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Taiwan Elections; prelude to war or peace. Western Media Narratives on Taiwan- fantasies and fallacies.

Treating Taiwan as an independent country in practice yet accepting One China policy.

Including the UN, US, all claim that they have one China policy and they do not support Taiwan's Independence, yet they support the “independence” of Taiwan.

Through the manipulation and fallacies the western media created a false reality in the minds of people that Taiwan is an independent country and China is bullying and trying to conquer Taiwan by force and the West is helping a sovereign country and standing up for Taiwan. They are encouraging separatism and militarization in Taiwan to create a nation for their proxy war against China. With their  hypocrisy they are violating the international law which is not an exception to Taiwan but their common practice.

Same hypocritical phrase such “Taiwan’s future should be decided by its own people “is used to deceive the people as if they are not interfering the internal affairs of Taiwan but letting the people decide. This phrase by itself clearly deceptive and assumes that Taiwan is an independent country while they claim it is not by officially accepting the “One China Policy”.  All the facts has shown that in Taiwan decisions regarding Taiwan is not being made by the people of Taiwan or by DPP but by Washington. The WikiLeaks reports have sufficient evidence to support that fact,  in addition to the actual policies followed by the DPP designed by the US.

Taiwan is not a member of the United Nations. In reality, only Vatican City and 12 of the 193 UN countries recognize Taiwan as of 2023.  It is interesting to know which ” sovereign countries” these are; Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, Holy See (Vatican City), Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Tuvalu. Honduras cut ties with Taiwan and recognized “One China Policy”  last year.

Taiwanese Economy

Statistics tell more than words. Taiwan's largest trade partner is China.

Exports





Imports

It is obvious that   DPP’s anti-China policy and separatism will be a destructive affect on Taiwanese economy. It will benefit the US interests rather than the interests of Taiwanese people at their expense.



NED (National Endowment for Democracy) and DPP.

As in most countries in the world, especially in South East Asia, NED and its subsidiary organizations are very active in Taiwan. They have a subsidiary in Taiwan called Taiwan Foundation for Democracy. It is no secret that DPP and the Taiwan president frequently meet in “cooperation “ with and for the “Global Assembly of the World Movement for Democracy” another subsidiary of NED. It is a way to secure a useful proxy role in the implementation of US policies in the country.

Fantasies of The West being spread in Taiwan in specific and Asia in general

There are so many extensions of Western Media in Asia from Nikkei to South China Morning Post, from WION to Asia Sentinel with their own numerous subsidiaries spreading the fantasy and fallacies of the Western Neo-cons. The reality on the ground is gradually changing after the collapse of Western Media Narratives in relation to Ukraine war. How ever they are still dominant in shaping the minds of people and creating false reality. It is not surprising that even in the US these fantasies and fallacies are being challenged and debunked by some popular liberal, anti-communist academicians and  ex-military officials, there are very few debunking the fallacies in South East Asia. Both for the war in Ukraine and on the possibility of a China US war (and the war in Gaza). American conservative Colonel Douglass MacGregor, Liberal Professor Jeffrey Sachs and numerous other conservatives leading the debunking and making objective assessments.

One of those group of critiques, Professor John Mearsheimer while being objective on the issue of Ukraine and to some degree on Gaza, he is reiterating the Neo-Con Western fantasies with a subjective approach  to a possible war with China issue. Like all the other subjective analysists, he takes the issue as a war against China by itself with an alliance of South Korea, Japan, Philippines, and Australia. The current world  reality however requires (at the least) North Korea and Russia to be considered and added to the equation  as allies of China in the case of a US war against China. Anyone who does not add them to the equation would be far from understanding the current realities of the world and the existential strategic alliances. A possible war of US with its allies against China will instantly bring about a war against North Korea and Russia. So the equation is not a war between the US and its allies against China alone but a war between the alliances; a war against China, Russia, and North Korea.

With this equation, as Colonel McGregor puts it, is a fantasy and fallacy of Ne-Cons and there is no way to win a war against that alliance. South Korea has no chances against North Korea, neither has Japan any chance to win a war against Russia. Also, it is questionable that Japan, one of the 5 top countries in world economy will risk its future by being a proxy to the US.  So the equation comes down to thousands of miles away US with waging war against the China, Russia, North Korea with Philippines, and Australia. The question of Philippines in an outright war cannot be considered without the question of Socialist Guerillas who are waging a long war against the government. So, it is hopeless and counterproductive for the Philippines to participate in a proxy war against China regardless of all their rhetoric.

It is the accepted fact that no country or any alliance of countries can beat the US from thousands of miles away.  The same goes for China and for Russia who has proven so far that it is not beatable by the West on its own borders.

Thus, since the war of US (alliance) against China (alliance) could most likely be a proxy war, winning that war is a fantasy of Neo-Cons and their puppets in those countries. As the war in Ukraine clearly showed us, such a war would only bring about destruction of the proxy countries and suffering of their people.

Such fantasies and fallacies spread by the Western Media and the Puppets of NED in those countries can only serve to the continuation of their puppet regimes and to the “livelihood” of their puppets whether it be the leaders of NGO organizations or academicians/politicians on their payroll.

Nothing is stagnant but bound to change in time, especially at times where the truth rises from the pile of fallacies and myths are shuttered, the changes becomes inevitable and unpreventable.

We have already seen the gradual changes in the minds of Taiwanese people and “softening” on the part of some of the leading politicians. The elections will be another indication- to some degree-  of this change in Taiwan. We will wait and see.

Election

In Taiwan, about 19.5 million people are registered to vote. The participation for the election has been relatively high in the last two elections – at 66.27 percent in 2016 and 74.9 percent in 2020 and expected to be higher for this elections. The impact of the US proxy war in Ukraine and Beijing’s words  as to “the DPP as a political “separatists” and that a vote for the party is akin to a vote for “war” in the Taiwan Strait” may play a significant role despite all the possibilities of US mingling and election frauds. All the polls for the last decade show an increasing tendency to the preservation of the “status quo” which is around %90 + with less than %10 for the separation. The “status quo” tendency is divided in two; one is for closer ties with China other is for closer ties with both China and the US in different degrees. DPP represents the separatists group but has ethnic anti-China followers who tend to be more for US than China.

The elections results may be a better indication of the tendencies of Taiwanese people.

We will wait and see if the spoke person of the State Council’s Taiwan Affairs words will have any affect on the election who stated; "Taiwan independence" is incompatible with peace in the Taiwan Straits and goes against the interests and well-being of the people in Taiwan. Only with peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits and peaceful development of cross-Straits relations can the people in Taiwan live a peaceful, secure, and prosperous life”… hope that the majority of the compatriots on the island of Taiwan will recognize the extreme harm of the DPP's "Taiwan independence" path and the extreme danger of Lai's provocation of cross-Straits conflicts, and make the right choice at the crossroads of cross-Straits relations, to create a new situation of friendly support and prosperous development between compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Straits.”

Parties

Democratic Progressive Party (incumbent)

Presidential Candidate; Lai Ching-te. Currently Vice President of the Republic of China since 2020, became Chairmen of the party on January 2023. Lai "visited" the US to lobby Washington to support him in the election, despite the opposition of Taiwan compatriots fearing that would come at the cost of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.


Vice President candidate; Hsiao Bi-khim. Born in Kōbe, Japan, to a Taiwanese father and an American mother. Raised in America. She became active with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) representative office in the US, serving as an activity coordinator. Became an adviser to the National Security Council in March 2020. Same year in  June, Hsiao was appointed Taiwan's representative to the United States. On 20 November 2023, Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Lai Ching-te officially named Hsiao his vice presidential candidate for the 2024 presidential election. She is a diehard “Taiwan independence” separatist and pro US candidate.  Always docile and obedient to the US, she is  more like a "US representative to Taiwan".

DPP secessionists use the typical fallacy tactics of Collective Neo-Con West and have the same fantasy of believing that the US can be relied on as a protective umbrella for their attempt to seek "Taiwan independence".  Fear and warmongering tactics of secessionists continues despite the fact that China repeatedly stresses that it seeks the peaceful reunification of the island, but the use of force is an alternative it will resort to if necessary.

Taiwan's two main opposition parties, the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP)

The Kuomintang (KMT) - Chinese Nationalist Party(CNP)

Presidential Candidate; Hou Yu-ih, Mayor of New Taipei with %62 vote in 2022 versus % 57 of vote in 2018 against DPP. He was drafted by the Kuomintang on 17 May 2023 to be its nominee for the presidency. In his December 7 2023 speech, Hou Yu-ih said that if elected, he will seek to maintain friendly relations with both China and the United States. He pointed out that the current administration's foreign policy has seen several diplomatic allies sever relations with Taiwan, a complete inability to participate in regional economic organizations, and a breakdown in cross-strait communications. Since Tsai assumed office in 2016, a total of nine countries have severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and official communications with China have been non-existent. Hou argued that "Tsai's policy does not work," advocating instead for a more balanced pro-U.S. and pro-China stance. (https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202312070015)

Hou further elaborated on his position, calling for strong alignment with the United States while also stressing the importance of communicating with China.

Vice President Candidate; Jaw Shaw-kong

Jaw is a staunch supporter of unification with China https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202311240014 and believes unification is not possible under the current circumstances. He opposes Taiwanese independence, saying there would be no war across the Taiwan Strait as long as Taiwan did not formally declare independence. He believes the current focus of Cross-Strait relations should be peaceful development, and that it was for the next generation in both sides to see which political system "would bring the greatest happiness to the people." (Apple Daily (in Chinese). 31 May 2018)

It is said that the support for the KMT generally tend to be stronger in majority-Hakka and Mandarin-speaking counties of Taiwan, in contrast to the Hokkien-majority southwestern counties that tend to support the Democratic Progressive Party.

KMT favors closer relations with the PRC and the CCP. It also opposes Chinese unification under the "one country, two systems" framework  and any non-peaceful means to resolve the cross-strait disputes. KMT also accepts the 1992 Consensus, which defines both sides of the Taiwan Strait as "one China “with different interpretations of it.

Taiwan People's Party (TPP)

It was formally established on 6 August 2019 by Ko Wen-je.

Presidential candidate; Ko Wen-je, previous Mayor of Taipei.

Ko Wen-je said that he would follow incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen's  foreign policy if elected. (December 6 2023 speech) However, when he was a mayor of Taipei, Ko has expanded the city's relationship with mainland China. While in 2014, Ko mentioned that his strategic goals are the same as those of the DPP, Ko's stances started shifting.

Vice President candidate; Cynthia Wu; She worked for subsidiaries of Merrill Lynch in the United Kingdom and the Shin Kong Group in Taiwan before she was appointed to the Legislative Yuan in 2022. She was born in the United States, lived in the UK. Wu worked for Merrill Lynch in London. She is married to a Belgian Baron, a Belgian elite since 2022.

Coalitions

The pan-Blue coalition is a political coalition in the Republic of China (Taiwan) consisting of the Kuomintang (KMT), People First Party (PFP), New Party (CNP), Non-Partisan Solidarity Union (NPSU), and Young China Party (YCP) which maintains that the Republic of China instead of the People's Republic of China is the legitimate government of China, favors a Chinese and Taiwanese dual identity over an exclusive Taiwanese identity, and favors greater friendly exchange with Mainland China, as opposed to the Pan-Green Coalition (a coalition of DPP).

Erdogan A
January 11, 2024
Thailand

 

 

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