Putin’s speech ; its aim and implications as a peace offer followed by a serious warning.
It has been confirmed that, It was signed by 78 (57 of which is European) out of the 92 countries present (out of 160 invited) at the forum. Armenia, Bahrain, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Jordan, Libya, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, (surprisingly) Thailand, the UAE, and Mauritius refused to sign the document. Considering the preceding approaches, Hungary, Turkiye and Serbia signed not because they agreed but because they believed it was the “politically correct” action to take. Katar is the only Middle Eastern Country signed the communique. In Latin America, Pro-Israel, Pro-West Argentine is the only large country signed it. Almost all of the major countries outside of Europe either did not attend the summit or did not sign the communique.
Countering this “Peace Summit-which
was not”* Russian President Vladimir
Putin laid out his terms for a ceasefire with Ukraine at a meeting at the
Russian Foreign Ministry on June 14.
“Today, we are
presenting another concrete and genuine peace proposal. If Kiev and
Western capitals reject it again, as they have done before, then ultimately, it
becomes their responsibility, both political and moral, for the ongoing
bloodshed. Clearly, the situation on the front lines will continue to evolve unfavorably
for the Kiev regime, altering the conditions necessary for initiating
negotiations.
Let me
underscore the key point: the essence of our proposal is not a temporary truce
or ceasefire, as the West might prefer, to allow the Kiev regime to recover,
rearm, and prepare for a new offensive. I repeat: we are not discussing
freezing the conflict, but its definitive resolution.
And I will
reiterate: once Kiev agrees to the course of action proposed today,
including the full withdrawal of its troops from the DPR, LPR, the Zaporizhya
and Kherson regions, and begins this process earnestly, we are prepared to
commence negotiations promptly without delay.”
Putin’s peace offer message is
directed mainly to the Global South, not the US-West.
As we predicted in our assessment
two years ago, winning the hearts and minds of people and the leaders of the
rest of the world is one of the important part of Russia’ strategic goals. In
the eyes of the world public, Russia is offering peace with concrete conditions
based on the realities of the war on the ground. Whereas West-Ukraine playing games and coming up with peace conditions
detached from the current realities on the ground. That is the perception what
Russia wants to create world wide and they are justified in doing so since they
come up with concrete and logical peace offers.
Is it really a serious offer? Yes it is in its context. And no, it is not in the sense that Russia already knows that it will not be accepted by the US-West. (Regardless, it is a publicly recorded, concrete, detailed peace offer)
Peace offer is an extended version
of Istanbul agreement with the additional conditions, or more detailed and are
tougher than before, reflecting a new political landscape. The Istanbul talks
were about recognizing the two Donbass republics only, while now Moscow
conditions that the outcome of the 2022
referendum be recognized.
Again, as we have predicted in our assessments, the longer the war lasts, the tougher the “peace” conditions will be in a way that will turn the Istanbul agreement into a great opportunity that is missed.
The fact is that, even it is considered, while West-Ukraine debating the peace offer conditions, it looks like Luhansk region will already be liberated in a couple weeks. The other region, Donetsk will be liberated within four to six months. So, for Russia , the offered peace conditions will already be achieved without the peace.
Trying to make a sense of Russia’s
chess game like tactics and unpredictable moves, one cannot say what is next,
where the next offensive move will be, or if they will make their all-out move.
Will it be Kherson? Or East Kharkov? No one can predict because Russia changes
the tactics based on the existing and altered conditions not only in the region
specific but also international developments. Either way, Russia has already
won the war in the sense that they have the control over it’s duration and
speed. That is why, in the case of no agreement,
Ukraine will lose more territories; Kharkov, Dnieper, Nikolaev and most
likely, as most likely the last one, Odessa.
So, the latter, future peace offers will be much more extended
versions of previous extended version based on the concrete realities of
the war-situation and liberated areas.
Peace offer followed by a serious warning
Putin, following his peace offer,
made comment on US-Wests' supplying weapons to be used against Russia;
"Our
adversaries, meanwhile, continue to supply the neo-Nazi Kiev regime with money,
weapons and intelligence information, allow - and, effectively, encourage - the
use of modern Western weapons and equipment to deliver strikes on the Russian
territory, aiming at obviously civilian targets in most cases," the
Russian president lamented. "They are threatening to send their troops to
Ukraine. Furthermore, they are trying to wear out Russia’s economy with more
new sanctions and fuel socio-political tension inside the country,"
“Supplying
weapons to a conflict zone is always a bad thing…Especially if this is linked
to the fact that those who supply them are not only delivering weapons but
managing them.”
““If they
consider it possible to deliver such weapons to the combat zone to launch
strikes on our territory and create problems for us, why don’t we have the
right to supply weapons of the same type to some regions of the world where
they can be used to launch strikes on sensitive facilities of the countries?”
Who is this message directed to? Aside from being a strong warning
to the US-West, again, it is directed to the people and the leadership cadres of the
countries of the rest of the world.
Lavrov clearly stated ; “We don’t
care about what the West thinks, whether they trust or believe us.”
Combining his words with that of Putin, that literally means “supporting
all the anti-American (anti Western) forces world wide where American bases are, where
there is a conflict that American forces are directly or indirectly involved,
like the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Latin America. It is a message to the leadership
of anti-American, anti-West forces that Russia will be supporting them.
It is a time when even the US-West
ex-colonels, ex-CIA analysts, expert US academicians clearly state that the
US-West has no power to wage a winning war against Iran- never mind China and/or
Russia. America who cannot afford a direct war against China or Russia or
against both, may have to face forces allover the world if Russia (and China) starts
arming American-Western foes. This is a serious threat, actually a taste of its own
practice for the US/West.
US-West has been bluffing with a
losing hand for the last three years or so. It seems that neither Russia nor
China is taking its bluff serious for they have stronger hands.
Will America leave Ukraine/West
to its fate in case of Russia’s (China’s) call of American bluff with a losing
hand? Most likely it will be a repetition of Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq without
a direct war.
Western Media and analysists bring the question of nuclear war
forward. I don’t believe the likelihood of an all out strategic nuclear war for it will be the end of Europe
first and foremost and of capitalism in general wit the vast destruction of the
world. The world is not being ruled by the “bureaucrats or military generals”
but by the capitalists holding their (military and civil bureaucrats') strings in their hands. A nuclear war
is not and will not be in the interests of capitalists as long as they remain
to be among the most likely victims of such a war.
As a conclusion, the peace offer of Russia countering
the “Peace Summit Stunt” of Zelensky, and warning of Putin did and will play an
affective role in shaping the minds and attitudes of everyone.
Russia is accomplishing its
strategic goals step by step and does not feel in need of hastiness. For
the most part, Russia (and China for that matter) should be grateful to the
exceptionalist, arrogant, aggressive, interventionist policy of the US that made them stronger both
economically and politically.
Erdogan A
June 18, 2024
Thailand
* Ukraine Peace Summit; a
political stunt to legitimize Zelensky as the leader.
Zelensky's illusionary claim that
summit is a "history being made" is totally disconnected from the
realities, as the headlines of the Western Media claim of "further step
toward peace" is a fallacy.
A peace conference without the
belligerent country and without the attendance of major government heads can
only be a show, a show of a comedian.
Zelensky previously had a half a
dozen "peace conference" since 2022. It started with 5 point, and
then 10 point, now 3 point plan.
The Five Point plan was on
September 2022 at the UN, 10 point plan was between November 2022 and January
2024- five different places. None of the
summits had any affect , brought any solutions to the problem because some of
the "points" were imaginary and without any substance in relation to
the war.
Ten point plan was calling for
the capitulation of Russia. A demand can only be forwarded by someone who lives
in a fantasy land disconnected from the realities on the war-ground. His
fantasy at that time was that the Ukraine's summer offensive will be successful
and force Russia to accept the plan. Realities however turned out to be
different. Ukraine's summer offensive was a disastrous failure where Russia
gained more victories on the ground.
Anticipation of success is shattered by the realities of the world in
general and concrete realities on the ground in particular. With his denial of
the facts he stubbornly kept on presenting the same plan due to his illusion
reinforced by the US-West.
Waking up from his illusions, or
most likely with the "advice" of the US-West, Zelensky dropped 7 of
the 10 point plan. If Russia was invited (although highly unlikely that Russia
would have attended) Russia would have come to an agreement with the remaining
three points . 1-) Radiation and Nuclear safety, 2-) Nuclear security 3-)
Release of prisoners and deported persons.
That is why they have excluded
the main party to the war from the summit, because the summit had nothing to
do with the peace but aimed at 'legitimizing " Zelensky as the leader of
Ukraine. Probably, in addition, it
aimed to test the waters and see the current status of the geopolitical
alignment.
Yes, it has been a "history
in making", another history of "stunt" for the continuation
of a comedian as the leading actor on
the stage.
As a conclusion the Peace Summit
(which was not) as a stunt has failed miserably. The play put on the stage with
the comedian Zelensky in the leading role did not impress any audience
including the countries of the West.
It was not a "history in
making" but a lousy theatrical play in making.
June 16, 2024
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