ex-military and CIA officers on the “invasion” of Venezuela, they all come to one conclusion; it could not succeed and become costly to US worse than Vietnam. US needs to have boots on the Venezuela ground supported by the fascists of Venezuela in order to further its first “success” . Despite all the Western Media propaganda showing the anti-Maduro, pro-US aggression protestors -mostly outside of Venezuela, we have not seen one US soldier on the ground. Latest large protests in Venezuela have all been pro-Maduro and anti-American. This, at least for now, indicates that the US’s expectation for a mass uprising and internal conflict is not ripe yet. It all comes down to the policy and practice of the government and military; will they take an appeasing, conformist stand or will they pin point all the high-ranking civil and military officials who committed treason, expose them and publicly punish them. The second and most important step would be capturing and punishing all the NGO’s and their members who (in the dumbest way) recorded videos of themselves and published on social sites cheering the US aggression. Without taking these steps, the likelihood of a civil war in Venezuela exists.
However, unlike all the other previously subjected countries, Maduro armed, especially the laboring masses. This may not be necessary for the large and militarily powerful countries but it is a necessity for countries without powerful military means and men. This reality of Venezuela which presented itself in numerous videos of armed people on the streets, may be a deterrence to fascist uprising since most are made up of upper classes and petty bourgeois who always falter between the powers; they are always on the side of powerful at any given time.
Looking at the current concrete realities and information we have – it may change any moment- the possibility of a successful US invasion of Venezuela is very unlikely.
So, the billions of dollars cost of military blockade of Venezuela, cost of bribing and buying the Venezuelan military and civilian officers -so far- brought about the “success” of capturing Maduro. Is this really a win or an act of realizing they cannot win and thus, an act of justifying and ratifying the declaration of victory over a defeat, an act of affirming triumph over setbacks and defeats rather than succumbing to them? We shall wait and see.
In my humble opinion, it is an act of declaring victory over defeat not only in Venezuela specific but in world general. Even if Maduro’s capture may and could “intimidate” some, the overall political consequences world wide will be counter productive and force so many countries to take proactive measures that they have never considered before in order to prevent such “treasons” within the high ranking officers.
The NGOs of NED and other foreign financed institutions-organizations have already been exposed to a large degree. Great number of countries enacting “transparency” laws for the NGOs. The lessons of Venezuela may well force countries to have strict control over the NGOs. They are the remaining affective “soft power” of US-West with their proxy media and foot soldiers unmatched by any superpower. In this sense, the “victory” is short term and superficial as compared to its long term consequences.
I believe that one of the fundamental reason behind all rhetoric is related to oil in Venezuela which is planned to be followed up for the oil in Iran in order to control world oil and slowdown the de-dollarization of oil trade. So far , it didn’t work in Venezuela and there is no indication that it could work for Iran- despite the fact that they have instigated and/or organized wide protests in Iran in order to set the ground for a regime change with their next planned assault..
It is a desperate act of declining aggressive imperialism, however the stands of other superpowers and developed countries will impact the outcome; non-intervention, appeasement policy or taking active stand against it. Stalin analysing the 2nd WW had said that ; “ The war is being waged by aggressor states, who in every way infringe upon the interests of the non-aggressive states, while the latter draw back and retreat, making concession after concession to the aggressors…How is it that the non-aggressive countries, which possess such vast opportunities, have so easily, and without any resistance, abandoned their positions and their obligations to please the aggressors?”” In the same report Stalin explained the core of “non-intervention policy; “ Formally speaking, the policy of non-intervention might be defined as follows: "Let each country defend itself from the aggressors as it likes and as best it can. That is not our affair. We shall trade both with the aggressors and with their victims." But actually speaking, the policy of non-intervention means conniving at aggression, giving free rein to war, and, consequently, transforming the war into a world war. The policy of non-intervention reveals an eagerness, a desire, not to hinder the aggressors in their nefarious work." Stalin, Report on the Work of the Central Committee to the Eighteenth Congress of the CPSU(B.)
As we have noted on our assessment during 2022, the current developments have nothing to do with the era of first world war, but a copy version of 2nd world war era.
Erdogan A
January 5, 2026
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