Myanmar ; the fallacy of “Freedom fighters” versus Junta.

Elections in the midst of the power struggle between Bamar NUG and Bamar Junta and the place of Ethnic Army Organizations (EAOs) in this conflict.. 

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Introduction

An objective analyzer with critical mind  does not rely on US-Western sources for his search for the truth on a given issue. He  seeks, studies and speak of the objective realities and objective truth to expose the manipulative, false narratives presented to be the truth. He  recognises and relies on objective sources independent of  subjectivity to seek and determine the objective reality which alone is capable of giving us objective truth. The recognition of objective truth is essential in order to make objective analyses on any given subject. General knowledge consists mainly of relative truths if not manipulated false one. Relative truth is a step on the way to mastering the absolute truth in general and objective truth in any given particular. " Absolute truth are historically conditional, but the existence of this truth is unconditional...as in all other areas of science, one should reason dialectically, that is, not assume our knowledge is ready and unchanged, but analyze how knowledge comes from ignorance, how incomplete, inaccurate knowledge becomes more complete and more accurate." (1) 

Debunking the US-West narratives

A look at to the Ethnic groups in Myanmar

In order to understand the fallacies of the US-West, one has to understand the historical and concrete conditions and situation in Myanmar. Primarily one has to understand that Myanmar is a country made up of numerous ethnic groups largest one of which is the Bamar (Burmese) ethnic group. Historically dominant Bamar  government officially recognizes 135 "ethnic groups-minorities” (I am not categorizing them as  “nations" for not all fit scientific-political  definition of nation). Already,  many small ethnic groups consider themselves as the sub-groups of larger ones.

The major ethnic groups with their estimated populations and related information is as following; 

Are all ethnic armies in official alliance with the US-Backed PDF?

Despite all the US-Western narratives to draw such a picture, the clearcut answer to this question is “no”. The relationship is not a widespread, a unified, official alliance but a complex, evolving patchwork of “tactical cooperation”.  Considering the fact that most ethnic armies are focused within their own boundaries, they have no reason to have an alliance with the PDF other than for the exceptional situations that may arise.

US-Western narrative presents the arm wing of Washington based NUG government, PDF, as the “leading and dominant force” of all the EAO (Ethnic Armed Organization) forces. Although the US-CIA, with its vast experience formed the leadership of National Unity Government (NUG) with the addition of people from Karen, Kachin and Chin, the majority is Bamar (Burman). PDF leadership and majority fighters are made up of Bamar and their fighting region is primarily within the central Myanmar, Bamar region. As I will try to expose, the “anti-junta war”,  in its core, in fact,  is a war between the two leading (military and civil) groups of Bamar elites. 

The Bamar- Myanmar Civil War - in particular

The coup of February 2021 was a consequence of  “intra-elite, intra-Bamar conflict”. The Tatmadaw (a Bamar-dominated institution) removed the NLD (a Bamar-dominated political party). The resulting resistance was born first in “Yangon and Mandalay”, led by Bamar youth, civil servants, and professionals. The primary battle for the “political soul and future governance structure of the Bamar state” is between these two factions. The NUG's leadership and the PDF's national-level command are predominantly Bamar, and their fight is to reclaim the central state.

Geopolitical aspect of civil war in general;  US-China Competition

A critical minded person has to look beyond the surface-level narrative to identify the core engines of the conflict. The “intra-Bamar civil war” in Myanmar cannot be analyzed without seeing its embedment within the US-China “strategic competition”.

The conflict between the elites in Myanmar that brought about the Junta  was a final proxy friction point. The Junta is reliant on China for diplomatic cover, border stability, and a vast array of trade (including dual-use items). It is also now fundamentally dependent on Russia for arms, jets, and fuel. China and Russia's support is what keeps the junta financially and militarily afloat.

The NUG seeks and receives political recognition, humanitarian aid, and support from the US, EU, and other Western allies. They frame their fight in the language of “democracy versus dictatorship”, fitting neatly into a Western geopolitical narrative. While the scale is not comparable to Ukraine, the alignment of interests is clear. A Beijing/Moscow-backed military junta versus a Washington/Brussels-backed political opposition-in-exile, fighting for control of a strategic country at the crossroads of South and Southeast Asia. 

The question of Legitimacy of Junta

Grassroots Peace Movements" as a Western Liberal Expectation such as that of a Ghandian or "Color Revolution" style are “culturally and politically specific template.” In a context where the state has monopolized violent coercion for generations and civil society is fractured along ethnic and class lines, the primary "grassroots" response is not public protest but “survival strategies” like flight, paying bribes, silent compliance, or joining the armed group that claims to defend one's specific community. The desire for peace in the masses is real, but it manifests as exhaustion and localized coping, not as a unified political movement with clear terms.

The question of “the  legitimacy” of  Elections

The hypocrisy and selective application of legitimacy by Western media and governments, separate the principle of popular participation from the geopolitical narrative that often defines its value.  Over 13 million voters indicates a significant  popular participation. This is a tangible, numerical fact that represents a substantial portion of the population willing to engage with the process. The involvement of parties from Mon, Shan, Pa-O, Kachin, and Kayin states suggests that not all ethnic political actors are boycotting. Some are choosing to work within the junta's framework. The act of holding elections and forming a civilian parliament, even under the junta's 2008 constitution, represents a formal return to a constitutional, non-martial law system.

Election and the results

However, the 55% national turnout and its Bamar composition is mathematically and politically astute for the logical fact the Bamar majority is + 70% of the population, voting was largely cancelled in many non-Bamar majority areas, Major EAOs (KNU, KIA, etc.) and communities boycotted or were prevented from voting. The logical conclusion from this is that: If the national turnout was 55%, and ethnic regions had severely depressed or zero turnout, then the turnout in Bamar-majority regions (Sagaing, Magway, Yangon, Mandalay, Bago, Ayeyarwady) must have been very high—likely 70% or more—to achieve that average. As far as the conflict between Bamar NUG and Junta is concerned, this actually translates to a "disastrous defeat of the PDF" in its own Bamar region.

Conclusion

Major geopolitical events, especially those leading to civil conflict and potential regime change, are rarely accidents of history. Economic and political sanctions, financial pressure, NGO networks, media narratives, and agent cultivation are all well-documented modern paradigm for applying strategic pressure to states either in order to change the government with a proxy one or fragment - Balkanize  the country into easily manageable small  countries.

Long before the 2021 coup, Myanmar had a deeply embedded ecosystem of international NGOs, media development programs, and civil society networks funded by Western governments and foundations. US-West organizations like the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) have funded Burmese media, labor, and advocacy groups for decades. This built a cadre of individuals and organizations aligned with liberal "democratic" norms and connected to international systems.

Notes

The violent conflict in Manipur between the majority “Meitei” and the minority “Kuki-Zo” has direct cross-border dimensions.  Tens of thousands of “Chin people” from Myanmar have fled the post-coup violence and military airstrikes into Mizoram and Manipur since 2021. This influx has altered local demographics and heightened tensions, particularly in Manipur where the Meitei community views the Kuki-Zo (and their refugee kin) with suspicion. The Meitei leadership strongly alleges that the conflict in Manipur is fueled by "illegal immigration" of Kuki-Chin people from Myanmar, a claim used to justify demands for territorial separation and stricter border controls. This frames a local ethnic conflict within a transnational narrative.

Erdogan A

February 9, 2026