War in Ukraine; Now what? The prospects of the second phase and on?

Anti-NATO Protests France

The Western Media, in total cohesion, created a narrative of deception and illusion that not only did Ukraine have a chance to win this war, but it was winning the war. This attitude of the Western Media confirmed one more time that as a whole it is in the direct service of US-NATO in using Ukraine as a pawn against Russia. Its hypocrisy, big lies, exaggerations of Ukraine’s unsustainable military gains on one side, and losses of Russia on the other strengthen the illusion, yet created discontent among the Russian population, which in the final analysis forced its government to take the necessary action, especially after the bombing attack on the Crimea bridge. In other words, the attitude of Western Media did not really help Ukraine but facilitated its coming ruin.

A day before the massive attack, we mentioned that: “Monday will be the first "sunny" day without any clouds in the coming week. Looks like there is a high expectation of an "action" on the part of public opinion.” The excuses of cloudy days for air attacks could not work anymore to satisfy the anger and frustration of its people. So, we have witnessed the attacks on Monday morning; unlike the Western wishful thinking that it would be a one-day revenge attack, it kept on today, and probably will keep on, although it may not be at the same intensity.

Anti-NATO protests Greece

I do not have to dwell on the “military aid” from the West, any intelligent person would know that no amount of “help” from the West can be decisive in this war. After all, no country has an unlimited stack of military equipment and supplies to donate to others. Aside from the fact that most countries, including the US, have depleted their stock for Ukraine, now they are dipping into the “absolute” weapons that are short in supply (ammunition, etc.) and will have no decisive effect against Russian military equipment, especially against air superiority- which even the US Military analysts grade as “have no equal in the world. Any new military equipment and ammunition need to be produced, which takes months if not years. Any specialized equipment requires knowledge, expertise, and training, taking months; that is if it is not destroyed by Russia by the time they are trained.

This new development, in addition to the depletion of military stocks of Ukraine and the West, means that pre-negotiation studies have already started for negotiations that contain non-negotiable line items. In other words, there is no possibility of negotiation anymore. Ukraine missed its chance in the Istanbul negotiations, which it could have gotten out of the war easily, but, being a proxy, carried out the order of the US-NATO and did not comply with the agreement despite the fact that Russia pulled its military out of northern Ukraine.

One can claim that Russia knew that the US would be against this agreement yet signed it for the consideration of world “public opinion”. Although, due to heavy Western media narrative, this factual event was kept away from the general public's eyes, it is considered and will be considered by those people who have critical minds.

Anti-NATO Protests in Madrid

Is it only the US-NATO that wants to drag this war? No. As we have noted in our earlier articles, Russian strategy is not a short-term military strategy but a political strategy which has long-term goals of expanding its “sphere of influence” and preventing the existence of NATO not only on its border but as far as possible, to the status of the 1990s. That does require dragging of this war all through the winter, invasion of all Russian-speaking regions and even cities and towns, and integrating them into Russian territory, either with autonomous status or not. Odessa seems to be crucial for cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea and ripping it from US dependence and bringing it into a dependent country to itself. This is a must in order for its overall strategy to work. As we have noted, “considering the population and progressive ideological makeup of Dnieper, Nikolayev, Odessa they are preparing themselves and the locals to further advance to these regions in order to force Ukraine bourgeoisie to an agreement much heavier than the one that they agreed in Istanbul.”

Squeezing Ukraine with the integration of these regions will inevitably bring about a “deterrent” result in its border countries, especially in those with a Russian population at the borders. That is the deterrence to participate in NATO or have NATO forces in their countries. (Finland's quick change of heart yesterday is a good example) That in return, will have another deterrent factor: deterrence of new foreign mercenaries once most of the existing ones are eliminated.

If we summarize the strategies of both- Russia and the US- one side is playing on the governments through its “partners” and/or lackeys to keep them within or force the new ones into NATO. The other side is playing on the fear, suffering, and discontent of people, with the expectation that they inevitably will rise up, protest, and force their government to make reforms and adopt a position of neutrality. This is already happening all over Europe, and the Balkans will get larger and more forceful during the winter.

The policy of dragging the war for both sides is in line with their interests in the ongoing sphere of influence conflict. That is why the war will go on with varying intensity until either the destruction of Ukraine or a government change with a position of neutrality.

Anti-NATO protests in Italy

Long term Russian strategy is not limited to military and political aspects. Despite all the “big lie” bombardment of Western Media, people will notice the frustrated, aggressive, uncalculated actions of Ukraine and the US, while Russia is making itself look like a “patient country that acts only as a response to aggressive acts. Contrary to Western media narratives all of which are coming to light as false and exaggerated, Russia is very careful in presenting itself as “reasonable” in practice. It is playing for the hearts and minds of the world population.

Integration of four regions with the autonomous status of Donetsk and Lugansk intact was another great tactic of Russia, which was directed to influencing the public opinion of other Russian-speaking, even Ukrainian anti-Euromaidan-populated regions. That will facilitate the invasion of Odessa, Dnieper, Kharkiv, Nikolayev and ease their sustainment of them with the help of the local population. Will this be realized? Most likely.

Will the loss of its significant influence in Ukraine and Russian-bordering small countries force a declining US to “handshake” with Russia and make an agreement on the spoils of European and other countries? Unlike the claims of Bernsteinists and Kautskyists, that is not possible as long as US-NATO has significant, decisive military and economic power. The conflict will go on, we will probably witness an aggravation of conflict and more proxy wars in different parts of the world.

These proxy wars will bring about the (military and/or civil) fascization of more countries, more economic crisis and in return increase the mass struggles for reforms in some, revolutionary uprisings in others.

Anti-NATO Protests Check

People talk about “nuclear war". That is a real threat for sure, and it is possible, but highly unlikely for various reasons. One of the miscalculations is that when people talk about a nuclear war, they only consider the US versus Russia. One cannot speak of a nuclear war against Russia without considering China and North Korea on its side, for their very existence is dependent on the existence of Russia in such a situation. In other words, that war would be a war between US-NATO and China-Russia- North Korea (possibly Iran). In that kind of lineup, no one, including the US, can benefit from such a war. They will continue proxy, regional wars to weaken economically (even their allies, like US is doing to Europe) or to strengthen their allies economically (like China is doing- what the US did after 2nd WW) in order to get an upper hand in the sphere of influence through the strategic alliances.

In conclusion, as we have noted in the early stages of war, the war in Ukraine is not a war of Ukraine by and for itself, but a proxy war that is being waged in the conflict between US-NATO and Russia-China. That is why there is no way that Russia can and will lose a war on its border. The slow phase of Russia carrying this war was part of its larger aimed political strategy, and it will drag this war to the point that the gains aimed at in its strategy are achieved to a satisfactory degree.

Erdogan A

10/10/2022

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Ukraine's military as a guinea pig for US-NATO; Ukraine is the testing ground for Russia; trials and drawing lessons from each other's military means, strategy, and tactics. That is another reason why they will be extending the war longer than usual at the expense of the people's deaths and suffering.

Despite the fact that the suffering is not limited to Ukraine but is happening all over the world, it seems to be that they will extend the war indefinitely till people take action against their own governments.

People are accustomed to the US-NATO wars with heavy involvement of air forces, which drop "cluster bombs", "carpet bombing", which brings about quick devastation and gradually ceases. Those were the wars carried out by a powerful imperialist country against an incomparable country. This war, however, is a "proxy" war waged in Ukraine between two militarily powerful countries. No intelligent person who has a critical mind, who is capable of making basic research, could believe that Ukraine has any chance to win this war from start to the end.

These two countries- or blocs- never had a chance to test each other's current military power, new military means, and the tactics and counter-tactics they use. Ukraine's proxy war gave them - among other things- the chance to test their military-text-book tactics, new weapons to weigh each other.

As we have noted in another article, even the US military experts noted that the tactics used by Ukraine in Kherson offensive were out of the US military textbook- a tactic spelled out to be used against the Russian defense. It is not a secret that US military advisers are stationed in Kiev determining each tactic to be applied at each development.

They are testing each of their military theories in practice and actually determining their own tactics-to-be at the expense of Ukrainian people, soldiers, and equipment.

The question is how far this "testing" will be taken to.

It is impossible to gauge and determine the tactics which may change at each counter-tactic when the war involves such military powers.

That is why it is highly possible to expect that the war may spread to different border countries and non-border countries-Poland, Finland, Lithuania, Bosnia, Serbia, Georgia, Armenia etc.

If the US-NATO wants this testing to expand, the Japanese government seems to be ready, because it brings the Islands issue very often lately. However, if we take the issue together with the provocations of Taiwan, both of which concern China, and thus would be the "apex" and the trigger point of this testing.

Widespread protest due to discontent of masses, targeting the alliance of their governments to NATO, may play a deterrent, preventive role. It is inevitable that these protests will be much more widespread and forceful during the winter.

Ironically, as noted in the previous article, this is what the Russian strategy is relying on, and that is one of the other tactical reasons for extending this war - a war that it could have won swiftly but preferred to extend.

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