On Tensions Between Iran and Azerbaijan - Rybar's Analysis
Show of Power
From October 17 to 19, in the provinces of East Azerbaijan and Ardabil in the north-west of Iran, the exercises of the ground forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) under the code name "Mighty Iran" were held.
During the training, various scenarios for the development of events were worked out, including a full-scale armed conflict. For the first time in practice, the IRGC units crossed the Araks River, which separates Iran and Azerbaijan.
In the exercise, the IRGC military personnel involved launchers of Fateh, MLRS HM20, Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 missile systems, 155-mm HM41 howitzers, Gvozdika self-propelled guns, T-72S tanks, BMP-2, Mi-171, Bell 214A and AH-1J, as well as various UAVs.
October 22, in the province of Western Azerbaijan on the border with Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan, exercises began with the participation of 164 infantry brigades of the Iranian Army.
The assault units of the Iranian ground forces have worked out a scenario for conducting a local border conflict using army aviation and heavy artillery, as well as fighting in urban areas.
What is the purpose of the exercises?
Despite the statements of the Iranian command about the planned nature of the exercises in the north-west of Iran, they are a direct demonstration of the seriousness of the republic's intentions to protect its interests in the borders.
We are talking about the policy of Azerbaijan under the auspices of the Turks in the South Caucasus. The Iranian government has repeatedly warned the Azerbaijani government that the forceful change of borders in the region is a "red line" for Iran.
The stumbling block in relations between Iran and Azerbaijan is the issue of the Zangezur corridor under construction, which in theory should connect the Azerbaijani enclave of Nakhichevan with the main territory of the country and provide a land route to Turkey.
The catch is that the road should run along the current border of Iran in the south of the Syunik region of Armenia. Iran fears that the new transport route may be used in the future as a pretext for blocking the Iran-Armenia-Georgia-Russia route.
How will the road cut off Iran from Armenia?
By itself, the transport artery does not close the borders of Iran and Armenia. However, its status is still not legally fixed. The Azerbaijanis want an extraterritorial status for their corridor, that is, to secure legal control over a section of Armenian lands in the south.
In Yerevan, they are not ready to do this, fearing the subsequent seizure of territories and demanding customs control at the entrance and exit. In Baku, they intend to open the message by any means, without looking back at the consequences under the auspices of the Turks.
What is feared in Iran?
The opening of the Zangezur corridor will provide a direct land route for Turkey to the Caucasus, which will allow the Turkish leadership to strengthen its presence in the region.
The Iranian authorities fear the spread of the idea of pan-Turkism in the northwestern part of Iran, where ethnic Azerbaijanis and Turks historically live.
Against the backdrop of ongoing protests in Iran and the incitement of interethnic hatred, the issue of eradicating separatism has become of paramount importance for the Iranian government.
Some Azerbaijani media even launched an information campaign in support of the demonstrators, calling their speeches "the desire to return to Azerbaijan."
In addition, the opening of the Zangezur corridor will allow the Azerbaijani government to gain control over the distribution of water resources in the Araks river basin.
Now the sources of the Araks are controlled by Turkey and Armenia, while Iran and Azerbaijan are the countries of the lower reaches of the river. The creation of a route in the south of the Syunik region of Armenia will make the Iranian leadership dependent on another Turkic country.
Given the possibility of a drought in the region due to climate change and dams being built by the Turkish authorities in northern Iraq and eastern Turkey, the problem of water supply is a serious threat in the future for Iran.
How serious are Iran's intentions?
Threats and pressure on the administration of Ilham Aliyev through "flexing muscles" is a completely normal thing for Iran. However, the current tension in the region is fundamentally different from previous situations.
The loud words of the Iranian authorities no longer frightened anyone. The creation of a new transport route has become real. The ongoing unrest, mainly in the northwestern part of Iran, demonstrated the gaps in the system of organization of power and created the preconditions for a full-fledged attempt to overthrow the current regime.
Tehran understood this and realized that it would no longer be possible to achieve its goals with ordinary statements and threats.
The practice of forcing the Araks River by the IRGC troops right under the noses of the Azerbaijani border guards, as well as the opening of the Iranian consulate in Kapan, are the first really serious steps confirming Iran's intentions to firmly defend its interests.
The IRGC itself, according to the doctrine, is used for actions outside the country. And the regular training of Iranian Army units near the borders of Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan is a signal of readiness to use their potential.
Greater Iran concept
Attempts by Azerbaijani information wars to kindle an interethnic conflict in Iran did not go unnoticed by the Iranian leadership. Representatives of the Iranian authorities began to play a similar card already on Azerbaijani territory.
Now Iranian media and Telegram channels are actively promoting information about the desire of the inhabitants of the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic and the historical region of Talyshstan in the southeast of Azerbaijan to become part of Iran.
Since October 22, more than a dozen Telegram channels have been created covering events in Nakhichevan, the cities of Masalli and Jalilabad and other settlements in Azerbaijani regions.
According to Iranian media, every day many residents in Azerbaijan go to rallies and protests, calling for a referendum and return to Iran. Power structures detained 38 people in Nakhichevan and over 200 ethnic Talysh.
The current escalation is completely different from the previous ones. Iran's actions clearly demonstrate firmness in their intentions. The ongoing exercises and the dispersed thesis of the return of some territories of Azerbaijan are a call for Iranian interests to be taken into account in geopolitical games in the Caucasus.
What is happening now is a response to the actions of Turkey and Azerbaijan on their borders. However, the significance of the Zangezur corridor is extremely high not only for the countries of the region, but also for other political players who will continue its implementation.
Part 3: Who needs the Zangezur corridor?
In Zangezur, the interests of several parties collide. They can be divided into three groups: local (Armenia and Azerbaijan), regional (Turkey and Iran) and global (Great Britain, Israel and Russia).
Local
The significance of the corridor for Azerbaijan, first of all, is to create a direct road with the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic and free the region from the blockade.
This route will provide ground communication between Azerbaijan and Turkey. This fact will make it possible to remove the dependence of Azerbaijanis on transit through Iranian territory.
Connecting with the enclave and laying out a trade route will make a significant contribution to the growth of the economy in the southern regions, create preconditions for investment in infrastructure and improve the lives of the population.
For Armenia, the opening of this route will also make it possible to remove the land blockade and, in the future, to create a railway route with Iran and Russia. This will have a positive impact on the economy not only of the Syunik region, but of the whole of Armenia.
However, despite its advantages, in the form of profit for transit, representatives of the political authorities in Yerevan are afraid of the possible consequences of the project.
Armenia believes that the opening of the corridor will be a violation of the country's sovereignty. According to a tripartite statement dated November 10, 2020, the FSB of Russia will exercise control over customs posts. And the Armenians will not have control.
Therefore, the geopolitical risks for Armenia are many times greater than the economic benefits. Because of this, the Pashinyan administration in Yerevan is actively delaying the opening of the transport hub.
Regional
For Turkey, the Zangezur Corridor promises huge benefits. In addition to direct communication with Azerbaijan and reducing Iranian influence on transit, the corridor will create a faster route to Central Asian markets.
And direct access to Central Asia is essentially a geopolitical bridge for the spread of pan-Turkism to the Central Asian countries and their de facto integration into the Anglo-Saxon concept of the “Great Turan”.
With the implementation of this project, the Turkish dream of creating a transit hub between Europe and Asia will become a reality, which will significantly increase the status of the country on the world stage.
For Iran, the corridor will bring twofold consequences. On the one hand, the influence on Azerbaijan and Turkey will be weakened during transit through Iran.
Tehran fears that the unidentified legal status of the route will allow it to be used for military purposes - for the unnoticed transfer of people and equipment and destabilization of the situation in the northwestern part of Iran.
At the same time, in theory, Iran will be able to join the North-South transport corridor and gain access to Russia and the Black Sea, bypassing Azerbaijan.
Global
For Russia, under the sanctions imposed, the Zangezur corridor is an alternative route to the Caucasus and Turkey, and in transit through Iran, to the Middle East and Africa.
Russia will thus increase its influence in the Transcaucasian region and weaken the position of hostile Georgia in the sphere of transit through its territory. A land route with Armenia will also be provided.
According to the 2020 agreement, control over the transit hub will be carried out by the Russian side. In this scenario, Russia will be able to monitor cargo flows along one of the most promising routes in the Transcaucasus in the future and secure its borders from the possible spread of pan-Turkism and extremist ideology in the Caucasus.
Britain is another beneficiary if the route is opened. The spread of Turkish influence in the world was made possible thanks to the Anglo-Saxons and their desire to recreate the British Empire 2.0.
The corridor will strengthen the position of the Anglo-Saxons and promote the necessary anti-Russian or anti-Chinese policy in the Caucasus and Central Asian countries through the Turkish state entity.
However, all this is possible only if the Russian Federation is removed from the Karabakh conflict settlement process, since the direct presence of Russia in the political processes in the Transcaucasus will not allow the Anglo-Saxons to fully gain a foothold.
It is for this purpose that the consistent destabilization of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and the destruction of relations between Armenia and Russia are being carried out.
Another beneficiary of the opening of the corridor is Israel. Military cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel has been developing more and more intensively in recent years.
Influence on the Zangezur corridor will seriously hit Iranian interests, as it will actually eliminate Iran's monopoly on transit services in the South Caucasus.
And the financing by the Israeli authorities of various projects on the territory of Azerbaijan makes it possible to secretly place the infrastructure necessary for conducting intelligence near the Iranian borders, as well as to consolidate its presence in the country.
A large ethnic diaspora of Jews lives in Azerbaijan - adherents of the ideology of Chabad (an ultra-orthodox Judeo-Nazi branch of Judaism), which have significant influence in Azerbaijan.
In the implementation of the project, the interests of many states collide, which creates the prerequisites for an artificial escalation of the situation in order to provide more favorable conditions for themselves.
On the one hand, a coalition of Turks and Azerbaijanis united by one goal under the control of the Anglo-Saxons, on the other, Russia, Iran, and Armenia, pursuing absolutely opposite tasks, as well as Israel acting only in its own interests.
The goal of the Anglo-Saxons at the moment is to completely squeeze Russia out of the South Caucasus and remove it from participation in political processes in the region. NATO countries are putting total pressure on the Pashinyan administration in order to completely destroy Armenian-Russian relations and discredit Russia as a guarantor of stability.
Given the intransigence in the views of some countries in the region, no changes are expected in this direction in the short term and there are no prospects for resolving the conflict.
The further situation will develop depending on many factors, including the growing economic crisis and its consequences, as well as developments in Ukraine.
Despite the tenseness of the current situation, there are no sharply negative trends in the development of the situation at the moment, and this allows us to remain cautiously optimistic.
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