War in Ukraine; Now what? The prospects of the second phase and on?

Anti-NATO Protests France

The Western Media, in total cohesion, created a narrative, deception and illusion that not only Ukraine had a chance to win this war, but it was winning the war. This attitude of Western Media confirmed one more time that as a whole it is in the direct service of US-NATO in using Ukraine as a pawn against Russia. Its hypocrisy, big lies, exaggerations of Ukraine’s unsustainable military gains on one side, losses of Russia on other strengthen the illusion yet created a discontent among the Russian population which in the final analysis forced its government to take the necessary action, especially after the bombing attack on the Crimea bridge. In other words, the attitude of Western Media did not really help Ukraine but facilitated its coming ruin.

A day before the massive attack we mentioned that; “Monday will be the first "sunny" day without any clouds in the coming week. Looks like there is a high expectation of an "action" on the part of public opinion.” The excuses of cloudy days for air attacks could not work anymore to satisfy the anger and frustration of its people. So, we have witnessed the attacks on Monday morning, unlike the western wishful thinking that it would be a one-day-revenge attack, it kept on today, and probably will keep on although it may not be at the same intensity.

Anti-NATO protests Greece

I do not have to dwell on the “Military aids” from the west, any intelligent person would know that no amount of “help” from the West can be decisive in this war. After all, no country has unlimited stack of military equipment and supply to donate to other. Aside from the fact that most countries, including US depleted its stack for Ukraine, now they are dipping in the “absolute” weapons that are short in supply (ammunitions etc.) and will have no decisive affect against Russian military equipment especially against the air superiority- which even the US Military analysts grade as “have no equal in the world. Any new military equipment and ammunition need to be produced which takes months if not years. Any specialized equipment requires knowledge, expertise and training taking months, that is if it is not destroyed by Russia by the time they are trained.

This new development, in addition to the depletion of military stacks of Ukraine and of West, the Pre-negotiation studies have already started for negotiations that contains non-negotiable line items. In other words, there is no possibility of a negotiation anymore. Ukraine missed its chance in Istanbul negotiation which it could have gotten out of war easily, but being a proxy, carried out the order of US-NATO and did not comply with the agreement despite the fact that Russia pulled its military out of North Ukraine.

One can claim that Russia knew that US would be against this agreement yet signed it for the consideration of world “public opinion”. Although due to heavy western media narrative this factual event kept away from the general public eyes but is considered and will be considered by those people who have critical minds.

Anti-NATO Protests in Madrid

Is it only the US-NATO that wants to drag this war? No. As we have noted in our earlier articles, Russian strategy is not a short-term military strategy but a political strategy which has long term goals of expanding its “sphere of influence” and preventing the existence of NATO not only on its border but as far as possible, to the status of 1990s. That does require the dragging of this war all through the winter, invasion of all Russian speaking regions and even cities and towns and integrating them into Russian territory either with autonomous status or not. Odessa seems to be crucial for cutting Ukraine off Black Sea and ripping it from the US dependence and bringing into a dependent country to itself. This is a must in order for its overall strategy to work. As we have noted “considering the population and progressive ideological make up of Dnieper, Nikolayev, Odessa they are preparing themselves and the locals to further advance to these regions in order to force Ukraine bourgeoisie to an agreement much heavier than the one that they agreed in Istanbul.”

Squeezing Ukraine with the integration of these regions will inevitably bring about a “deterrent” result in its border countries, especially in those with Russian population at the borders. That is the deterrence to participate in NATO or have NATO forces in their countries. (Finland's quick change of heart yesterday is a good example) That in return will have another deterring factor, deterrence of new foreign mercenaries once most of the existent ones are eliminated.

If we summarize the strategies of both- Russia and US; One side is playing on the governments through its “partners” and/or lackeys to keep them within or forced the new ones into NATO. The other side is playing on the fear, suffering and discontent of people with the expectation that they inevitably will rise up, protest, and force their government for reforms and to the position of neutrality. This is already happening all over Europe and the Balkans will get larger and more forceful during the winter.

The policy of dragging the war for both sides is in line with their interests for the ongoing sphere of influence conflict. That is why the war will go on in different intensity until either the destruction of Ukraine or a government change with a position of neutrality.

Anti-NATO protests in Italy

Long term Russian strategy is not limited to military and political aspects. Despite all the “big lie” bombardment of Western Media, people will notice the frustrated, aggressive, uncalculated actions of Ukraine and US, while Russia is making itself looking like a “patient country “that acts only as a response to aggressive acts. Contrary to western media narratives all of which coming to the light as false and exaggeration, Russia is very careful in presenting itself as “reasonable” in practice. It is playing for the hearts and minds of the world population.

Integration of four regions with the autonomous status of Donetsk and Lugansk intact, was another great tactic of Russia which directed to influencing the public opinion of other Russian speaking, even Ukrainian anti-Euromaidan populated regions. That will facilitate the invasion of Odessa, Dnieper, Kharkiv, Nikolayev and ease the sustainment of them with the help of local population. Will this be realized? Most likely.

Will the loss of its significant influence in Ukraine and Russian bordering small countries will force declining US to “handshake” with Russia and make agreement on the spoils of European and other countries? Unlike the claims of Bernsteinists and Kautskyists, that is not possible as long as US-NATO has significant, decisive military and economic power. The conflict will go on, we probably witness an aggravation of conflict and more proxy wars in different parts of the world.

These proxy wars will bring about the (military and/or civil) fascization of more countries, more economic crisis and in return increase the mass struggles for reforms in some, revolutionary uprisings in others.

Anti-NATO Protests Check

People talk about “nuclear war". That is a real threat for sure, and it is possible, but highly unlikely for various reasons. One of the miscalculations is that when people talk about a nuclear war, they only consider US versus Russia. One cannot speak of a nuclear war against Russia without considering China and North Korea on its side, for their very existence is dependent on the existence of Russia in such situation. In other words, that war would be a war between US-NATO and China-Russia- North Korea (possibly Iran). In that kind of line up, no one, including the US, can benefit from such a war. They will continue proxy, regional wars to weaken economically (even their allies, like US is doing to Europe) or to strengthen their allies economically (like China is doing-what US did after 2nd WW) in order to get an upper hand in the sphere of influence through the strategic alliances.

In conclusion, as we have noted early stages of war, the war in Ukraine is not a war of Ukraine by and for itself, but a proxy war that is being waged in the conflict between US-NATO and Russia-China. That is why there is no way that Russia can and will lose a war on its border. The slow phase of Russia was carrying this war was a part of its larger aimed political strategy, and it will drag this war to the point that the gains aimed in its strategy are achieved to a satisfactory degree.

Erdogan A

10/10/2022

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Ukraine military as a guinea-pig for US-NATO, Ukraine is as the testing ground for Russia; trials and drawing lessons from each other's strategy and tactics. That is another reason why they will be extending the war longer than usual at the expense of the people's deaths and sufferings.

Despite the fact that the suffering is not limited to Ukraine but all over the world, it seems to be that they will extend the war indefinitely till people take actions against their own governments.

People are accustomed to the US-NATO wars with heavy involvement of air-forces which drops "cluster bombs", "carpet bombing" which brings about quick devastation and gradually ceases. Those were the wars carried out by a powerful imperialist country against an incomparable country. This war, however, is a "proxy" war waged in Ukraine between two militarily powerful country. No intelligent person who has a critical mind, who is capable of making basic research could believe that Ukraine has any chance to win this war from the start to the end.

These two countries- or blocs- never had a chance to test each other's current military power and the tactics, counter-tactics they use. Ukraine proxy war gave them - among other things- the chance to test their military-text-book tactics to weigh each other.

As we have noted in another article, even the US military experts noted that the tactics used by Ukraine in Kherson offensive was out of US military textbook- a tactic spelled out to be used against the Russian defense. It is not a secret that US military advisers are stationed in Kiev determining each tactic to be applied at each development.

They are testing each of their military theories in practice and actually determining their own tactics-to-be at the expense of Ukrainian people, soldiers and equipment.

The question is how-far this "testing" will be taken to.

It is impossible to gauge and determine the tactics which may change at each counter-tactic when the war involves such military powers.

That is why it is highly possible to expect that the war may spread to different border countries and non-border countries-Poland, Finland, Lithuania, Bosnia, Serbia, Georgia, Armenia etc.

If the US-NATO wants this testing to expand, Japan government seems to be ready, because it brings the Islands issue very often lately. However, if we take the issue together with the provocations of Taiwan, both of which concerns China, and thus, would be the "apex" and the trigger point of this testing.

Widespread protest due to discontent of masses, targeting the alliance of their governments to NATO may play a deterrent, preventive role. It is inevitable that these protests will be much more widespread and forceful during the winter.

Ironically, as noted in the previous article, which is what the Russian strategy is relying on, and that is one of the other tactical reasons of extending this war - a war that it could have won swiftly but preferred to extend.

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