Is the fascist dictatorship in little imperialist Turkiye in "panic mode"?

Under the leadership of R.T. Erdogan, with mainly the backing of "new capitalists" (we somehow call it Anatolian  section) the dictatorship in most cases have been successful in playing both sides (Russia and US) for a quite long time. It was not only (although mainly) due to its geopolitical value for both Russia and the US, but the leverages it had on both in some regions and events. Since the appearance of a possibility of raproachment and/or concessions between Russia and US, it seems like that "fake kingdom of Erdogan" is in panic mode. 

I am not going to pretend that I know the reasons and the extend of this panic in details, however, I can see/read the manifestation of  this panic in its statements and his actions.

Erdogan's meeting with Zelensky and his statement (plus the other important developments in Turkey) in characters that may possibly  turn himself to his "guest" Zelensky's current situation; a "dead man walking". 

Ignorant Zelensky with his insulting statements about Trump, not only risked all his future but also all his assets in banks, his multi million dollar villas in Hawaii, Florida and who knows where else. He is politically and as common sense so ignorant that he is not even capable of recognizing the personality of Trump; a man with a a huge ego and known for not forgetting anything that is done against him. 

In this sense, Erdogan is lucky to a degree that Putin is a cool headed, calculated and intelligent man that puts the politics and economics ahead of anything. While Putin has been firmly stating that no territorial concessions and peace keeping force is accepted for any "peace talks", Erdogan speaks of "sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine" and "its land",  he means that all the occupied, annexed lands have to be returned to Ukraine.  This is a hypocrisy and ignorance of a man who while he is occupying Syria and installing a proxy government there.

He is making this statement when, it seems that, politically he will have no more leverage on Russia because Ukraine as we know will not exist soon. Same political ignorance and personal ego. All of a sudden he forgot that he needs Russia in Syria in order to balance the power, and create a stable country  to be able to  invest in and plunder it.  Its economic leverage if any over Russia may become irrelevant and turn the table upside down. These are stupid moves of a person who has no knowledge of diplomacy- in this sense he resembles Trump but Trump is a street smart with vast experience in business and management.  

The irony is that with his statement he is not "playing" both differently  anymore but playing against both as an "independent power" . While even super power China has carrying out diplomacy in building alliances, Erdogan with lack of any sense of diplomacy but treachery trying to play alone in the world arena. Most likely upset with the selection of Riyad rather than Ankara for the US-Russian talks, he is doubling down on his acts of treachery without even thinking why Russia and US have made such a choice. In addition to his statements about Ukraine which no one except few disappointed leaders of Europe consider to be realistic. After betrayal in Syria, with his rhetorical hypocrisy he is facing both Russia and US against him. He may be thinking of deployment of it troops in Ukraine as "peace keeping force". However, he forgets, again , that Russia will not accept any peace keeping force from NATO countries under any flag. This perspective proceeds from the assumption that there will be a "peace talk" and a definite demarcated "border" between Russia and Ukraine without acknowledging and carrying out all Russian conditions. Turkiye will be losing its leverage against Russia in its war against Ukraine yet still thinks it has a better leverage on the side with its military power. It is not clear at the moment who has a leverage in Syria, but US has an economic leverage on Turkiye.

He is putting himself against both Russia and USA at a time when he is facing big troubles in Syria which may extend to the regions he is extending in Africa and Central Asia.

The development in Turkey regarding the Kurdish question, I tend to believe  is a part of the "fantasy" of the dictatorship. The leader of PKK had consistently and insistently repeated that ; " 

"...It is certain that Turkey will gain the power to act as a leading country in the region with the power it derives from its internal peace. The leadership period in the Middle East will mean being effective from Central Asia to the Balkans and the Caucasus. The solution power of the democratic system will also lead to the rightful intervention and support being given and requested in these regions where there are many contradictions and problems, especially peace.”... “The PKK ceasing to be a military problem will pave the way for a political solution to the Kurdish problem and will also mean ceasing to be a political problem. A process will be initiated from forcing the integrity and unity of the state to give it strength. ..“Here, Turkey will have the chance to transform not only protection from great dangers but also the opposite, that is, a source of power. The military war capabilities of the PKK, both domestically and internationally, will be at the service of Turkey with the solution…” (Apo. Öcalan, Defense Regarding the Fundamentals)

Is the dictatorship considering his offer ? I do not know. However, it is obvious that such a development , as I responded to a question of a comrade ; "If they are smart, they will pave the way for developments in this direction (at least gradually). In this way, they will kill two birds with one stone. First, they will put the Kurdish working people to sleep with some small concessions (or rather, by guaranteeing some of their rights), and second, they will completely draw a movement that is already the greatest enemy of the Left in Turkey in practice and theory (in my opinion) and has caused it the greatest harm, to their side, again for the same purpose."

Thus, it may or may not be within their "little imperialist" game. I have no enough data to make a concrete evaluation and draw a conclusion on this subject. But there is obviously some attempts for "peace" and/or threats

Another important development is what appears to be the emergence of the conflict between the "new capital-MUSIAD" represented by Erdogan and "old capital-TUSIAD".

The conflict between TUSİAD (old capital) and  MUSIAD (new capital) actually defines the concept of fascism in one of its main character. The imposition of one group of their leadership on the others through a dictatorship is the exact explanation of Fascism in this category. The first and most important task of the dictatorship which comes to power by the support of one of the "hegemonic" group  is to "reconcile" the contradictions within the groups that makes up the ruling classes. In other words, to gain the support of the other group that is not "dominant" anymore,  the dictatorship will work in the interests of both theoretically and practically. While supporting mainly one, it prepares the grounds for the plunder by both. Historically, this is what happened in both Germany and Italy.

For the "ultra left" chatterers who only repeat memorized slogans, this conflict may not be important and look away by saying that "the conflict among them is not our concern". However for Marxist Leninists, any subject and outcome of that subject that affects the laboring masses is a subject that Marxist Leninists are concerned with. Lenin's evaluation is an important one; "An enemy stronger than oneself can be defeated only at the cost of the utmost tension of forces and the smallest "rift" between the enemies, … the smallest conflict of interests between the various groups and categories of the bourgeoisie within the country, and also if the smallest opportunity is used with the greatest care and alertness, in the most skillful and intelligent way, in order to win over to one's side a numerically powerful ally, even if it is a temporary ally, even if it is shaky, even if it is conditional, even if it is not so solid and reliable....Whoever has not understood this truth has not understood anything about Marxism, or about contemporary scientific socialism in general. (Lenin, Left Communism)

I am not sure and have no knowledge on how serious the conflict among them and its manifestation is. However, all these development may well be indications of possible internal (with the interference of external) conflict that may have serious consequences either  positive or negative. 

One thing i am sure of is that if the "self declared king" keeps on going on the path he is going, he may well end up in the same category of Zelensky in the near future; "a dead man walking" 

Erdogan A
February 20, 2025