Collective West- From fantasy and illusions to the realities; Ukraine, Gaza
“Russian strategy is not a short-term military strategy but a political strategy which has long term goals of expanding its “sphere of influence” and preventing the existence of NATO not only on its border but as far as possible, to the status of 1990s. That does require the dragging of this war all through the winter, invasion of all Russian speaking regions and even cities and towns and integrating them into Russian territory either with autonomous status or not. Odessa seems to be crucial for cutting Ukraine off Black Sea and ripping it from the US dependence and bringing into a dependent country to itself. This is a must in order for its overall strategy to work. As we have noted “considering the population and progressive ideological make up of Dnieper, Nikolayev, Odessa they are preparing themselves and the locals to further advance to these regions in order to force Ukraine bourgeoisie to an agreement much heavier than the one that they agreed in Istanbul.”
If we summarize
the strategies of both- Russia and US; One side is playing on the governments
through its “partners” and/or lackeys to keep them within or forced the new
ones into NATO. The other side is playing on the fear, suffering and discontent
of people with the expectation that they inevitably will rise up, protest, and
force their government for reforms and to the position of neutrality.
Long term Russian strategy is not limited to military and political aspects.
Despite all the “big lie” bombardment of Western Media, people will notice the
frustrated, aggressive, uncalculated actions of Ukraine and US, while Russia is
making itself looking like a “patient country “that acts only as a response to
aggressive acts.” War
in Ukraine; Now what? The prospects of the second phase and on?
All the developments, attitude of
the African and Latin American countries, together with most of the Asian
countries towards Russia confirm that its strategy, especially winning the
hearts and minds of other countries and changing their attitudes towards
Russia, is working. Latest statistics of
the civilian death toll in Gaza bombing in 25 days versus the civilian death
toll in Ukraine for the 563 days is significant enough to separate the attitude
of collective West and that of Russia as far as the “civilians” are concerned.
Western media echoing the Neo-Con’s
illusionary false narratives, fake news and exaggeration of Russian losses and
hiding the Ukraine’s losses kept on the claim that Ukraine is winning the war. Towards
the end of last year we have forecasted that the media coverage of Ukraine will
be minimized due to the more pressing world wide issues that the Neo-Cons will
be facing. Even before the Israel- Palestine conflict re-erupted, Ukraine issue
was already lost its importance for the Western Media. We said; “ Most
likely, "the war in Ukraine"
that occupies the daily news and commentaries of all media will gradually and
eventually disappear from the media headlines.” For the last couple of weeks, Western
Media started publishing articles admitting that the Ukraine is losing the war
and/or has no chance of winning the war.
It is no secret that the Neo-Cons
desert their puppets and proxies when they feel they come face to face with the
realities and look for a “face saving” exit. As usual they will find a
scape-goat (possibly Zelensky) for their defeat in the face of a humiliating
defeat with various distractions. One of
which now is the Israel Palestinian conflict.
Is the Israel's bombing and
murdering civilians really helping the Neo-Cons or making them more isolated
from the rest of the world? Looking at the voting in the UN, Arab summit,
reaction of the countries of the world, it seems it is not helping the Neo-Cons.
Neither it is helping to Israel but setting the foundation for its defeat.
Are the Neo-Cons really concerned
with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or primarily they are out to test the degree
of alliance between Iran, Russia ( and indirectly China)? Looking at the
military mobilization and placement of US forces, it seems that Neo-Cons are
out to attack and test Iran. A regional war is likely but the success of
Neo-Cons is not likely in such a regional war. A region in where the US
military has illegal presence in Iraq and Syria specifically.
The military buildup in the
region is more related in the core to the ongoing transformation of the unipolar
world to multipolar world and to the NeoCon’s counter measures. In particular,
however it is related to the fact that Ukraine is losing the war in a way that
may easily end up with a condition that Ukraine as a state as we know will no
longer exist. While the Neo-Cons with their fantasy having hard time in
believing the Ukrainian war is lost, there are quite large number of others in
the US and the West who admit it and trying to end it before it is too late. In
our early assessment we have noted that;
“Due to the
Western, especially that of US pressure not to sit for an agreement, it is most
likely that Kharkov (which already made an official agreement with Donbass),
Dnieper and Nikolayev is on the agenda and will be "liberated" in the
process. Depending on the developments during this phase, Odessa is a likely
choice to cut Ukraine from accessing to Black Sea.” Civil
War in Donbass- now and then, and most likely.
However, the West is under the
illusion that Russia will sit at a negotiation table. The fact is that at the
current conjuncture Russia does not have any reason to sit down for a
negotiation. Russia has no reason to stop the war and sit at a negotiation
table before (or at the negotiation table) without the removal of Kharkov, Dnieper,
Nikolaev and Odessa from the yoke of Ukraine. This fact also is admitted by so many Western military and political experts.
The NeoCon solution to this problem is a war against Iran which inevitably will
turn into a regional war. They expect that Russia will indirectly involve and
extend its forces to the region, which in return will slow down its progress in
Ukraine. It has some merits but still an illusion as far as coming out of such
a war as a “winner”.
Attacks to the illegal US military
facilities and men in Iraq and Syria is no where to be seen in Western Media
news. At best it is just mentioned briefly without reporting any casualties. It
is well known that US has the policy and practice of removing the casualties
(even the dead ones) to hospitals in
order to prevent reporting the death toll. If and when they die in a day or a
week or so, that is not reported. That
is a way to prevent the actual casualties to be known at the heat of the event.
The news however coming from the reliable military sources is that US military
casualties are rising in Iraq and Syria. Similarly the Israeli casualties in
Gaza is being filtered.
The fantasy of extending NATO to
the border of Russia, regime change in Russia, dividing, conquering, and
plundering Russia through a proxy war in Ukraine has been collapsed. Looking at
the developments in Balkans, the NATO alliance itself is in the process of collapsing.
The first phase of the Neo-Con idea of three-prong front against China and
Russia is collapsed. The second prong in the Middle East is hopeless in
political, economic, and military sense. They have spent decades to divide the Middle
East countries based on religious sects (Sunni- Shia, etc.) in order to create
animosity and conflict among themselves, yet with one event in Palestine, not
only they have paved the way for them to unite but all the people and
governments of Muslim countries to unite against them. Thus, they have already
lost the war in a political sense which most likely will bring about the defeat
in military sense.
Third prong, the Asia Pacific is
in the process. However, except Philippines which is a long time staunch proxy
of US, Taiwan is hopeless, for one the people of Taiwan largely against any war
and the results of proxy war in Ukraine strengthen their views against being a
proxy to a country thousands of miles away. Secondly, China is resolute on the
Taiwan issue and stresses that fact at each opportunity it gets, like Xi strongly
stressed that point at APEC summit meeting recently.
South Korea is no different than
Taiwan in so many ways with the additional impact of the North Korea on its
head. So is the Japan which is a couple miles away from Russia.
Are there any other countries in
East Asia willing to play for a US proxy? NED (National Endowment for Democracy) and its
NGO (Non Governmental Organizations) are very active, in Cambodia, Thailand,
Myanmar even in Laos and Vietnam. However, the only country they are being successful
lately to some degree is Myanmar. The
last two weeks have been disastrous for the Myanmar Junta against the NED
financed and supported so called “guerrillas”. (an article about Myanmar will follow)
As we can see the Neo-Con fantasy
is collapsing and will collapse entirely soon enough unless (even so) they go
as far for a nuclear war; a total
destruction of the West primarily and North. (Unlike the Western narrative, it
is not a total destruction of the “world”- World is not made up of West
primarily – an article will follow).
The transition from the unipolar
world to multipolar world, even though in its early stages, is largely completed.
In our early assessments of Ukraine war, we have stressed the fact that Russia
cannot be evaluated isolated from China and North Korea. Their existence
vitally depends on a strong alliance between them. With the unintentional help
of Neo-Cons, China, Russia, North Korea alliance is being reinforced and is
growing with the addition of new alliances from every part of the world. The fantasy
and illusion of the Western Neo-Cons for one world government has collapsed. A
concrete confirmation of the falsehood of Kautsky’s “ultra-imperialism” theory. A destructive blow
to the Bernsteinists, Kautskyists hiding behind the mask of Leninism and yet
still theorizing and supporting the unipolar world.
Erdogan A
November 18, 2023
Thailand
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