Riots in Iran; another failure and defeat of US-Israel plot
In numerous articles I have argued that all the pretexts against Iran (and other countries) outlined by US-Israel in order to justify their covert and overt military actions were false. Their purpose was and is a regime change in Iran and possibly (not that possible due to the high likely oppositions from the neighboring countries) Lebanization- Balkanization of Iran. Neo-Cons in general and of US in particular living in a fantasy land divorced from the realities of the current world. They vehemently deny the transformation of world order from unipolar to multipolar one where they cannot ride their horse at will without any opposition or resistance from the rest of the world. The decline, defeats and frustration thereof makes them much more and blatantly aggressive at every step of which they shoot themselves from the foot.
In Iran specific, despite all their narratives of “declaring victory over defeat” on the 12 day war , it is clear for any sane and critical minded people that US-Israel-West lost the war against Iran. They have never stopped their planning of regime change in Iran. They have realized that uprising during bombing Iran was a wishful thinking and false expectation. They had to work on that “expectation” to be realized at or during their second attack. The expectation required additional work like creating extreme economic conditions in Iran that could fuel the protests, communication lines for coordination -like Starlink, and as historically proven numerous times from Libya to Georgia, readiness for hijacking the protests, creating chaos, and unleashing their proxies for a civil war which would keep Iran’s military busy with and unprepared for any new military attack by US-Israel.
As I have noted, I do not believe in coincidences. Trump made an official state visit to Israel on December 27, 2025 probably to be briefed on the “works” in Iran in order to schedule the second military attack. Protests in Iran started on December 28, 2025. According to the Kurdish media and organizations , the coalition of seven major Kurdish political parties has been instrumental in organizing and guiding regional dissent. Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan participated in the protests and publicly announced its support on December 29, 2025. Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (PDKI/KDPI) participated in the protests and made the official call on December 30, 2025. Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK) participated in the protests made its public announcement on January 1,2026.
Again, according to some Kurdish Media outlets, by January 8, 2026, at least 50 Kurdish cities participated in a massive protests and general strike. Shopkeepers in provinces like Ilam, Kermanshah, and Lorestan shuttered businesses in a coordinated act of defiance. Kurdish-majority cities, particularly Malekshahi in Ilam province, became riot hotspots. Armed Kurdish groups in Kermanshah announced the formation of "assault units" to resist Iranian security forces, signaling an escalation into armed self-defense in some regions. Armed conflicts, riots, killings, destructions speeded, a chaos reigned, but contrary to Western Media narratives, not all over Iran, but specific regions. ( In other words, as I had warned on my numerous articles, Kurdish organizations were again playing at the wrong horse at the expense of their own people. )
So, everything was going according to the desires and most likely the “plans” of US-West. However, due to their fantasy and delusion, they have overlooked two things; Iran’s elites desperation, and the existential importance of Iran for Russia and China.
Iran’s uncompromising overly self-confident self-reliance cultural stand
Whether you like, dislike, or hate Iran’s governing elite, any informed objective person cannot deny the fact that Iran is an ‘independent country” to a degree that you can only see in socialist countries. Especially when it comes to military-defense issues they have been uncompromising even to the offers of assistance. One can categorize that as arrogance, delusional or even ignorance, but that is a proven fact. They have rejected the assistance offers from China and Russia before the first US-Israel military attack. Looking at the latest developments, we can see a softening in that attitude.
Iran does not have the technology and knowhow to jam satellite signals like Starlink. It looks like the end of “riots” has come about due to the jamming and locating the Starlink terminals which were being used for communication, coordination by the ‘rioters’. The jamming technology and knowhow turned the lifeline of rioters, the Starlink, into their capturer and executer, the fundamental means through which the riots have been suppressed and subsided or more like ended.
Which countries have such technology other than US-Israel? China and Russia.
It seems that Iran’s elite have softened its policy and asked for help on the face of riots out of desperation. It is not known yet if both China and Russia helped with the technology and sent their expert-operators to Iran, and we probably will not know -at least from official channels- for some time. **
Existential importance of Iran for Russia and China
Iran, both in economic and military sense, has an existential importance for Russia and China. Iran, to a large degree is no different from Ukraine for Russian security on one side, and economically on the other due to its being an important trade route- mainly the Persian Golf. Iran’s fragmentation or a regime change with a pro-US-Israel government carries extreme risks for Russia and China. That’s why neither Russia nor China remain on the side in the face of US-Israel plots. The degree of their indirect involvement is totally dependent on the changes in the uncompromising attitude of Iran’s elite.
Before we talk about the “possibility of China’s assistance “ on the subject of the currency crash and high inflation in order to stabilize the Iranian economy and its acceptance by Iran, It is necessary to analyze and talk about the core reason for the start of the protests.
The monetary and financial policy of Pezeshkian and the external manipulation of Iranian currency and inflation in the country.
In general, under normal conditions without external interference, the central banks can adjust interest rates to control inflation. Lowering interest rates can stimulate borrowing and spending, potentially increasing inflation, while raising them can help curb inflation. However, due to the heavy involvement of US-Israel-West ( who are experts in manipulation of finance and currencies) in Iran’s economic life, the Iranian central bank faced significant challenges in controlling inflation and stabilizing the currency. Despite efforts to intervene in foreign exchange markets to stabilize their currency by buying or selling foreign currencies in order to tighten monetary policy, the rial continued to depreciate rapidly, exacerbated by capital flight, and reduced foreign exchange reserves. So, they weren’t able to prevent rapid outflows of foreign currency. Which in turn the set inflation targets by Central bank to manage price stability failed.
The country was grappling with high inflation rates, which were driven by a combination of external factors (such as global commodity prices) and internal issues like currency controls and sanctions. This led to a loss of confidence in the rial. The high likely involvement of US-Israel controlled financial institutions and investors engagement in currency speculation exacerbated the devaluation of Iranian currency. The rapid devaluation of the rial had a direct impact on the cost of essential goods, particularly food. With prices rising sharply—reaching an annual rate of 72% in December—the economic burden on ordinary citizens intensified, leading to widespread discontent. This combination of soaring inflation and food prices triggered mass protests across Iran, reflecting frustrations with the government's economic policies and their impact on their life.
Start of the protests and rapid change of its character
It is expected that the economic situation in Iran with high inflation rates, currency devaluation, and food shortages would lead to spontaneous protests. That’s why the protests were initially focused on economic grievances but not widespread for the conscious consideration and suspicion on the part of the rest of the people that US-Israel is preparing an imminent attack to Iran.
The protests have quickly expanded to include demands for political reform and human rights through the participation of various existing anti-government groups, especially that of Kurdish organizations in Iran. Their involvement added a layer of complexity to the protests, for they have different agendas and motivations compared to initial protestors. With the indirect involvement of external actors influencing the situation through various means; supplying Starlink terminals, weapons the protests transformed into “riots” in where guns and all kind of weapons used, lynching, shooting, decapitating, destruction have become widespread.
The riots have been stopped (or minimized, deescalated, became controllable-whatever the case and narrative may be) but it is still alive in the minds of Iranian people.
Keeping in mind the recent history of Iran and its uncompromising stand on such events, I had forecasted that a large summary executions would be held. The declaration of Iranian government that the “executions will not be carried out” is actually another indication of the involvement of Russia and China in Iran’s decisions. Such a public execution may have had deterrence affect on the people in general but it could also become a play in the hands of US-Israel to reignite the fire of “riots” and give another justification for them to attack Iran. It seems that China and Russia with their extensive political knowledge helping the Iranian’s to understand that nothing is only “internal affair” but also international , wrong decisions can isolate a country from the rest and give more incentives and justification to those who want to destroy you.
Although he flip flaps all the time, reading Trumps commentaries on Reza Pahlavi and his statement of “delaying the decision on military strike on Iran” may be considered that Israel-US is rethinking their second attack on Iran due to the fail of “riots”.
Contrary to the myths and fantasies, the reality is that neither Israel nor US has the military capability to defeat Iran decisively. Neither their economies nor their military industry and military production can sustain a protracted war against Iran. US (and of course Europe) has depleted its military arsenal to a critical level. A protracted war against Iran would be a suicidal act if it is not combined and heavily relied on the opposition in Iran. They need domestic and/ or neighboring proxies to fight and die for their political aims. The riots are deescalated if not totally taken under control and defeated. No proxies will act by themselves without a decisive support of US-Israel. And that possibility is looking very bleak.
So, US-Israel has failed and defeated once more against Iran.
What to expect.
As I have stated above, Iran’s attitude to the offers of help from Russia and China will be decisive for the next developments on the issue. Especially at the current situation, the problem of currency crash and inflation, China can easily and without any burden to them help Iran to curb these problems and help Iran’s economy to stabilize and develop. With a stabilized economy, proxies will have hard time in finding alliances even within their ranks. With no internal proxies, Iran will remain safe from any external decisive attacks like invasion.
China is dumping the US-Bonds (Treasury Bonds) at historically low rates with loss. Considering the value of Iran’s currency, even an insignificant fraction of that loss can save Iran’s currency, bring the inflation down and stabilize Iran’s economy. The question is whether Iran will go for it or not.
Either way, at least for now, we have witnessed another failure and defeat on the side of declining empire.
Erdogan A
January 16, 2026
**. It has been reported that the Starlink terminals have been located for the arrests of thousands but not all of them have been jammed. By reengineering, more like hacking some, they have used the terminals to listen and locate more users and people involved. That's why the number of the arrests said to be in thousands.
Note; one of the main reason I wrote this article is the liberal, "politically correct" liberal-opportunist approach of some parties and organisations in Turkiye to the protests and riots in Iran. Marxist Leninists do not hide the truth just because it may hurt the "feelings" of some supporters. That is called liberalism which is the worse kind of opportunism. Telling the truth is a revolutionary act, hiding them is a counter-revolutionary act because it is deception of people.
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