Trump’s “face saving exit” strategy; peace or capitulation is awaiting Ukraine?

Trump’s “face saving exit” strategy; peace or capitulation is awaiting Ukraine?

In my last week’s article “What is the primary goal of US "peace talks" with Russia?” I stated that “No Marxist Leninist who is capable of applying the dialectics of  Marxism would believe that the primary goal of this "meeting" (and possible following one(s)) is the "peace" in Ukraine… I strongly believe that the Ukraine issue is a dead-end as far as a "peace deal" is concerned. And so I believe that the "negotiations" mainly related to trapping Russia in to a position of "neutrality" on the matter of China. It is a pipedream. It will, at best, end as an act of "image-damage control"”  

Last year when I predicted that the US is ”cornered in Israel issue, but they are already setting up a “face saving exit"  from the Ukraine war issue”, some “theoreticians” of NED-funded “communist parties” had made ridiculing comments. Expectedly so, same theoreticians are, with their Neo-Con ( I am not even saying Trotskyite)  perspectives made ridiculing comments on my prediction of “capitulation of Ukraine”. Listening Radosław Sikorski, most likely the “rising star of Ukraine”, in UN General Assembly, New York today was another confirmation of my “suspect” of these so called “communist parties” who carry out the same narratives with some left sounding words on the issue of Ukraine in specific and world in general. It is a repetition of the same tactics used before, during and after second World War; narratives of fascists brushed with leftist colors.  They are simply NGOs formed in the shape of communist parties to serve the interests of hegemonic imperialist policies. It is not coincidence that these people with pretentious names like; Chinese Com. XX, Australian Com. XX, Italian Com. XX and Revolutionary CO. xx (born in the US and known to be financed by even Rockefeller) are all under the guise of "Maoists", because they lack the basic Leninist theory and application there of the dialectics of Marxism and they could easily be exposed if they claimed to be Leninist and Stalinist.

Going back to the subject of “face saving exit”, it has become so evident that US- Trump is looking for a “face saving exit” at the expense of not only Ukraine but also EU and NATO. All his latest comments are fundamentally against Ukraine and Europe, and against their  voiced interests. (That does not mean that the interests voiced are actually and in concrete realities represent the interests of European people). Trump's proposed “solutions” are, almost in its entirety in an unacceptable character by Ukraine primarily, and by the EU elites secondarily. His narratives, comments, and solutions seem to have expectations of not to be accepted. In other words, it seems that Trump and his administration consciously proposing unacceptable solutions with negative comments about Zelensky and European leaders. Trump and his administration with comments like “Zelensky is a dictator”, “he had three years to make a negotiation”, “he is losing the war and will lose” , “we have a beautiful Ocean between us”, EU leaders are anti-democratic”, “they have to defend themselves” etc., is setting up the ground for the “face saving exit” of the US. The latest ground for “face saving exit” is the demagogy of paying back the grants given to Ukraine with concessions on Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. It is a demagogy, because first of all they were all given by the previous administration as “grants” not as “loans. Secondly, the “rare earth minerals” of Ukraine is a grossly exaggerated myth and if not most, at least half of them is in the region that has become Russian land. In reality these claims are directed for the consumption of American people to rally them up on his side, create consensus, justify his “desertion” of Ukraine war, and prepare for the “face saving exit”. He wants to summarize the issue as; “we have done everything we could do, sent them arms and ammunitions, we sent billions of dollars but they couldn’t succeed” , and “it is time to pull back and concentrate on our own problems”. As long as we do not see any unexpected changes in the balance of powers, US-Trump will carry out a “face saving exit” from Ukraine. 

Question of “peace” in Ukraine

Unlike the delusional expectations and beliefs of some “experts”, Trump administration is not “collapsing the deep state”, it is reshaping it. Trump administration is the China-phobia faction of the  Ne-Cons, the deep state of the finance capital-Military industrial Complex. As I have noted on the previous article; “They have admitted the transformation of unipolar world to multi-polar world. Actually, listening and reading the statements, if we  unpack them;  in their mind, it is "bilateral" world; China vs USA.  They still believe that they can drive a wedge between China and Russia, or at least they can put Russia in a neutral position through improving economic relations with Russia. So,  primary goal of these "negotiations" will focus on determining "how to peel Russia off China", and what kind of "concessions" should be given to Russia that can bring about such results… The second primary goal is the question of Iran… Only the last matter of the agenda they have is related to Ukraine… In other words, they are not there to get "concessions" from Russia, but to offer "concessions "in order to achieve their China-phobia policy goals.” 

Ukraine matter, as far as “peace” is concerned, is a dead end without the capitulation of Ukraine. That, in addition to the reality of multi-polar world order, is another reality the Trump and his administration is well aware of. In addition to Putin, Lavrov stated that “Moscow will not accept peacekeeping forces from NATO countries in Ukraine under any peace deal. "Any appearance by armed forces under some other flag does not change anything. It is of course completely unacceptable” and “" there could be no thought of territorial concessions to Ukraine".  

The ”talks” without addressing the root cause of the given conflict, that is  NATO's excessive dominance and expansion over Europe, cannot reach to any conclusion. That means the issue is not only Ukraine but NATO. With the stance of EU elite, despite the fact that the CEO of the largest Military Industrial Complex spelling out the fact that Europe’s military arsenal is depleted- translate that to the fact that NATO cannot wage a winning war against Russia, if Ukraine and Europe do not accept the capitulation, a consensus will not be able to materialize.

Under current conditions, as we have noted in 2022 at the early stages of the war, “the longer the war lasts, the more territories Ukraine will lose”. Same year we have stated that the realization of overall strategy of Russia requires not only the four oblasts to be “liberated” but also Kharkov, Dnieper, Nikolaev and most likely Odessa. Russia will not accept any deal that, at the minimum, the autonomy of these regions in some form of shape guaranteed.  

The concrete reality of the concrete situation is that no one; neither Europe nor US has any leverage over Russia to dictate any peace agreement. Thus, it is an illusion to speak of any peace deal before the "capitulation" of Ukraine. A “peace deal” or “peace negotiation” can only be a part of the “capitulation treaty”. 

The events look like will follow a “face saving exit” of US from Ukraine war which will be followed by the “capitulation of Ukraine” and as a result of which a” peace deal”.  All of which means the “defeat and collapse  of the Western myth and supremacy”.

Erdogan A

February 24, 2025