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Collective West- From fantasy and illusions to the realities; Ukraine, Gaza

In our initial analysis of the war in Ukraine we have noted that unlike Ukraine’s politically aimed tactics designed for the media headlines, Russia has a clearly defined strategy and was fighting the war in a way  to achieve its strategic goals. We stated that Russia will extend this war – a war of attrition rather than full scale war with tactics serving to the realization of those goals.

“Russian strategy is not a short-term military strategy but a political strategy which has long term goals of expanding its “sphere of influence” and preventing the existence of NATO not only on its border but as far as possible, to the status of 1990s. That does require the dragging of this war all through the winter, invasion of all Russian speaking regions and even cities and towns and integrating them into Russian territory either with autonomous status or not. Odessa seems to be crucial for cutting Ukraine off Black Sea and ripping it from the US dependence and bringing into a dependent country to itself. This is a must in order for its overall strategy to work.  As we have noted “considering the population and progressive ideological make up of Dnieper, Nikolayev, Odessa they are preparing themselves and the locals to further advance to these regions in order to force Ukraine bourgeoisie to an agreement much heavier than the one that they agreed in Istanbul.”

If we summarize the strategies of both- Russia and US; One side is playing on the governments through its “partners” and/or lackeys to keep them within or forced the new ones into NATO. The other side is playing on the fear, suffering and discontent of people with the expectation that they inevitably will rise up, protest, and force their government for reforms and to the position of neutrality.

Long term Russian strategy is not limited to military and political aspects. Despite all the “big lie” bombardment of Western Media, people will notice the frustrated, aggressive, uncalculated actions of Ukraine and US, while Russia is making itself looking like a “patient country “that acts only as a response to aggressive acts.” War in Ukraine; Now what? The prospects of the second phase and on?

All the developments, attitude of the African and Latin American countries, together with most of the Asian countries towards Russia confirm that its strategy, especially winning the hearts and minds of other countries and changing their attitudes towards Russia, is working.  Latest statistics of the civilian death toll in Gaza bombing in 25 days versus the civilian death toll in Ukraine for the 563 days is significant enough to separate the attitude of collective West and that of Russia as far as the “civilians” are concerned.

Western media echoing the Neo-Con’s illusionary false narratives, fake news and exaggeration of Russian losses and hiding the Ukraine’s losses kept on the claim that Ukraine is winning the war. Towards the end of last year we have forecasted that the media coverage of Ukraine will be minimized due to the more pressing world wide issues that the Neo-Cons will be facing. Even before the Israel- Palestine conflict re-erupted, Ukraine issue was already lost its importance for the Western Media. We said; “ Most likely,  "the war in Ukraine" that occupies the daily news and commentaries of all media will gradually and eventually disappear from the media headlines.” For the last couple of weeks, Western Media started publishing articles admitting that the Ukraine is losing the war and/or has no chance of winning the war.

It is no secret that the Neo-Cons desert their puppets and proxies when they feel they come face to face with the realities and look for a “face saving” exit. As usual they will find a scape-goat (possibly Zelensky) for their defeat in the face of a humiliating defeat with various distractions.  One of which now is the Israel Palestinian conflict.

Is the Israel's bombing and murdering civilians really helping the Neo-Cons or making them more isolated from the rest of the world? Looking at the voting in the UN, Arab summit, reaction of the countries of the world, it seems it is not helping the Neo-Cons. Neither it is helping to Israel but setting the foundation for its defeat.

Are the Neo-Cons really concerned with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or primarily they are out to test the degree of alliance between Iran, Russia ( and indirectly China)? Looking at the military mobilization and placement of US forces, it seems that Neo-Cons are out to attack and test Iran. A regional war is likely but the success of Neo-Cons is not likely in such a regional war. A region in where the US military has illegal presence in Iraq and Syria specifically.

The military buildup in the region is more related in the core to the ongoing transformation of the unipolar world to multipolar world and to the NeoCon’s counter measures. In particular, however it is related to the fact that Ukraine is losing the war in a way that may easily end up with a condition that Ukraine as a state as we know will no longer exist. While the Neo-Cons with their fantasy having hard time in believing the Ukrainian war is lost, there are quite large number of others in the US and the West who admit it and trying to end it before it is too late. In our early assessment we have noted that;

“Due to the Western, especially that of US pressure not to sit for an agreement, it is most likely that Kharkov (which already made an official agreement with Donbass), Dnieper and Nikolayev is on the agenda and will be "liberated" in the process. Depending on the developments during this phase, Odessa is a likely choice to cut Ukraine from accessing to Black Sea.” Civil War in Donbass- now and then, and most likely.

However, the West is under the illusion that Russia will sit at a negotiation table. The fact is that at the current conjuncture Russia does not have any reason to sit down for a negotiation. Russia has no reason to stop the war and sit at a negotiation table before (or at the negotiation table) without the removal of Kharkov, Dnieper, Nikolaev and Odessa from the yoke of Ukraine. This fact also is admitted by so  many Western military and political experts. The NeoCon solution to this problem is a war against Iran which inevitably will turn into a regional war. They expect that Russia will indirectly involve and extend its forces to the region, which in return will slow down its progress in Ukraine. It has some merits but still an illusion as far as coming out of such a war as a “winner”.  

Attacks to the illegal US military facilities and men in Iraq and Syria is no where to be seen in Western Media news. At best it is just mentioned briefly without reporting any casualties. It is well known that US has the policy and practice of removing the casualties (even the dead ones)  to hospitals in order to prevent reporting the death toll. If and when they die in a day or a week or so, that is not reported.  That is a way to prevent the actual casualties to be known at the heat of the event. The news however coming from the reliable military sources is that US military casualties are rising in Iraq and Syria. Similarly the Israeli casualties in Gaza is being filtered.

The fantasy of extending NATO to the border of Russia, regime change in Russia, dividing, conquering, and plundering Russia through a proxy war in Ukraine has been collapsed. Looking at the developments in Balkans, the NATO alliance itself is in the process of collapsing. The first phase of the Neo-Con idea of three-prong front against China and Russia is collapsed. The second prong in the Middle East is hopeless in political, economic, and military sense. They have spent decades to divide the Middle East countries based on religious sects (Sunni- Shia, etc.) in order to create animosity and conflict among themselves, yet with one event in Palestine, not only they have paved the way for them to unite but all the people and governments of Muslim countries to unite against them. Thus, they have already lost the war in a political sense which most likely will bring about the defeat in military sense.

Third prong, the Asia Pacific is in the process. However, except Philippines which is a long time staunch proxy of US, Taiwan is hopeless, for one the people of Taiwan largely against any war and the results of proxy war in Ukraine strengthen their views against being a proxy to a country thousands of miles away. Secondly, China is resolute on the Taiwan issue and stresses that fact at each opportunity it gets, like Xi strongly stressed that point at APEC summit meeting recently.

South Korea is no different than Taiwan in so many ways with the additional impact of the North Korea on its head. So is the Japan which is a couple miles away from Russia.

Are there any other countries in East Asia willing to play for a US proxy?  NED (National Endowment for Democracy) and its NGO (Non Governmental Organizations) are very active, in Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar even in Laos and Vietnam. However, the only country they are being successful  lately to some degree is Myanmar. The last two weeks have been disastrous for the Myanmar Junta against the NED financed and supported so called “guerrillas”.  (an article about Myanmar will follow)

As we can see the Neo-Con fantasy is collapsing and will collapse entirely soon enough unless (even so) they go as far  for a nuclear war; a total destruction of the West primarily and North. (Unlike the Western narrative, it is not a total destruction of the “world”- World is not made up of West primarily – an article will follow).

The transition from the unipolar world to multipolar world, even though in its early stages, is largely completed. In our early assessments of Ukraine war, we have stressed the fact that Russia cannot be evaluated isolated from China and North Korea. Their existence vitally depends on a strong alliance between them. With the unintentional help of Neo-Cons, China, Russia, North Korea alliance is being reinforced and is growing with the addition of new alliances from every part of the world. The fantasy and illusion of the Western Neo-Cons for one world government has collapsed. A concrete confirmation of the falsehood of Kautsky’s  “ultra-imperialism” theory. A destructive blow to the Bernsteinists, Kautskyists hiding behind the mask of Leninism and yet still theorizing and supporting the unipolar world.

Erdogan A

November 18, 2023


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