Russian silence; an indication of valid arrogance or its strategy?

Despite all the recent developments in Ukraine, Russian government keeps its silence, does not make any comment on the events not only to the world public but to its own public. What may be the reasons for this silence? A silence that lets the people wonder. And with the "headline" aimed Ukraine's attacks, and Russian withdrawals; the silence is causing the loss on political ground. 

When we said in early September that "either Declaration of War or the beginning of the end of Russia" (in political sense) there was no referendum then. With the referendum and following the formal finalization of accession of these four regions, the "Special Military Operation" legally ended. Now the situation is translated into the "occupation of and aggressive offensives to these regions' which automatically triggers the "defense of its lands and people". However, we do not hear any comments on this matter, nor do we hear any ultimatum or a declaration of war from the Russian officials. They act and function as if everything is going in order, nothing to be concerned about. In other words, they are taking it slow as they have taken the "Special Military Operation" slow and in a dragging way. 

The question is not if Russia will lose militarily at the end. It is a question of politics, political psychology and political risk that is being taken by being silent and dragging the war. The developments in Kherson and Kharkov literally have been taken very lightly as far as the "statements" made by the Russian officials. This forces us to believe that Russians will continue for a while the old strategy of throw heavy punches while pulling back- attack in decisive places where the Ukrainians weakened its forces in order to sustain its new gains and forcing Ukraine again to weaken previous front by withdrawing forces from there, and strengthening this new front. Because Ukraine does not have endless troops and military means to support all the fronts, it has sustained substantial losses at each offensive. Russia, on the other hand, withdraws its forces quickly while inflicting heavy damage to Ukraine.  

As we have noted in a previous article; "Gain requires sustainment of the gain. Sustainment requires drawing forces from other fronts, and thus weakens those fronts." With Kherson offensive and preparation for Zaparozhya offensive Ukraine withdrew massive number of forces from northern Kharkov leaving it vulnerable to any small size of attack. Interestingly enough, there are confirmed reports that Russian military forces are concentrating large military forces at the border of Kharkov. 

Reading the Newyork times confession that with these attacks, " Ukraine is gaining lands and towns with no men residing" makes one think how they will sustain those regions. In reality, which that will make them vulnerable to any massive air or missile attack by Russia, since there is no civilian left to worry about "world public opinion". In addition, according to the news and videos, the new Russian mobilized forces of over 50,000 just entered to the region from Crimea.  

Ukraine is winning the "political" aspect of war, largely due to western media "headlines", narratives, and "headline oriented" Ukrainian offensives. But militarily Ukraine is not winning the war. There is no mention of the developments in Bakhmut region in the Western Media, a city losing of which will wide open the field all the way to the border of Donbass with heavy loss of man and equipment for Ukraine- estimated to be 50,000 but reduced substantially to support the offensives in the south. 

Considering these facts, there is no chance of Ukraine winning this war. It looks like the Russian government is so confident of the final result, they are minimizing the importance of this war, and/or leaving everyone, especially the US-NATO countries in suspense and wondering what is going on by remaining calm and silent. The recent successful drone attacks all the way to Kiew region already indicated that Ukraine air defense is not even close to the exaggerated condition by the western media. It is vulnerable to the attacks of superior Russian air force. Excuse of rainy, cloudy season for air force may be, for now, is legitimate. However, keeping silent longer and not taking any action sooner will ultimately have long lasting political consequences. Especially, if the war ends with an agreement before the capturing of Odessa (according to the news most military forces left to support other regions), Nikolayev, Dnieper, and Kharkov, or with some concessions from the four regions will have severe political consequences. That case would be the beginning of the end of Russia - politically.

It may well be a great military strategy they are implementing, but politically it is a very risky one. Especially now that the "special military operation" has lost its meaning and without any need to declare, the situation has transformed itself into invasion and military offense by a country, delaying the necessary action will be a humiliation on the part of Russia regardless of the end result in 3 months down the road. 

Erdogan A

October 6, 2022